Ian Carnaby Handicap – Brighton

Brighton

14:50

Ian Carnaby Handicap

Date 2024-09-02

Distance 6f210y

Class Class 5

Going Good To Firm

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £4,606

Winning Time 1m 23.42s (slow by 4.72s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Revolutionise (IRE) Marco Ghiani · Stuart Williams	4/1	Won
2nd	Dion Baker (IRE) Darragh Keenan · Michael Wigham	7/2J	0.3
3rd	Macs Dilemma (IRE) Hollie Doyle · John O'Shea	7/2J	1.75
4th	Poetic Force (IRE) Molly Gunn · Tony Carroll	9/1	1.25
5th	Vinaka (IRE) Callum Hutchinson · Dominic Ffrench Davis	7/1	0.2
6th	Sir Oliver (IRE) Silvestre De Sousa · Chris Dwyer	9/2	1.25
7th	Amathus (IRE) David Probert · Patrick Chamings	12/1	.5

Runners (8)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (6)	Macs Dilemma Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:John O'Shea	J:Hollie Doyle T:John O'Shea	137	b	546526	70	84	65	7d	—	—	-4	13.7	1.00/1	4/1 20%
On dangerous mark and he went close over C&D on penultimate run; in the mix back in trip
1 (4)	Dion Baker Bay J:Darragh Keenan T:Michael Wigham	J:Darragh Keenan T:Michael Wigham	139	b	730141	72	81	59	8d	—	—	+8	26.3	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Won by 4l at Yarmouth last Sunday and he looks well treated under penalty; major player
5 (1)	Revolutionise Grey J:Marco Ghiani T:Stuart Williams	J:Marco Ghiani T:Stuart Williams	132	—	266637	65	85	66	13d	—	—	-7	11.1	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Seven-time AW winner but he was laboured at Kempton last time; risks attached
3 (5)	Sir Oliver Bay J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Chris Dwyer	J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Chris Dwyer	134	p	033598	67	84	70	37d	—	—	-10	12.4	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Just one win since August 2022 and he's been well held in last two runs
6 (8)	Vinaka Bay J:Callum Hutchinson(3) T:Dominic Ffrench Davis	J:Callum Hutchinson(3) T:Dominic Ffrench Davis	131	p	4-8593	64	84	57	13d	—	—	-4	6.6	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Back to form with third over C&D latest and has claims if she can build on that
8 (7)	Poetic Force Chestnut J:Molly Gunn(7) T:Tony Carroll	J:Molly Gunn(7) T:Tony Carroll	129	—	425504	62	84	66	25d	—	—	-3	6.7	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Veteran who is 0-10 this year and this looks tough on this drop back to 7f; down the list
7 (3)	Amathus Bay J:David Probert T:Patrick Chamings	J:David Probert T:Patrick Chamings	130	p	3-8723	63	80	68	84d	—	—	+1	7.1	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Placed at Lingfield last twice but he was beaten 5l in a Class 6 last time; needs more
NR (2)	Marsh Benham Chestnut J:Aidan Keeley(3) T:George Baker	J:Aidan Keeley(3) T:George Baker	132	tp	024333	65	80	67	1d	—	—	—	11.4	—	—
Dual course winner; in form but just a respectable 3rd over 1m on Sunday

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Macs Dilemma	4/1	4/1	4/1
Dion Baker	7/2	7/2	7/2
Revolutionise	4/1	4/1	4/1
Sir Oliver	4/1	7/2	4/1
Vinaka	7/1	7/1	7/1
Poetic Force	17/2	17/2	17/2
Amathus	14/1	14/1	14/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Dion Baker

26.3

OR: 5.5 Form: 15.6 Odds: 5.2

7/2

2nd

Macs Dilemma

13.7

OR: 5 Form: 3.5 Odds: 5.2

4/1

3rd

Sir Oliver

12.4

OR: 4.3 Form: 1.5 Odds: 6.7

4/1

Marsh Benham

11.4

OR: 3.8 Form: 7.6 Odds: 0

—

Revolutionise

11.1

OR: 3.8 Form: 2.1 Odds: 5.2

4/1

Amathus

7.1

OR: 3.3 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Poetic Force

6.7

OR: 3 Form: 1 Odds: 2.7

17/2

Vinaka

6.6

OR: 3.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

7/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Dion Baker	72	81	59
Macs Dilemma	70	84	65
Sir Oliver	67	84	70
Revolutionise	65	85	66
Marsh Benham	65	80	67
Vinaka	64	84	57
Amathus	63	80	68
Poetic Force	62	84	66

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Marsh Benham	1d ago	Quick return
Macs Dilemma	7d ago	Quick return
Dion Baker	8d ago	Quick return
Revolutionise	13d ago	Quick return
Vinaka	13d ago	Quick return
Poetic Force	25d ago	Fit
Sir Oliver	37d ago	Fit
Amathus	84d ago	Fresh