Highclere Thoroughbred Racing St Hugh's Stakes (Listed Race) (IRE Incentive Race)

Newbury

15:45

Date 2024-08-16

Distance 5f34y

Class Class 1

Going Good

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 2yo

Prize £25,520

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (12)	Adrestia Bay J:Callum Shepherd T:Simon & Ed Crisford	J:Callum Shepherd T:Simon & Ed Crisford	128	—	3011	91	106	95	16d	—	—	+9	36.6	0.50/1	2/1 33%
One of the stronger contenders on form and she appears to be improving
2 (2)	Amestris Bay J:Hector Crouch T:Michael Bell	J:Hector Crouch T:Michael Bell	128	t	2197	91	100	90	16d	—	—	+8	20.4	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Has not had everything go her way in two Group-race assignments; remains of major interest
12 (3)	River Seine Bay J:Daniel Tudhope T:K R Burke	J:Daniel Tudhope T:K R Burke	128	—	2321	84	102	94	19d	—	—	+15	29	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Front-runner who got off the mark last time and getting better by the looks
7 (4)	Kaadi Bay J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	128	—	217324	94	100	93	27d	—	—	+11	20.9	2.00/1	8/1 11%
She doesn't look strikingly progressive but has a good chance on the figures
9 (11)	Lady Of Andros Bay J:Ryan Moore T:A Fabre	J:Ryan Moore T:A Fabre	128	—	15	-	99	87	13d	—	—	0	9.9	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Debut win was over 6f on soft; outpaced over 5f on good latest but still ran well
5 (8)	Englemere Bay J:Billy Loughnane T:George Boughey	J:Billy Loughnane T:George Boughey	128	—	21102	87	100	94	16d	—	—	+16	25.9	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Looks held by Adrestia, even with a 4lb pull on their latest Sandown encounter
4 (1)	Cressida Wildes Bay J:Kieran Shoemark T:Charlie Fellowes	J:Kieran Shoemark T:Charlie Fellowes	128	—	43	-	92	84	28d	—	—	-1	4.6	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Talented but a repeat of latest third here unlikely to win her anything at this level
14 (6)	Violet Love Grey J:David Egan T:George Boughey	J:David Egan T:George Boughey	128	—	211218	90	98	92	11d	—	—	+20	26.1	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Has only won at the minor tracks and she lacks Pattern-race experience
13 (13)	Storm Call Bay J:Richard Kingscote T:K R Burke	J:Richard Kingscote T:K R Burke	128	—	21022	87	96	93	16d	—	—	+19	22.8	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Talented filly going the right way but needs a career best by some margin here
8 (7)	Kuwaitya Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	128	p	213564	81	93	87	16d	—	—	+9	11.2	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Useful filly but now a shade exposed and she's held by some of today's rivals
6 (10)	I Got Soul Grey J:David Probert T:Kevin Ryan	J:David Probert T:Kevin Ryan	128	—	6517	78	87	72	28d	—	—	+13	14.4	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Fair run in a Listed race last time but no more than that; big ask at the weights
3 (9)	Cindy Lou Who Bay J:Luke Morris T:Gay Kelleway	J:Luke Morris T:Gay Kelleway	128	—	3	-	84	60	21d	—	—	+2	3.3	25.00/1	100/1 1%
Ran really well for a newcomer to be beaten under a length at Sandown
11 (5)	Music History Bay J:Kevin Stott T:Edward Bethell	J:Kevin Stott T:Edward Bethell	128	—	58816	74	88	79	14d	—	—	+12	13.3	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Even on her piece of winning form she has a lot to find in this company
NR (14)	Magic Mild Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:Clive Cox	J:NON-RUNNER T:Clive Cox	128	—	3011	93	105	-	13d	—	—	—	28.7	—	—
Had one blip at York but hard to fault otherwise; non-runner

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Adrestia	2/1	2/1	15/8	2/1	2/1
Amestris	6/1	11/2	11/2	11/2	6/1
River Seine	6/1	11/2	6/1	11/2	6/1
Kaadi	8/1	7/1	7/1	15/2	15/2
Lady Of Andros	8/1	8/1	7/1	13/2	15/2
Englemere	9/1	8/1	8/1	9/1	17/2
Cressida Wildes	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1
Violet Love	14/1	14/1	14/1	16/1	14/1
Storm Call	25/1	22/1	25/1	22/1	25/1
Kuwaitya	40/1	40/1	40/1	33/1	40/1
I Got Soul	66/1	80/1	66/1	66/1	80/1
Cindy Lou Who	100/1	100/1	66/1	80/1	100/1
Music History	150/1	100/1	66/1	80/1	100/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Adrestia

36.6

OR: 10.3 Form: 17.9 Odds: 8.4

2/1

2nd

River Seine

OR: 8.5 Form: 16.5 Odds: 4

6/1

3rd

Magic Mild

28.7

OR: 10.8 Form: 17.9 Odds: 0

—

Violet Love

26.1

OR: 10 Form: 14.5 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Englemere

25.9

OR: 9.3 Form: 14 Odds: 2.7

9/1

Storm Call

22.8

OR: 9.3 Form: 12.5 Odds: 1.1

25/1

Kaadi

20.9

OR: 11 Form: 7 Odds: 2.9

8/1

Amestris

20.4

OR: 10.3 Form: 6.5 Odds: 3.6

6/1

I Got Soul

14.4

OR: 7 Form: 7 Odds: 0.4

80/1

Music History

13.3

OR: 6 Form: 7 Odds: 0.3

150/1

Kuwaitya

11.2

OR: 7.8 Form: 2.9 Odds: 0.6

40/1

Lady Of Andros

9.9

OR: 0 Form: 7 Odds: 2.9

8/1

Cressida Wildes

4.6

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 1.6

14/1

Cindy Lou Who

3.3

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 0.3

100/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Kaadi	94	100	93
Magic Mild	93	105	—
Adrestia	91	106	95
Amestris	91	100	90
Violet Love	90	98	92
Englemere	87	100	94
Storm Call	87	96	93
River Seine	84	102	94
Kuwaitya	81	93	87
I Got Soul	78	87	72
Music History	74	88	79
Lady Of Andros	—	99	87
Cressida Wildes	—	92	84
Cindy Lou Who	—	84	60

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Violet Love	11d ago	Quick return
Lady Of Andros	13d ago	Quick return
Magic Mild	13d ago	Quick return
Music History	14d ago	Fit
Adrestia	16d ago	Fit
Amestris	16d ago	Fit
Englemere	16d ago	Fit
Storm Call	16d ago	Fit
Kuwaitya	16d ago	Fit
River Seine	19d ago	Fit
Cindy Lou Who	21d ago	Fit
Kaadi	27d ago	Fit
Cressida Wildes	28d ago	Fit
I Got Soul	28d ago	Fit

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
River Seine	Front Runner
Kaadi	Prominent
Violet Love	Prominent

Inferred from horse comments. 3 of 14 runners classified.