Tips For Every Race At Raceday-Ready.com Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

18:30

Tips For Every Race At Raceday-Ready.com Handicap

Date 2024-10-15

Distance 6f

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £4,711

Winning Time 1m 11.52s (slow by 1.12s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Quercus (IRE) Joe Fanning · Ann Duffield	16/1	Won
2nd	Absolute Dream (IRE) Oisin Orr · Richard Fahey	14/1	0.3
3rd	She'sashambles (IRE) Rowan Scott · Phillip Makin	12/1	2.75
4th	Noble Captain (GB) Sam James · Katie Scott	13/2	.75
5th	Muddy Lynn (GB) Dale Swift · Seb Spencer	14/1	.75
6th	Flavius Titus (GB) Ryan Kavanagh · Danny Brooke	12/1	0.05
7th	Missmimi (GB) Joanna Mason · Tina Jackson	9/5F	.75
7th	Ballyare (GB) Paul Mulrennan · Lucinda Russell	7/1	0
9th	Hailey Ya Mal (IRE) Cam Hardie · Antony Brittain	25/1	4
10th	Socialise (IRE) Alex Jary · Nigel Tinkler	18/1	0.2
11th	Boom Boom Pow (GB) Brandon Wilkie · Mark Usher	28/1	3.25
12th	Rain Cap (GB) Rhys Elliott · John David Riches	6/1	7.5

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (6)	Missmimi Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Tina Jackson	J:Joanna Mason T:Tina Jackson	134	—	443212	52	69	57	14d	—	—	-6	25.9	0.44/1	7/4 36%
C&D winner last month and ran even better when 2nd over 5f two weeks ago; in the mix again
4 (10)	Ballyare Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Lucinda Russell	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Lucinda Russell	134	tb	469565	52	67	-	15d	—	—	-9	4.1	1.63/1	13/2 13%
This campaign has been a disappointing one but down in grade and Paul Mulrennan booked
5 (2)	Noble Captain Chestnut J:Sam James T:Katie Scott	J:Sam James T:Katie Scott	133	t	146449	51	67	57	21d	—	—	-8	3.6	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Conditions to suit and should come on for last month's return from a four-month break
10 (4)	Rain Cap Bay J:Rhys Elliott(7) T:John David Riches	J:Rhys Elliott(7) T:John David Riches	131	v	055253	49	65	-	22d	—	—	-1	7.9	2.50/1	10/1 9%
0-11 on AW but he comes here on the back of some good turf runs; others appeal more
6 (11)	Muddy Lynn Bay J:Dale Swift T:Seb Spencer	J:Dale Swift T:Seb Spencer	133	—	6580-5	51	68	41	25d	—	—	-6	2.5	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Not kicked on from last summer's C&D win but her reappearance was promising; may do better
12 (9)	Socialise Bay J:Alex Jary(5) T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Alex Jary(5) T:Nigel Tinkler	130	—	654036	49	63	-	67d	—	—	-2	3.7	3.50/1	14/1 7%
C&D win in April off 5lb higher; mixed record since; needs break to have revived him
1 (3)	Absolute Dream Chestnut J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	134	—	125948	52	67	56	22d	—	—	-4	3.4	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Not as good as he was but retains sufficient ability to prove a force at this level
7 (12)	She'sashambles Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Phillip Makin	J:Rowan Scott T:Phillip Makin	133	—	383135	52	65	56	14d	—	—	+5	9.9	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Turf win in August was followed by a close 3rd over C&D; less good two weeks ago
9 (1)	Quercus Bay J:Joe Fanning T:Ann Duffield	J:Joe Fanning T:Ann Duffield	132	hp	-09206	50	66	-	48d	—	—	-2	4.1	4.50/1	18/1 5%
One good run and four heavy defeats so far this year; plenty to prove on AW
3 (5)	Flavius Titus Chestnut J:Ryan Kavanagh(7) T:Danny Brooke	J:Ryan Kavanagh(7) T:Danny Brooke	134	b	211968	52	68	57	26d	—	—	+2	6.9	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Conditions no problem but he needs to bounce back from three quiet runs
8 (8)	Boom Boom Pow Grey J:Brandon Wilkie(3) T:Mark Usher	J:Brandon Wilkie(3) T:Mark Usher	133	—	724665	51	68	65	62d	—	—	-1	2.2	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Poor strike-rate and quiet last twice; dangerous mark though and good apprentice booked
11 (7)	Hailey Ya Mal Grey J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	130	v	409020	48	66	48	22d	—	—	+1	4.4	7.00/1	28/1 3%
11-race maiden; ran well for second on penultimate start; well held latest; now visored

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Missmimi	13/8	7/4	13/8	13/8	6/4
Ballyare	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2	11/2
Noble Captain	13/2	7/1	13/2	13/2	13/2
Rain Cap	10/1	9/1	9/1	9/1	8/1
Muddy Lynn	10/1	10/1	10/1	10/1	17/2
Socialise	14/1	14/1	14/1	12/1	14/1
Absolute Dream	12/1	12/1	12/1	11/1	11/1
She'sashambles	16/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1
Quercus	18/1	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1
Flavius Titus	20/1	22/1	22/1	22/1	20/1
Boom Boom Pow	25/1	25/1	25/1	22/1	25/1
Hailey Ya Mal	28/1	28/1	28/1	25/1	28/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Missmimi

25.9

OR: 0.5 Form: 15.4 Odds: 10

7/4

2nd

She'sashambles

9.9

OR: 0.5 Form: 8 Odds: 1.4

16/1

3rd

Rain Cap

7.9

OR: 0 Form: 5.5 Odds: 2.4

10/1

Flavius Titus

6.9

OR: 0.5 Form: 5 Odds: 1.4

22/1

Hailey Ya Mal

4.4

OR: 0 Form: 3.5 Odds: 0.9

28/1

Ballyare

4.1

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Quercus

4.1

OR: 0 Form: 2.5 Odds: 1.6

18/1

Socialise

3.7

OR: 0 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.6

14/1

Noble Captain

3.6

OR: 0.3 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

7/1

Absolute Dream

3.4

OR: 0.5 Form: 1 Odds: 1.9

12/1

Muddy Lynn

2.5

OR: 0.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

10/1

Boom Boom Pow

2.2

OR: 0.3 Form: 1 Odds: 1

25/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Missmimi	52	69	57
Ballyare	52	67	—
Absolute Dream	52	67	56
She'sashambles	52	65	56
Flavius Titus	52	68	57
Noble Captain	51	67	57
Muddy Lynn	51	68	41
Boom Boom Pow	51	68	65
Quercus	50	66	—
Rain Cap	49	65	—
Socialise	49	63	—
Hailey Ya Mal	48	66	48

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Missmimi	14d ago	Fit
She'sashambles	14d ago	Fit
Ballyare	15d ago	Fit
Noble Captain	21d ago	Fit
Rain Cap	22d ago	Fit
Absolute Dream	22d ago	Fit
Hailey Ya Mal	22d ago	Fit
Muddy Lynn	25d ago	Fit
Flavius Titus	26d ago	Fit
Quercus	48d ago	Fresh
Boom Boom Pow	62d ago	Fresh
Socialise	67d ago	Fresh

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Missmimi	Prominent
Muddy Lynn	Hold Up

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 12 runners classified.

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.