Betfair Exchange Selling Handicap – Chelmsford (AW)

Chelmsford (AW)

19:30

Betfair Exchange Selling Handicap

Date 2024-10-03

Distance 1m2f

Class Class 6

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,664

Runners (16)

EW Terms: 4 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (4)	Semser Bay J:Rob Hornby T:Gary & Josh Moore	J:Rob Hornby T:Gary & Josh Moore	133	p	745655	53	72	45	44d	—	—	-20	10.1	0.41/1	13/8 38%
Conditions to suit and he's tumbled to a basement mark; one to be interested in
4 (14)	Clear Justice Bay J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Gary & Josh Moore	J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Gary & Josh Moore	131	p	711662	55	69	-	16d	—	—	-2	16.7	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Improving this year and latest Brighton 2nd was a solid effort; more appealing than many
5 (1)	Hurtle Grey J:Finley Marsh T:Paul & Oliver Cole	J:Finley Marsh T:Paul & Oliver Cole	130	p	769200	50	68	49	19d	—	—	-9	6.9	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Tailed off the last twice but well drawn to attack and capable off this mark
9 (2)	Alyara Brown J:Alec Voikhansky(3) T:John & Rhys Flint	J:Alec Voikhansky(3) T:John & Rhys Flint	127	h	572645	47	70	-	50d	—	—	-4	3.7	2.50/1	10/1 9%
On a long losing run but down in weights and retains some ability; each-way shout
1 (5)	Bakersboy Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	135	tp	185086	55	68	52	10d	—	—	-3	3	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Gone backwards after a 9.5f win at Wolverhampton in June; this is weak but others safer
6 (8)	Agapanther Bay J:Callum Shepherd T:Barry Brennan	J:Callum Shepherd T:Barry Brennan	130	—	654815	50	64	-	16d	—	—	+3	8.6	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Low-key stable debut at Brighton 16 days ago; others look stronger
10 (6)	Laurentia Bay J:William Carson T:Stephanie Cassidy	J:William Carson T:Stephanie Cassidy	126	—	571505	46	67	41	51d	—	—	0	4.2	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Six AW wins, the latest off this mark at Lingfield in May (1m2f); less good since
16 (7)	First Encounter Bay J:Joe Leavy(3) T:John Gallagher	J:Joe Leavy(3) T:John Gallagher	122	p	041258	46	67	-	16d	—	—	+2	6.7	5.00/1	20/1 5%
1m turf win in July but he needs to rebound from two heavy defeats
8 (10)	Crazy Maisie Bay J:Robert Havlin T:Mark Hoad	J:Robert Havlin T:Mark Hoad	128	b	474989	48	70	56	121d	—	—	-3	1.1	5.50/1	22/1 4%
C&D win in November off 3lb higher; returns from an absence in new headgear
7 (11)	Velvet Vulcan Bay J:Paddy Bradley T:Mike Murphy & Michael Keady	J:Paddy Bradley T:Mike Murphy & Michael Keady	129	htp	172697	49	68	62	93d	—	—	-1	2.5	5.00/1	20/1 5%
1m4f win in February; quiet when last seen three months ago; new hood today
13 (3)	Juan Cool Dude Bay J:Kaiya Fraser(3) T:Simon Hodgson	J:Kaiya Fraser(3) T:Simon Hodgson	126	—	5-9840	46	57	-	17d	—	—	-2	0.9	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Little solid form and stepping back up in trip not sure to be of benefit
15 (16)	Explosively Bay J:Marco Ghiani T:William Knight	J:Marco Ghiani T:William Knight	122	v	8-4790	46	60	32	14d	—	—	-2	0.8	8.25/1	33/1 3%
No improvement for handicaps the last twice, slowly away; up in trip; too much to prove
14 (12)	Leon Trotsky Bay J:Dylan Hogan T:Julia Feilden	J:Dylan Hogan T:Julia Feilden	125	v	0598	49	54	28	49d	—	—	-2	0.7	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Poor form in four runs this year; addition of a visor needs to spark a transformation
3 (13)	Floridian Bay J:George Wood T:Dr Jon Scargill	J:George Wood T:Dr Jon Scargill	131	—	33-577	55	66	35	22d	—	—	0	1.7	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Promise in maidens but none as yet in handicaps; up in trip and down in grade today
11 (9)	Beautiful Surprise Chestnut J:Christian Howarth(3) T:Roger Ingram	J:Christian Howarth(3) T:Roger Ingram	126	b	000730	46	69	17	16d	—	—	+1	2.4	25.00/1	100/1 1%
Beaten 21 times since a winning 2yo debut; tailed off latest (bled); hard to warm to
NR (15)	Milvus Bay J:TBC T:Denis Coakley	J: T:Denis Coakley	126	—	544336	46	64	55	2d	—	—	—	3.6	—	—
Fair form over shorter trips this year; whether he needs this far still to be confirmed

