Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)

Ayr

15:35

Date 2024-04-20

Distance 3m7f176y

Class Class 1

Going Soft

Type Chase

Surface Turf

Age Band 5yo+

Prize £112,540

Runners (26)

EW Terms: 4 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
19	Git Maker Bay J:Gavin Sheehan T:Jamie Snowden	J:Gavin Sheehan T:Jamie Snowden	143	—	11-162	133	161	139	37d	—	—	+13	23.8	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Subsequent Grade 1 winner beat him in the Kim Muir
14	Mr Vango Bay J:Ben Jones T:Mrs Sara V Bradstock	J:Ben Jones T:Mrs Sara V Bradstock	145	p	P3-313	135	168	151	39d	—	—	+15	23.8	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Nearly 3m7f at Exeter (heavy) in February when he made all to win by 60l; 3rd in NH Chase
17	Inis Oirr Bay J:Derek Fox T:Lucinda Russell	J:Derek Fox T:Lucinda Russell	143	v	-U4251	133	164	130	77d	—	—	+27	35.3	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Up 14lb today but his 3m7f Musselburgh win could hardly have been more authoritative
6	Spanish Harlem Chestnut J:Paul Townend T:W P Mullins	J:Paul Townend T:W P Mullins	150	t	2P-333	140	158	112	63d	—	—	+17	24.7	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Going beyond 2m4f may be overdue but recent runs are no proof that he can cut it in this
16	Anglers Crag Black J:Henry Brooke T:Brian Ellison	J:Henry Brooke T:Brian Ellison	144	—	7-1111	134	164	124	56d	—	—	+15	23.5	2.50/1	10/1 9%
4-4 for this yard, latest win the 4m1f Eider on heavy; up another 8lb but on the shortlist
2	Mr Incredible Bay J:Mr P W Mullins T:W P Mullins	J:Mr P W Mullins T:W P Mullins	163	—	23U-2U	153	158	111	7d	—	—	+19	28.3	3.00/1	12/1 8%
2nd in Midlands National (4m2f, heavy) after 336 days off; hampered at Aintree last week
10	Ballygrifincottage Bay J:Harry Skelton T:Dan Skelton	J:Harry Skelton T:Dan Skelton	148	tp	P-3P52	138	167	127	42d	—	—	+17	23.7	4.00/1	16/1 6%
2nd at Sandown (3m) latest; back up 3lb but going beyond 3m1f for first time could help
1	Stay Away Fay Bay J:Harry Cobden T:Paul Nicholls	J:Harry Cobden T:Paul Nicholls	168	t	4-113P	158	162	102	38d	—	—	+22	28.7	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Tops the weights after his Graded events; an outright test of stamina should suit though
11	Macdermott Bay J:Danny Mullins T:W P Mullins	J:Danny Mullins T:W P Mullins	147	—	-682F1	137	160	125	19d	—	—	+29	34.8	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Would be first 6yo to win this for 30 years but latest run showed major staying potential
22	Whacker Clan Bay J:Rachael Blackmore T:Henry De Bromhead	J:Rachael Blackmore T:Henry De Bromhead	142	p	931173	132	160	139	37d	—	—	+28	33.5	4.00/1	16/1 6%
18l behind runner-up Git Maker in the 3m2f Kim Muir last time, the furthest he's been
4	Beauport Bay J:Jordan Nailor T:Nigel Twiston-Davies	J:Jordan Nailor T:Nigel Twiston-Davies	155	—	F-52P1	145	161	110	35d	—	—	+21	25	5.00/1	20/1 5%
In top form to win Midlands National from Mr Incredible at Uttoxeter (4m2f, heavy); up 5lb
15	Autonomous Cloud Bay J:Jonathan Burke T:Fergal O'Brien	J:Jonathan Burke T:Fergal O'Brien	144	t	21-1P4	134	163	109	35d	—	—	+17	22.4	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Back in serious contention latest in Midlands National (4m2f, heavy) but ran out of steam
18	My Silver Lining Grey J:James Best T:Emma Lavelle	J:James Best T:Emma Lavelle	143	—	122123	133	160	119	35d	—	—	+31	36.4	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Rock solid this term, including a win and two places in major long-distance handicaps
8	Iron Bridge Bay J:Jonjo O'Neill Jr T:Jonjo O'Neill	J:Jonjo O'Neill Jr T:Jonjo O'Neill	149	—	2-P23P	139	162	127	35d	—	—	+23	26.7	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Placed in major handicaps and 4m should suit but this season presents rather a mixed story
3	Elvis Mail Grey J:Bruce Lynn(3) T:N W Alexander	J:Bruce Lynn(3) T:N W Alexander	157	t	-17371	147	164	149	13d	—	—	+35	38.7	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Won at Carlisle 13 days ago; has a career-high mark but the longer trip is interesting
20	Surrey Quest Bay J:Kevin Brogan T:Toby Lawes	J:Kevin Brogan T:Toby Lawes	143	t	47-110	133	167	134	84d	—	—	+18	21.6	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Won first two for the yard; well treated judged on latter win (3m2f) but below form latest
26	We'llhavewan Bay J:Kieran Callaghan(5) T:W P Mullins	J:Kieran Callaghan(5) T:W P Mullins	142	tp	916126	132	154	-	19d	—	—	+28	32	8.25/1	33/1 3%
2nd in Grand National Trial but 26l sixth in Irish National itself; 5lb out of handicap
12	Tommie Beau Bay J:Micheal Nolan T:Seamus Mullins	J:Micheal Nolan T:Seamus Mullins	146	—	241123	136	162	144	56d	—	—	+33	37	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Never better than on last two starts (4m1f Eider 3rd latest) but needs a fair bit better
21	Klarc Kent Bay J:Sean O'Keeffe T:W P Mullins	J:Sean O'Keeffe T:W P Mullins	142	—	6-3F32	132	157	91	21d	—	—	+18	21.3	8.25/1	33/1 3%
0-6 over hurdles/fences but some places this term and serious stamina tests could suit
13	Broken Halo Bay J:Bryony Frost T:Paul Nicholls	J:Bryony Frost T:Paul Nicholls	145	t	-FPU21	135	159	122	40d	—	—	+31	34	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Produced late for tidy win at Taunton (3m4f, soft); back up 5lb; could have more to offer
23	Egbert Bay J:Brendan Powell T:Alan King	J:Brendan Powell T:Alan King	142	b	4-1P12	132	158	130	35d	—	—	+19	21.1	12.50/1	50/1 2%
In good form with headgear; 2lb out of the handicap but the move up in trip is interesting
7	Gold Cup Bailly Chestnut J:J J Slevin T:S R B Crawford	J:J J Slevin T:S R B Crawford	150	t	11249-	140	161	75	371d	—	—	+29	30.5	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Should have brought potential to this second chase campaign but he's unraced for a year
9	Whistleinthedark Bay J:Danny McMenamin T:L J Morgan	J:Danny McMenamin T:L J Morgan	148	—	1-8480	138	163	149	37d	—	—	+28	29.5	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Backward steps in major handicaps last two starts; soft ground possibly against him latest
25	Secret Reprieve Bay J:James Turner(7) T:Evan Williams	J:James Turner(7) T:Evan Williams	142	—	923P-6	132	154	104	42d	—	—	+19	21	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Has not had much racing, or recaptured his form, since Welsh National win in January 2021
5	Ontheropes Brown J:Brian Hayes T:W P Mullins	J:Brian Hayes T:W P Mullins	151	t	65/PP7	141	156	122	41d	—	—	+21	23.2	16.50/1	66/1 1%
2021 win at Limerick (3m, soft) is his career-best form by some way and his only chase win
24	Punitive Bay J:William Maggs(7) T:Peter Bowen	J:William Maggs(7) T:Peter Bowen	142	tv	F-0PP3	132	155	100	20d	—	—	+20	20.7	25.00/1	100/1 1%
3m5f win in 2022; lost form for Gordon Elliott; better on yard debut but needs much more

