Fergie & Myra Happel Ayr Gold Cup Trial Handicap

Ayr

15:28

Date 2024-07-15

Distance 6f

Class Class 3

Going Good

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £15,462

Winning Time 1m 10.41s (slow by 1.41s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Alfa Kellenic (GB) Tom Eaves · Craig Lidster	4/1	Won
2nd	Mythical Phoenix (IRE) Lewis Edmunds · Julie Camacho	100/30F	0.1
3rd	Aberama Gold (GB) David Nolan · David O'Meara	6/1	.75
4th	The Caltonian (GB) Jonny Peate · Linda Perratt	15/2	0.3
5th	Twilight Romance (GB) Jason Hart · John & Sean Quinn	10/1	.5
6th	Catherine Chroi (IRE) Andrew Mullen · Iain Jardine	22/1	1
7th	Batal Zabeel (IRE) Shane Gray · Kevin Ryan	17/2	.5
8th	Dare To Hope (IRE) Oisin Orr · Richard Fahey	13/2	.75
9th	Jump The Gun (IRE) Mohammed Tabti · Iain Jardine	33/1	3
10th	Tinto (GB) Connor Beasley · Michael Dods	11/1	2.25
11th	Call Me Ginger (GB) Paul Mulrennan · Jim Goldie	50/1	5

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (3)	Mythical Phoenix Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Julie Camacho	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Julie Camacho	137	p	4-2222	85	97	80	16d	—	—	-5	14.5	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Runner-up all four starts for new yard, including in cheekpieces last time; should go well
7 (7)	Alfa Kellenic Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Craig Lidster	J:Tom Eaves T:Craig Lidster	131	—	3-4111	85	99	76	31d	—	—	-5	17.5	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Two emphatic handicap wins last month; in deeper today but doubt she's reached her ceiling
2 (8)	Aberama Gold Bay J:David Nolan T:David O'Meara	J:David Nolan T:David O'Meara	142	v	636974	90	98	72	25d	—	—	0	15	1.38/1	11/2 15%
On a good mark and ran well in this race last year; revival unlikely to be too far away
10 (5)	Batal Zabeel Bay J:Shane Gray T:Kevin Ryan	J:Shane Gray T:Kevin Ryan	128	p	512-71	82	96	89	26d	—	—	+1	10.9	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Took form to new level when winning at Ripon last month (6f, soft); up 3lb in better race
9 (1)	The Caltonian Bay J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Linda Perratt	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Linda Perratt	129	b	82B622	77	98	85	7d	—	—	+10	18.8	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Lower rating on turf and he's finished 2nd over C&D the last twice; should go well again
1 (10)	Dare To Hope Bay J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	142	—	3-1023	90	95	82	16d	—	—	+4	15.2	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Improving as a 4yo, keeping on well at Chester last month; another career best needed
5 (2)	Twilight Romance Bay J:Jason Hart T:John & Sean Quinn	J:Jason Hart T:John & Sean Quinn	132	—	20-420	86	93	54	30d	—	—	+3	11.5	2.50/1	10/1 9%
One good run and two lesser efforts this year; unexposed & return to better ground a plus
11 (6)	Catherine Chroi Bay J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	127	b	111153	75	96	88	13d	—	—	+15	20.9	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Had a fine year, winning six times since March; this looks too competitive though
3 (11)	Tinto Bay J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	141	p	2-0717	89	96	66	12d	—	—	+10	14.5	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Runner-up in the Silver Cup here last year; cheekpieces back for the first time since
8 (9)	Jump The Gun Bay J:Mohammed Tabti(5) T:Iain Jardine	J:Mohammed Tabti(5) T:Iain Jardine	130	p	4-8776	78	97	83	33d	—	—	+5	7.6	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Inconsistent but capable on his day and well treated; others safer all the same
6 (4)	Call Me Ginger Chestnut J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	132	—	080-69	80	98	14	12d	—	—	+5	8.3	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Two heavy defeats this year; Paul Mulrennan back on today and he's on a dangerous mark

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Mythical Phoenix	-	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2
Alfa Kellenic	-	3/1	7/2	3/1	11/4
Aberama Gold	-	11/2	11/2	5/1	5/1
Batal Zabeel	-	8/1	15/2	15/2	15/2
The Caltonian	-	17/2	8/1	8/1	8/1
Dare To Hope	-	15/2	15/2	7/1	15/2
Twilight Romance	-	10/1	17/2	10/1	9/1
Catherine Chroi	-	14/1	18/1	14/1	14/1
Tinto	-	22/1	20/1	20/1	20/1
Jump The Gun	-	40/1	33/1	33/1	33/1
Call Me Ginger	-	33/1	28/1	25/1	28/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Catherine Chroi

20.9

OR: 6.3 Form: 13 Odds: 1.6

18/1

2nd

The Caltonian

18.8

OR: 6.8 Form: 9.5 Odds: 2.5

17/2

3rd

Alfa Kellenic

17.5

OR: 8.8 Form: 2.1 Odds: 6.7

7/2

Dare To Hope

15.2

OR: 10 Form: 2.1 Odds: 3.1

15/2

Aberama Gold

OR: 10 Form: 0.6 Odds: 4.4

11/2

Mythical Phoenix

14.5

OR: 8.8 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

7/2

Tinto

14.5

OR: 9.8 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1.2

22/1

Twilight Romance

11.5

OR: 9 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

10/1

Batal Zabeel

10.9

OR: 8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

8/1

Call Me Ginger

8.3

OR: 7.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

33/1

Jump The Gun

7.6

OR: 7 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

40/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Aberama Gold	90	98	72
Dare To Hope	90	95	82
Tinto	89	96	66
Twilight Romance	86	93	54
Mythical Phoenix	85	97	80
Alfa Kellenic	85	99	76
Batal Zabeel	82	96	89
Call Me Ginger	80	98	14
Jump The Gun	78	97	83
The Caltonian	77	98	85
Catherine Chroi	75	96	88

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
The Caltonian	7d ago	Quick return
Tinto	12d ago	Quick return
Call Me Ginger	12d ago	Quick return
Catherine Chroi	13d ago	Quick return
Mythical Phoenix	16d ago	Fit
Dare To Hope	16d ago	Fit
Aberama Gold	25d ago	Fit
Batal Zabeel	26d ago	Fit
Twilight Romance	30d ago	Fit
Alfa Kellenic	31d ago	Fit
Jump The Gun	33d ago	Fit

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Tinto	Mid-Pack
Alfa Kellenic	Hold Up

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 11 runners classified.