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Semser	13/8	13/8	13/8
Clear Justice	4/1	4/1	4/1
Hurtle	11/2	5/1	5/1
Alyara	10/1	10/1	10/1
Bakersboy	12/1	12/1	12/1
Agapanther	16/1	14/1	16/1
Laurentia	20/1	18/1	18/1
First Encounter	20/1	20/1	18/1
Crazy Maisie	20/1	22/1	20/1
Velvet Vulcan	20/1	20/1	20/1
Juan Cool Dude	28/1	28/1	28/1
Explosively	33/1	33/1	33/1
Leon Trotsky	33/1	33/1	33/1
Floridian	50/1	40/1	50/1
Beautiful Surprise	100/1	100/1	80/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Clear Justice

16.7

OR: 1.3 Form: 10 Odds: 5.4

4/1

2nd

Semser

10.1

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 9.4

13/8

3rd

Agapanther

8.6

OR: 0 Form: 7 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Hurtle

6.9

OR: 0 Form: 2.5 Odds: 4.4

11/2

First Encounter

6.7

OR: 0 Form: 5.5 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Laurentia

4.2

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Alyara

3.7

OR: 0 Form: 1.5 Odds: 2.2

10/1

Milvus

3.6

OR: 0 Form: 3.6 Odds: 0

—

Bakersboy

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

12/1

Velvet Vulcan

2.5

OR: 0 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1

20/1

Beautiful Surprise

2.4

OR: 0 Form: 2.1 Odds: 0.3

100/1

Floridian

1.7

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

50/1

Crazy Maisie

1.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

22/1

Juan Cool Dude

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

28/1

Explosively

0.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

33/1

Leon Trotsky

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

33/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Clear Justice	55	69	—
Bakersboy	55	68	52
Floridian	55	66	35
Semser	53	72	45
Hurtle	50	68	49
Agapanther	50	64	—
Velvet Vulcan	49	68	62
Leon Trotsky	49	54	28
Crazy Maisie	48	70	56
Alyara	47	70	—
Laurentia	46	67	41
First Encounter	46	67	—
Juan Cool Dude	46	57	—
Explosively	46	60	32
Beautiful Surprise	46	69	17
Milvus	46	64	55

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Milvus	2d ago	Quick return
Bakersboy	10d ago	Quick return
Explosively	14d ago	Fit
Clear Justice	16d ago	Fit
Agapanther	16d ago	Fit
First Encounter	16d ago	Fit
Beautiful Surprise	16d ago	Fit
Juan Cool Dude	17d ago	Fit
Hurtle	19d ago	Fit
Floridian	22d ago	Fit
Semser	44d ago	Fit
Leon Trotsky	49d ago	Fresh
Alyara	50d ago	Fresh
Laurentia	51d ago	Fresh
Velvet Vulcan	93d ago	Long break
Crazy Maisie	121d ago	Long break