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Git Maker	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2	6/1
Mr Vango	9/1	11/1	9/1	9/1	8/1
Inis Oirr	10/1	11/1	9/1	9/1	9/1
Spanish Harlem	12/1	17/2	11/1	10/1	9/1
Anglers Crag	10/1	9/1	10/1	10/1	9/1
Mr Incredible	12/1	15/2	11/1	10/1	9/1
Ballygrifincottage	16/1	14/1	14/1	11/1	12/1
Stay Away Fay	16/1	16/1	14/1	12/1	14/1
Macdermott	16/1	18/1	12/1	14/1	12/1
Whacker Clan	16/1	16/1	16/1	14/1	14/1
Beauport	20/1	20/1	18/1	18/1	18/1
Autonomous Cloud	18/1	18/1	18/1	16/1	18/1
My Silver Lining	20/1	18/1	20/1	16/1	14/1
Iron Bridge	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1
Elvis Mail	28/1	28/1	25/1	25/1	25/1
Surrey Quest	40/1	33/1	33/1	25/1	28/1
We'llhavewan	33/1	33/1	28/1	28/1	20/1
Tommie Beau	28/1	25/1	33/1	28/1	25/1
Klarc Kent	33/1	25/1	33/1	28/1	33/1
Broken Halo	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	33/1
Egbert	50/1	50/1	40/1	40/1	40/1
Gold Cup Bailly	50/1	50/1	40/1	40/1	40/1
Whistleinthedark	66/1	66/1	66/1	50/1	50/1
Secret Reprieve	66/1	66/1	50/1	50/1	50/1
Ontheropes	66/1	66/1	66/1	50/1	50/1
Punitive	100/1	100/1	100/1	100/1	100/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Elvis Mail

