Saint Francis Hospice Nursery Handicap – Chelmsford (AW)

Chelmsford (AW)

18:00

Saint Francis Hospice Nursery Handicap

Date 2024-10-03

Distance 7f

Class Class 5

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £5,051

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
8 (5)	Matharu Bay J:Finley Marsh T:Richard Hughes	J:Finley Marsh T:Richard Hughes	133	b	865212	68	75	72	22d	—	—	-4	29.6	0.41/1	13/8 38%
Improver since handicapping in blinkers; stone higher than for his win but may be up to it
7 (3)	Brandywine Falls Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Roger Varian	J:Jack Mitchell T:Roger Varian	133	—	65744	68	75	52	8d	—	—	-12	11.8	0.75/1	3/1 25%
Will be popular again, with tonight's easy 7f likely to be within range; shortlisted
11 (6)	Telford Bay J:Sean D Bowen(3) T:Hughie Morrison	J:Sean D Bowen(3) T:Hughie Morrison	125	—	0901	60	81	73	33d	—	—	-1	18.2	0.88/1	7/2 22%
This stronger upped 6lb for C&D win but she's well related and open to further improvement
5 (8)	Karl Carlston Chestnut J:David Egan T:Darryll Holland	J:David Egan T:Darryll Holland	134	—	3044	69	71	48	12d	—	—	-4	9.3	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Again showed a marked tendency to hang left latest (saddle slipped), which is a worry
2 (2)	The Feminine Urge Grey J:Callum Shepherd T:George Scott	J:Callum Shepherd T:George Scott	135	—	07618	70	76	-	22d	—	—	+7	13.7	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Unsuited by soft ground last time and shapes as though this extra furlong will be fine
3 (11)	Amor Cordis Bay J:Richard Kingscote T:Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole	J:Richard Kingscote T:Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole	135	—	035	70	71	-	50d	—	—	+4	8.3	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Likely there's improvement in him but he'll need it off this mark from the outside stall
9 (7)	Rotation Bay J:Mia Nicholls(5) T:Eve Johnson Houghton	J:Mia Nicholls(5) T:Eve Johnson Houghton	132	—	0180	67	74	39	40d	—	—	+7	10	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Achieved little aside from his 20-1 win in a turf seller and will need to settle better
10 (10)	Havana Dance Chestnut J:Rob Hornby T:Jonathan Portman	J:Rob Hornby T:Jonathan Portman	132	—	43965	67	76	-	48d	—	—	+3	6	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Hasn't progressed; doesn't make obvious appeal on her AW debut from a wide stall
4 (1)	Kaiya Bay J:Alec Voikhansky(3) T:Richard Hannon	J:Alec Voikhansky(3) T:Richard Hannon	134	—	606	69	72	-	35d	—	—	+3	5.2	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Room for improvement at the stalls; gives impression there's more to come now handicapping
NR (9)	Dapper Guest Bay J:Harry Davies T:George Margarson	J:Harry Davies T:George Margarson	135	—	0546	70	76	-	16d	—	—	—	5	—	—
Again wasn't without hope on his nursery debut; far from impossible he pops up
NR (4)	Lilly's Bet Chestnut J:TBC T:William Knight	J: T:William Knight	134	—	553524	69	72	52	22d	—	—	—	9.2	—	—
There's no obvious reason she won't go well again but she's vulnerable to improvers

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Matharu	13/8	13/8	13/8
Brandywine Falls	11/4	5/2	3/1
Telford	7/2	10/3	7/2
Karl Carlston	11/2	13/2	11/2
The Feminine Urge	16/1	18/1	18/1
Amor Cordis	22/1	22/1	22/1
Rotation	33/1	33/1	33/1
Havana Dance	40/1	50/1	40/1
Kaiya	80/1	66/1	80/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Matharu

29.6

OR: 4.5 Form: 14.5 Odds: 10.6

13/8

2nd

Telford

18.2

OR: 2.5 Form: 10 Odds: 5.7

7/2

3rd

The Feminine Urge

13.7

OR: 5 Form: 7 Odds: 1.7

18/1

Brandywine Falls

11.8

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 7.3

3/1

Rotation

OR: 4.3 Form: 5 Odds: 0.8

33/1

Karl Carlston

9.3

OR: 4.8 Form: 0.9 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Lilly's Bet

9.2

OR: 4.8 Form: 4.4 Odds: 0

—

Amor Cordis

8.3

OR: 5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.2

22/1

Havana Dance

OR: 4.3 Form: 0.9 Odds: 0.9

50/1

Kaiya

5.2

OR: 4.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

80/1

Dapper Guest

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
The Feminine Urge	70	76	—
Amor Cordis	70	71	—
Dapper Guest	70	76	—
Karl Carlston	69	71	48
Kaiya	69	72	—
Lilly's Bet	69	72	52
Matharu	68	75	72
Brandywine Falls	68	75	52
Rotation	67	74	39
Havana Dance	67	76	—
Telford	60	81	73

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Brandywine Falls	8d ago	Quick return
Karl Carlston	12d ago	Quick return
Dapper Guest	16d ago	Fit
Matharu	22d ago	Fit
The Feminine Urge	22d ago	Fit
Lilly's Bet	22d ago	Fit
Telford	33d ago	Fit
Kaiya	35d ago	Fit
Rotation	40d ago	Fit
Havana Dance	48d ago	Fresh
Amor Cordis	50d ago	Fresh