NewKey Homes Ltd. Nursery Handicap – Bellewstown

Bellewstown

13:35

NewKey Homes Ltd. Nursery Handicap

Date 2024-10-03

Distance 7f195y

Class

Going Yielding

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 2yo

Prize €6,490

Winning Time 1m 41.26s (slow by 4.36s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Baltray Lady (IRE) Dylan Browne McMonagle · Joseph Patrick O'Brien	9/2	Won
2nd	Now (IRE) Gavin Ryan · Donnacha Aidan O'Brien	12/1	1
3rd	Great Mover (IRE) W J Lee · W McCreery	3/1F	2.5
4th	Coulstys Way (IRE) Rory Cleary · Patrick Magee	20/1	.5
5th	Sunriseontheboyne (IRE) Terry Casey · Michael Mulvany	9/1	2
6th	Invincibletomorrow (IRE) Gary Carroll · Gavin Cromwell	5/1	.5
7th	Merchants Arch (IRE) Colin Keane · Ross O'Sullivan	33/1	.75
8th	Your Call (IRE) Jamie Powell · Noel Meade	12/1	1
9th	Buck Barrow (GB) Ronan Whelan · Mark Fahey	7/2	0.3
10th	Hes Bullet Proof (IRE) Wesley Joyce · Michael Mulvany	100/1	7
11th	Let It Linger (IRE) Shane Foley · Mrs John Harrington	50/1	0.3
12th	Escorpio (IRE) Nathan Crosse · Adrian McGuinness	66/1	0.3

Runners (15)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (6)	Great Mover Bay J:W J Lee T:W McCreery	J:W J Lee T:W McCreery	137	—	59492	69	75	48	14d	—	0W/0P 1 run	-5	15.9	0.75/1	3/1 25%
Much improved when second over 1m at Naas; only 1lb higher and Billy Lee rides
9 (12)	Buck Barrow Bay J:Ronan Whelan T:Mark Fahey	J:Ronan Whelan T:Mark Fahey	125	—	70958	57	72	58	14d	—	—	-12	7.5	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Ran on late after being slowly into stride when 8th at Naas behind some of these last time
1 (15)	Invincibletomorrow Bay J:Gary Carroll T:Gavin Cromwell	J:Gary Carroll T:Gavin Cromwell	140	b	05495	72	71	65	10d	—	—	-7	10.5	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Never-nearer fifth at Listowel over 1m; first-time blinkers might help
4 (2)	Baltray Lady Bay J:Dylan Browne McMonagle T:Joseph Patrick O'Brien	J:Dylan Browne McMonagle T:Joseph Patrick O'Brien	135	b	6246	67	72	52	23d	—	—	-6	12	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Decent run when sixth of 16 behind a pair of Group 1-entered runners at Galway; respected
6 (13)	Sunriseontheboyne Bay J:Terry Casey(10) T:Michael Mulvany	J:Terry Casey(10) T:Michael Mulvany	133	—	052175	65	71	57	2d	—	—	+3	13.1	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Others might be better treated; probably wouldn't want the ground to dry out
7 (8)	Now Bay J:Gavin Ryan T:Donnacha Aidan O'Brien	J:Gavin Ryan T:Donnacha Aidan O'Brien	131	b	6300	63	77	33	14d	—	—	-1	7.1	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Had excuses behind some of these at Naas; each-way possibilities from 3lb lower; blinkers
10 (10)	Your Call Bay J:Jamie Powell(3) T:Noel Meade	J:Jamie Powell(3) T:Noel Meade	123	p	00064	55	73	46	14d	—	—	-4	3.4	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Better effort when fourth over 1m at Naas latest; closely matched with Great Mover
11 (5)	Coulstys Way Bay J:Rory Cleary T:Patrick Magee	J:Rory Cleary T:Patrick Magee	122	—	045	54	65	47	76d	—	—	-2	2.2	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Slowly away at Down Royal when last seen; will need to break better to get involved
5 (11)	Merchants Arch Chestnut J:Colin Keane T:Ross O'Sullivan	J:Colin Keane T:Ross O'Sullivan	135	—	897	67	72	43	14d	—	—	+1	5.3	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Step up in trip needs to bring about improvement on handicap debut but he's in good hands
8 (14)	Let It Linger Bay J:Shane Foley T:Mrs John Harrington	J:Shane Foley T:Mrs John Harrington	130	b	0800	62	72	18	14d	—	—	+1	3.7	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Best effort when eighth in a Tipperary maiden; difficult to warm to
14 (4)	Escorpio Bay J:Nathan Crosse T:Adrian McGuinness	J:Nathan Crosse T:Adrian McGuinness	119	v	0090	51	64	46	14d	—	—	-1	0.8	25.00/1	100/1 1%
Beaten a long way in four maidens to date but yard can ready one; watch the market
15 (1)	Hes Bullet Proof Bay J:Wesley Joyce(5) T:Michael Mulvany	J:Wesley Joyce(5) T:Michael Mulvany	119	—	090	51	54	48	14d	—	—	-1	0.7	25.00/1	100/1 1%
Impossible to recommend on all known form but the market could be revealing
NR (7)	Shocker Chestnut J:Wayne Lordan T:E J O'Neill	J:Wayne Lordan T:E J O'Neill	140	p	720455	72	72	30	14d	—	—	—	6.5	—	—
Big run when close 4th over C&D next time but followed that up with a pair of poor efforts
NR (9)	Senior Montecristo Bay J:Leigh Roche T:Kevin Thomas Coleman	J:Leigh Roche T:Kevin Thomas Coleman	122	—	7469	54	76	69	14d	—	—	—	1	—	—
Has shown little in 4 starts, including when down the field behind some of these at Naas
NR (3)	Vovatia Bay J:Siobhan Rutledge(3) T:Ms Sheila Lavery	J:Siobhan Rutledge(3) T:Ms Sheila Lavery	122	—	000	54	63	44	59d	—	—	—	1	—	—
Well beaten in 3 starts in 6f maidens to date but faced stiff opposition; hard to fancy

