Betfair Racing Podcasts Handicap – Chelmsford (AW)

Chelmsford (AW)

16:45

Betfair Racing Podcasts Handicap

Date 2024-10-12

Distance 7f

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £3,664

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (1)	Twitch Brown J:Georgia Dobie T:Craig Benton	J:Georgia Dobie T:Craig Benton	135	b	459211	60	74	62	14d	—	0W/1P 2 runs	-4	34.5	0.31/1	5/4 44%
Has form figures of 211 (all over C&D) since switched to Polytrack; respected
5 (2)	Wilde And Dandy Bay J:Joey Haynes T:Ivan Furtado	J:Joey Haynes T:Ivan Furtado	134	—	824-09	59	76	-	32d	—	—	-10	7.5	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Has form figures of 312 over C&D; interesting off a handy mark back here
6 (6)	Drafted Bay J:Luke Morris T:Danny Brooke	J:Luke Morris T:Danny Brooke	134	p	-60878	59	72	-	11d	—	—	-7	5.9	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Last AW attempt resulted in a win off 7lb higher two years ago; interesting
8 (7)	Dumfries Bay J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	131	b	506083	56	71	59	12d	—	—	-5	8.1	1.50/1	6/1 14%
0-11 for current stable but ran encouragingly with blinkers fitted last time
7 (4)	Alexander James Bay J:Dylan Hogan T:Michael Herrington	J:Dylan Hogan T:Michael Herrington	133	tp	332606	58	70	44	33d	—	—	-4	7.2	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Now 0-19 for present yard but has a fighting chance off current mark
2 (3)	Big Narstie b/br J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	135	t	135070	60	73	64	16d	—	—	0	4.2	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Three AW wins early this year; couple of poor runs since returning from break
10 (8)	Nemorum Bay J:Adam Farragher T:T J Kent	J:Adam Farragher T:T J Kent	121	b	1900-8	46	74	33	23d	—	—	-2	0.8	12.50/1	50/1 2%
C&D win last October; possibly needed the run on belated reappearance
9 (9)	Nubough Bay J:William Carson T:Mark Pattinson	J:William Carson T:Mark Pattinson	131	t	540068	56	73	65	22d	—	—	0	2	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Infrequent winner who has a question mark over current form
11 (5)	Arlo's Sunshine Bay J:Liam Wright(5) T:Stephanie Cassidy	J:Liam Wright(5) T:Stephanie Cassidy	121	—	930455	46	66	-	40d	—	—	0	1	37.50/1	150/1 1%
On a long losing sequence and recent form isn't convincing; new yard
3 (10)	Glen Esk Bay J:Charlie Bennett T:John O'Shea	J:Charlie Bennett T:John O'Shea	135	—	383/00	60	-	27	19d	—	—	+2	2.8	25.00/1	100/1 1%
Has failed to beat a rival in both starts since returning from long absence
NR (11)	Lady Wingalong Grey J:Jordan Williams(5) T:David Evans	J:Jordan Williams(5) T:David Evans	135	—	221362	60	74	58	12d	—	—	—	13	—	—
Largely consistent this year for new yard; good second last time; solid chance

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Twitch	5/4	5/4	5/4	6/5	5/4
Wilde And Dandy	10/3	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2
Drafted	13/2	6/1	13/2	6/1	7/1
Dumfries	11/2	6/1	6/1	6/1	5/1
Alexander James	7/1	7/1	7/1	15/2	15/2
Big Narstie	28/1	25/1	28/1	28/1	28/1
Nemorum	50/1	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1
Nubough	80/1	50/1	66/1	50/1	50/1
Arlo's Sunshine	150/1	66/1	80/1	50/1	50/1
Glen Esk	100/1	100/1	100/1	66/1	100/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Twitch

34.5

OR: 2.5 Form: 19.5 Odds: 12.5

5/4

2nd

Lady Wingalong

OR: 2.5 Form: 10.5 Odds: 0

—

3rd

Dumfries

8.1

OR: 1.5 Form: 3 Odds: 3.6

6/1

Wilde And Dandy

7.5

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 5.2

7/2

Alexander James

7.2

OR: 2 Form: 2.1 Odds: 3.1

15/2

Drafted

5.9

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

7/1

Big Narstie

4.2

OR: 2.5 Form: 0.6 Odds: 1.1

28/1

Glen Esk

2.8

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

100/1

Nubough

OR: 1.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

80/1

Arlo's Sunshine

OR: 0 Form: 0.6 Odds: 0.4

150/1

Nemorum

0.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

50/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Twitch	60	74	62
Big Narstie	60	73	64
Glen Esk	60	—	27
Lady Wingalong	60	74	58
Wilde And Dandy	59	76	—
Drafted	59	72	—
Alexander James	58	70	44
Dumfries	56	71	59
Nubough	56	73	65
Nemorum	46	74	33
Arlo's Sunshine	46	66	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Drafted	11d ago	Quick return
Dumfries	12d ago	Quick return
Lady Wingalong	12d ago	Quick return
Twitch	14d ago	Fit
Big Narstie	16d ago	Fit
Glen Esk	19d ago	Fit
Nubough	22d ago	Fit
Nemorum	23d ago	Fit
Wilde And Dandy	32d ago	Fit
Alexander James	33d ago	Fit
Arlo's Sunshine	40d ago	Fit