Read Harry Cobden's Blog At PlanetSportBet Handicap – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

16:50

Read Harry Cobden's Blog At PlanetSportBet Handicap

Date 2024-04-11

Distance 2m102y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £3,716

Runners (8)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (4)	Savvy Brilliance Bay J:Robert Havlin T:S Woods	J:Robert Havlin T:S Woods	137	—	8211-1	76	85	72	95d	—	—	-17	34.4	0.15/1	8/13 62%
Did really well to complete hat-trick at Wolverhampton when carried wide; big player
6 (6)	Churchella Bay J:David Nolan T:David O'Meara	J:David Nolan T:David O'Meara	129	v	1-2510	68	81	74	13d	—	—	+5	14	1.88/1	15/2 12%
C&D winner; ruined chance with very slow start at Chelmsford latest; can't be ruled out
4 (1)	Pons Aelius Bay J:Jason Hart T:Charlie Johnston	J:Jason Hart T:Charlie Johnston	135	—	649-70	72	90	71	13d	—	—	-1	8	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Yet to fire in two runs this year, visored last at Lingfield latest; has a bit to prove
7 (7)	Dark Mystery Bay J:Clifford Lee T:B F Brookhouse	J:Clifford Lee T:B F Brookhouse	127	t	0546-9	64	81	55	68d	—	—	-3	5.9	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Winless since 2022 but not discredited when ninth at Wolver latest; possibilities
3 (5)	Evening Story Bay J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	135	—	116-94	74	85	64	14d	—	—	+2	7.6	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Only fair fourth here a fortnight ago; needs to take a step forward on first go over 2m
8 (2)	Rock N Roll Pinkie Chestnut J:Marco Ghiani T:Ivan Furtado	J:Marco Ghiani T:Ivan Furtado	124	—	157-06	63	80	48	79d	—	—	0	4.3	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Not disgraced in cheekpieces when sixth here in January; no forlorn hope now up in trip
1 (8)	El Borracho Brown J:Harry Russell T:Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	J:Harry Russell T:Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	138	t	3/152-	75	83	-	—	—	—	+6	9.2	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Good Pontefract second in August and in winning form over fences since; needs considering
NR (3)	Seahouses Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:Barry Brennan	J:NON-RUNNER T:Barry Brennan	133	v	7257-7	72	-	-	15d	—	—	—	5.5	—	—
Yet to register a victory and he beat only one in 2m Kempton handicap 15 days ago

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Savvy Brilliance	8/13	8/13	8/13	8/13	8/13
Churchella	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Pons Aelius	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Dark Mystery	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1
Evening Story	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Rock N Roll Pinkie	18/1	18/1	18/1	18/1	18/1
El Borracho	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Savvy Brilliance

34.4

OR: 6.5 Form: 10 Odds: 17.9

8/13

2nd

Churchella

OR: 4.5 Form: 7 Odds: 2.5

15/2

3rd

El Borracho

9.2

OR: 6.3 Form: 2.1 Odds: 0.9

22/1

Pons Aelius

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

15/2

Evening Story

7.6

OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

12/1

Dark Mystery

5.9

OR: 3.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

8/1

Seahouses

5.5

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Rock N Roll Pinkie

4.3

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

18/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Savvy Brilliance	76	85	72
El Borracho	75	83	—
Evening Story	74	85	64
Pons Aelius	72	90	71
Seahouses	72	—	—
Churchella	68	81	74
Dark Mystery	64	81	55
Rock N Roll Pinkie	63	80	48

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Churchella	13d ago	Quick return
Pons Aelius	13d ago	Quick return
Evening Story	14d ago	Fit
Seahouses	15d ago	Fit
Dark Mystery	68d ago	Fresh
Rock N Roll Pinkie	79d ago	Fresh
Savvy Brilliance	95d ago	Long break
El Borracho	—	—