William Hill Dahlia Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares)

Newmarket

14:25

Date 2024-05-05

Distance 1m1f

Class Class 1

Going Good

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £70,888

Winning Time 1m 50.23s (slow by 1.33s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Stay Alert (GB) David Egan · Hughie Morrison	5/1	Won
2nd	Running Lion (GB) Oisin Murphy · John & Thady Gosden	6/4F	3.5
3rd	Caernarfon (GB) David Probert · Jack Channon	7/1	5.5
4th	Heartache Tonight (FR) Jamie Spencer · David Menuisier	20/1	3
5th	Astral Beau (GB) Shane Kelly · Pam Sly	15/2	.5
6th	Silver Lady (GB) William Buick · Charlie Appleby	16/5	22

Runners (7)

EW Terms: 2 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6 (2)	Running Lion Grey J:Oisin Murphy T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Oisin Murphy T:John & Thady Gosden	128	—	10238-	105	121	108	197d	—	—	0	29.2	0.44/1	7/4 36%
Still to prove fully that she can compete at this level but the potential is there
1 (6)	Silver Lady Bay J:William Buick T:Charlie Appleby	J:William Buick T:Charlie Appleby	131	h	1360-1	105	115	107	107d	—	—	+10	29.5	0.75/1	3/1 25%
Classy filly but best form has been at 1m and she's notoriously headstrong
7 (4)	Stay Alert Bay J:David Egan T:Hughie Morrison	J:David Egan T:Hughie Morrison	128	t	52690-	110	125	112	197d	—	—	+7	20.1	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Brings respectable Group 1 form back into a Group 2; major claims at the weights
3 (3)	Caernarfon Bay J:David Probert T:Jack Channon	J:David Probert T:Jack Channon	128	—	43656-	109	123	95	263d	—	—	+6	19.3	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Held her own in three Group 1s last season and she's quick enough for this drop in trip
2 (5)	Astral Beau Bay J:Shane Kelly T:Pam Sly	J:Shane Kelly T:Pam Sly	128	—	3348-2	104	117	100	43d	—	—	+12	20.9	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Third last year and showed even better form afterwards; should come on for reappearance
4 (1)	Heartache Tonight Bay J:Jamie Spencer T:David Menuisier	J:Jamie Spencer T:David Menuisier	128	—	/3466-	105	118	84	260d	—	—	+12	15.6	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Close up a 1m2f French Group 1 last season; there could well be better to come as a 4yo
NR (7)	Novus Bay J:TBC T:Gary & Josh Moore	J: T:Gary & Josh Moore	128	p	141-72	107	120	58	1d	—	—	—	14.3	—	—
Group 3 winner; ran well in a Listed race yesterday but this demands plenty more

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Running Lion	7/4	7/4	7/4
Silver Lady	3/1	3/1	3/1
Stay Alert	5/1	5/1	5/1
Caernarfon	5/1	5/1	5/1
Astral Beau	8/1	8/1	8/1
Heartache Tonight	20/1	20/1	20/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Silver Lady

29.5

OR: 13.8 Form: 10 Odds: 5.7

3/1

2nd

Running Lion

29.2

OR: 13.8 Form: 6.6 Odds: 8.9

7/4

3rd

Astral Beau

20.9

OR: 13.5 Form: 5 Odds: 2.4

8/1

Stay Alert

20.1

OR: 15 Form: 1.5 Odds: 3.6

5/1

Caernarfon

19.3

OR: 14.8 Form: 0.9 Odds: 3.6

5/1

Heartache Tonight

15.6

OR: 13.8 Form: 0.9 Odds: 1

20/1

Novus

14.3

OR: 14.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Stay Alert	110	125	112
Caernarfon	109	123	95
Novus	107	120	58
Running Lion	105	121	108
Silver Lady	105	115	107
Heartache Tonight	105	118	84
Astral Beau	104	117	100

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Novus	1d ago	Quick return
Astral Beau	43d ago	Fit
Silver Lady	107d ago	Long break
Running Lion	197d ago	Long break
Stay Alert	197d ago	Long break
Heartache Tonight	260d ago	Long break
Caernarfon	263d ago	Long break