Paul Dean's First Visit To Windsor Handicap (Div I)

Windsor

15:50

Date 2024-04-15

Distance 6f12y

Class Class 4

Going Good

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £5,653

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
9 (1)	Tiriac Bay J:David Probert T:Jack Channon	J:David Probert T:Jack Channon	124	—	62435-	74	98	90	163d	—	—	0	13.6	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Ties in closely with Amazonian Dream on C&D running in October; best form on soft/heavy
3 (7)	Leap Abroad Bay J:Owen Lewis(7) T:Paul & Oliver Cole	J:Owen Lewis(7) T:Paul & Oliver Cole	131	t	016-82	81	97	93	23d	—	—	-1	11.4	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Posted a sound effort on latest AW start; remains favourably treated on historical data
10 (2)	Tiger Bay Bay J:Trevor Whelan T:Henry Candy	J:Trevor Whelan T:Henry Candy	124	—	/1523-	74	96	77	282d	—	—	+7	18.8	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Similar type to Surrey Noir; could be dangerous provided the return to 6f proves no issue
7 (6)	Brazen Idol Brown J:Richard Kingscote T:John Butler	J:Richard Kingscote T:John Butler	127	—	45-106	77	97	-	14d	—	—	-1	9.6	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Largely consistent; better than bare result last time; can't rule out a good effort
8 (12)	Surrey Noir Bay J:Kieran Shoemark T:Charlie Fellowes	J:Kieran Shoemark T:Charlie Fellowes	125	p	55214-	75	94	62	194d	—	—	+9	18.4	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Still not fully exposed; possibilities provided he copes with the drop back to 6f
4 (8)	Amazonian Dream Bay J:Jack Gilligan T:Rod Millman	J:Jack Gilligan T:Rod Millman	130	h	32731-	80	99	84	182d	—	—	+16	23.9	2.13/1	17/2 11%
First run since C&D win in October; likely player provided he returns in same form
6 (11)	Dear Daphne Bay J:Callum Shepherd T:George Scott	J:Callum Shepherd T:George Scott	128	—	/2421-	78	98	73	311d	—	—	+17	24.1	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Absent since Thirsk success last June; has low mileage; the type to improve further
1 (3)	Under The Twilight Bay J:Harry Davies T:Michael Blake	J:Harry Davies T:Michael Blake	136	—	98251-	86	100	87	193d	—	—	+17	23.1	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Absent since Salisbury success in October; close second over C&D last summer; solid
5 (4)	Champagne Sarah Chestnut J:David Egan T:Mike Murphy & Michael Keady	J:David Egan T:Mike Murphy & Michael Keady	130	—	22043-	80	97	87	186d	—	—	+9	14.4	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Generally consistent and has place possibilities on seasonal debut
2 (9)	Marlay Park b/br J:Pat Cosgrave T:Jim Boyle	J:Pat Cosgrave T:Jim Boyle	133	—	44124-	83	95	88	163d	—	—	+14	17.8	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Something to prove, having gained all handicap wins over 7f at Epsom
11 (5)	Violets Star Bay J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Adam West	J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Adam West	122	—	201-0	72	92	73	22d	—	—	+4	6.2	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Won a weak maiden last summer; failed to beat a rival on reappearance; not solid
12 (10)	El Hibri Bay J:Georgia Dobie(3) T:Ian Williams	J:Georgia Dobie(3) T:Ian Williams	116	—	104157	66	95	77	67d	—	—	+8	9.4	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Has done his winning in Class 6 on AW; stiffer task in this grade back on turf

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Tiriac	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Leap Abroad	5/1	5/1	5/1	5/1	5/1
Tiger Bay	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2
Brazen Idol	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2
Surrey Noir	7/1	7/1	7/1	7/1	7/1
Amazonian Dream	17/2	17/2	17/2	17/2	17/2
Dear Daphne	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1
Under The Twilight	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Champagne Sarah	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1
Marlay Park	18/1	18/1	18/1	18/1	18/1
Violets Star	28/1	28/1	28/1	28/1	28/1
El Hibri	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Dear Daphne

24.1

OR: 7 Form: 15 Odds: 2.1

9/1

2nd

Amazonian Dream

23.9

OR: 7.5 Form: 14.2 Odds: 2.2

17/2

3rd

Under The Twilight

23.1

OR: 9 Form: 12.5 Odds: 1.6

12/1

Tiger Bay

18.8

OR: 6 Form: 9.5 Odds: 3.3

11/2

Surrey Noir

18.4

OR: 6.3 Form: 9.5 Odds: 2.7

7/1

Marlay Park

17.8

OR: 8.3 Form: 8.5 Odds: 1.1

18/1

Champagne Sarah

14.4

OR: 7.5 Form: 5.5 Odds: 1.4

14/1

Tiriac

13.6

OR: 6 Form: 3.6 Odds: 4

9/2

Leap Abroad

11.4

OR: 7.8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

5/1

Brazen Idol

9.6

OR: 6.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

13/2

El Hibri

9.4

OR: 4 Form: 5 Odds: 0.4

50/1

Violets Star

6.2

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

28/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Under The Twilight	86	100	87
Marlay Park	83	95	88
Leap Abroad	81	97	93
Amazonian Dream	80	99	84
Champagne Sarah	80	97	87
Dear Daphne	78	98	73
Brazen Idol	77	97	—
Surrey Noir	75	94	62
Tiriac	74	98	90
Tiger Bay	74	96	77
Violets Star	72	92	73
El Hibri	66	95	77

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Brazen Idol	14d ago	Fit
Violets Star	22d ago	Fit
Leap Abroad	23d ago	Fit
El Hibri	67d ago	Fresh
Tiriac	163d ago	Long break
Marlay Park	163d ago	Long break
Amazonian Dream	182d ago	Long break
Champagne Sarah	186d ago	Long break
Under The Twilight	193d ago	Long break
Surrey Noir	194d ago	Long break
Tiger Bay	282d ago	Long break
Dear Daphne	311d ago	Long break