38.7

OR: 24.3 Form: 13.5 Odds: 1

28/1

2nd

Tommie Beau

OR: 21.5 Form: 14.5 Odds: 1

33/1

3rd

My Silver Lining

36.4

OR: 20.8 Form: 14 Odds: 1.6

20/1

Inis Oirr

35.3

OR: 20.8 Form: 12.2 Odds: 2.4

11/1

Macdermott

34.8

OR: 21.8 Form: 11.5 Odds: 1.6

18/1

Broken Halo

OR: 21.3 Form: 12 Odds: 0.7

40/1

Whacker Clan

33.5

OR: 20.5 Form: 11.6 Odds: 1.4

16/1

We'llhavewan

OR: 20.5 Form: 10.5 Odds: 1

33/1

Gold Cup Bailly

30.5

OR: 22.5 Form: 7.5 Odds: 0.5

50/1

Whistleinthedark

29.5

OR: 22 Form: 7 Odds: 0.5

66/1

Stay Away Fay

28.7

OR: 27 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

16/1

Mr Incredible

28.3

OR: 25.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

12/1

Iron Bridge

26.7

OR: 22.3 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1

25/1

Beauport

OR: 23.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Spanish Harlem

24.7

OR: 22.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

12/1

Git Maker

23.8

OR: 20.8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

13/2

Mr Vango

23.8

OR: 21.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

11/1

Ballygrifincottage

23.7

OR: 22 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

16/1

Anglers Crag

23.5

OR: 21 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

10/1

Ontheropes

23.2

OR: 22.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

66/1

Autonomous Cloud

22.4

OR: 21 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

18/1

Surrey Quest

21.6

OR: 20.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

40/1

Klarc Kent

21.3

OR: 20.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

33/1

Egbert

21.1

OR: 20.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

50/1

Secret Reprieve

OR: 20.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

66/1

Punitive

20.7

OR: 20.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

100/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Stay Away Fay	158	162	102
Mr Incredible	153	158	111
Elvis Mail	147	164	149
Beauport	145	161	110
Ontheropes	141	156	122
Spanish Harlem	140	158	112
Gold Cup Bailly	140	161	75
Iron Bridge	139	162	127
Ballygrifincottage	138	167	127
Whistleinthedark	138	163	149
Macdermott	137	160	125
Tommie Beau	136	162	144
Mr Vango	135	168	151
Broken Halo	135	159	122
Anglers Crag	134	164	124
Autonomous Cloud	134	163	109
Git Maker	133	161	139
Inis Oirr	133	164	130
My Silver Lining	133	160	119
Surrey Quest	133	167	134
Whacker Clan	132	160	139
We'llhavewan	132	154	—
Klarc Kent	132	157	91
Egbert	132	158	130
Secret Reprieve	132	154	104
Punitive	132	155	100

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Mr Incredible	7d ago	Quick return
Elvis Mail	13d ago	Quick return
Macdermott	19d ago	Fit
We'llhavewan	19d ago	Fit
Punitive	20d ago	Fit
Klarc Kent	21d ago	Fit
Beauport	35d ago	Fit
Autonomous Cloud	35d ago	Fit
My Silver Lining	35d ago	Fit
Iron Bridge	35d ago	Fit
Egbert	35d ago	Fit
Git Maker	37d ago	Fit
Whacker Clan	37d ago	Fit
Whistleinthedark	37d ago	Fit
Stay Away Fay	38d ago	Fit
Mr Vango	39d ago	Fit
Broken Halo	40d ago	Fit
Ontheropes	41d ago	Fit
Ballygrifincottage	42d ago	Fit
Secret Reprieve	42d ago	Fit
Anglers Crag	56d ago	Fresh
Tommie Beau	56d ago	Fresh
Spanish Harlem	63d ago	Fresh
Inis Oirr	77d ago	Fresh
Surrey Quest	84d ago	Fresh
Gold Cup Bailly	371d ago	Long break

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Mr Incredible	Hold Up
Broken Halo	Hold Up

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 26 runners classified.