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Great Mover	3/1	3/1	3/1
Buck Barrow	4/1	7/2	10/3
Invincibletomorrow	9/2	4/1	4/1
Baltray Lady	9/2	4/1	4/1
Sunriseontheboyne	9/1	9/1	8/1
Now	10/1	9/1	9/1
Your Call	12/1	12/1	11/1
Coulstys Way	22/1	22/1	20/1
Merchants Arch	25/1	25/1	20/1
Let It Linger	66/1	33/1	40/1
Escorpio	100/1	66/1	66/1
Hes Bullet Proof	100/1	66/1	80/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Great Mover

15.9

OR: 4.8 Form: 5 Odds: 6.2

3/1

2nd

Sunriseontheboyne

13.1

OR: 3.8 Form: 6.5 Odds: 2.9

9/1

3rd

Baltray Lady

OR: 4.3 Form: 2.5 Odds: 5.2

9/2

Invincibletomorrow

10.5

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 5

9/2

Buck Barrow

7.5

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

4/1

Now

7.1

OR: 3.3 Form: 1.5 Odds: 2.4

10/1

Shocker

6.5

OR: 5.5 Form: 1 Odds: 0

—

Merchants Arch

5.3

OR: 4.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

25/1

Let It Linger

3.7

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

66/1

Your Call

3.4

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

12/1

Coulstys Way

2.2

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

22/1

Senior Montecristo

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Vovatia

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Escorpio

0.8

OR: 0.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

100/1

Hes Bullet Proof

0.7

OR: 0.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

100/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Invincibletomorrow	72	71	65
Shocker	72	72	30
Great Mover	69	75	48
Baltray Lady	67	72	52
Merchants Arch	67	72	43
Sunriseontheboyne	65	71	57
Now	63	77	33
Let It Linger	62	72	18
Buck Barrow	57	72	58
Your Call	55	73	46
Coulstys Way	54	65	47
Senior Montecristo	54	76	69
Vovatia	54	63	44
Escorpio	51	64	46
Hes Bullet Proof	51	54	48

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Sunriseontheboyne	2d ago	Quick return
Invincibletomorrow	10d ago	Quick return
Great Mover	14d ago	Fit
Buck Barrow	14d ago	Fit
Now	14d ago	Fit
Your Call	14d ago	Fit
Merchants Arch	14d ago	Fit
Let It Linger	14d ago	Fit
Escorpio	14d ago	Fit
Hes Bullet Proof	14d ago	Fit
Shocker	14d ago	Fit
Senior Montecristo	14d ago	Fit
Baltray Lady	23d ago	Fit
Vovatia	59d ago	Fresh
Coulstys Way	76d ago	Fresh

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Great Mover	Prominent
Coulstys Way	Hold Up

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 15 runners classified.

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Bellewstown over 7f195y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.