Dont Miss Fiver Friday Raceday 19th July 'Confined' Handicap (For horses Which Have Not Won In 2024)

Nottingham

18:50

Date 2024-06-19

Distance 5f8y

Class Class 5

Going Good To Soft

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £4,187

Winning Time 59.45s (slow by 1.85s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Faustus (GB) Jack Mitchell · Robert Cowell	12/1	Won
2nd	Four Adaay (GB) Lewis Edmunds · Rod Millman	8/1	.75
3rd	Miss Brazen (GB) Harry Russell · Michael & David Easterby	14/1	.75
4th	Abolish (GB) Jason Watson · Tony Carroll	14/1	1
5th	Strong Johnson (IRE) Ryan Sexton · Paul Midgley	4/1	0.3
6th	Dandy Dinmont (IRE) Faye McManoman · Nigel Tinkler	13/2	0.3
7th	Little Muddy (GB) Dale Swift · Seb Spencer	9/2	2
8th	Angle Land (GB) Marco Ghiani · Robert Cowell	100/30F	0.1
9th	Glendown (IRE) Duran Fentiman · Tim Easterby	25/1	1.25
10th	Beauld As Brass (GB) Sean D Bowen · Adam West	16/1	3

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
7 (6)	Angle Land Bay J:Marco Ghiani T:Robert Cowell	J:Marco Ghiani T:Robert Cowell	130	v	3-8633	70	90	76	8d	—	—	-7	12.8	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Good placed efforts the last twice; return to a bare 5f in her favour; respected
6 (3)	Little Muddy Bay J:Dale Swift T:Seb Spencer	J:Dale Swift T:Seb Spencer	130	—	07-347	70	91	76	25d	—	—	-7	9.9	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Good chance on last year's best and she's run well this year too; 6f perhaps best though
1 (1)	Strong Johnson Bay J:Ryan Sexton T:Paul Midgley	J:Ryan Sexton T:Paul Midgley	137	—	2-6304	77	92	63	14d	—	—	-2	15.3	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Three wins last year; looked on the way back at Ripon latest; yard won this in 2022 & 2023
3 (8)	Dandy Dinmont Bay J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	133	—	538-24	73	89	76	9d	—	—	-4	9.8	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Two solid runs in defeat this season; should go well again provided the ground isn't soft
10 (5)	Four Adaay Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Rod Millman	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Rod Millman	123	—	69-987	63	87	59	12d	—	—	-4	5.9	2.13/1	17/2 11%
C&D winner; 9lb lower than for latest success; caught wide the last twice; not discounted
5 (2)	Faustus Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Robert Cowell	J:Jack Mitchell T:Robert Cowell	132	p	03-757	72	89	56	34d	—	—	0	7.6	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Well treated on last year's best and handles most ground; yet to fire in 2024 though
9 (10)	Beauld As Brass Bay J:Sean D Bowen(5) T:Adam West	J:Sean D Bowen(5) T:Adam West	123	h	183-43	63	89	73	22d	—	—	-2	5.4	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Usually seen at a lower level but his two runs this year have both been creditable
2 (4)	Miss Brazen Bay J:Harry Russell T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Harry Russell T:Michael & David Easterby	134	—	930-50	74	91	72	32d	—	—	+1	7.7	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Well handicapped and shaped well on her return; poor run at Thirsk last time though
8 (9)	Abolish Bay J:Jason Watson T:Tony Carroll	J:Jason Watson T:Tony Carroll	125	p	-94426	65	89	59	44d	—	—	+3	8.9	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Tricky to win with but went desperately close at Kempton in March (6f); others are safer
4 (7)	Glendown Bay J:Duran Fentiman T:Tim Easterby	J:Duran Fentiman T:Tim Easterby	132	p	1410-0	72	88	80	14d	—	—	+3	6.4	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Three 6f wins last year; sharper for last week's 6f return; better expected today

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Angle Land	7/2	10/3	7/2
Little Muddy	9/2	4/1	4/1
Strong Johnson	4/1	4/1	4/1
Dandy Dinmont	11/2	5/1	11/2
Four Adaay	8/1	17/2	17/2
Faustus	12/1	11/1	12/1
Beauld As Brass	14/1	14/1	14/1
Miss Brazen	16/1	16/1	16/1
Abolish	20/1	18/1	20/1
Glendown	28/1	28/1	28/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Strong Johnson

15.3

OR: 6.8 Form: 3.5 Odds: 5

4/1

2nd

Angle Land

12.8

OR: 5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 5.7

7/2

3rd

Little Muddy

9.9

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 4.9

9/2

Dandy Dinmont

9.8

OR: 5.8 Form: 0 Odds: 4

11/2

Abolish

8.9

OR: 3.8 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1.6

20/1

Miss Brazen

7.7

OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

16/1

Faustus

7.6

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

12/1

Glendown

6.4

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

28/1

Four Adaay

5.9

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

17/2

Beauld As Brass

5.4

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

14/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Strong Johnson	77	92	63
Miss Brazen	74	91	72
Dandy Dinmont	73	89	76
Faustus	72	89	56
Glendown	72	88	80
Angle Land	70	90	76
Little Muddy	70	91	76
Abolish	65	89	59
Four Adaay	63	87	59
Beauld As Brass	63	89	73

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Angle Land	8d ago	Quick return
Dandy Dinmont	9d ago	Quick return
Four Adaay	12d ago	Quick return
Strong Johnson	14d ago	Fit
Glendown	14d ago	Fit
Beauld As Brass	22d ago	Fit
Little Muddy	25d ago	Fit
Miss Brazen	32d ago	Fit
Faustus	34d ago	Fit
Abolish	44d ago	Fit

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Nottingham over 5f8y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Based on 5 draws with historical results at this course and distance.