Southwell Golf Club Handicap – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

19:15

Southwell Golf Club Handicap

Date 2024-10-21

Distance 6f16y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £4,711

Winning Time 1m 14.57s (slow by 2.37s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Evoluir (IRE) Rowan Scott · Roger Fell	6/1	Won
2nd	Calafrio (GB) Brandon Wilkie · Philip Kirby	13/2	.5
3rd	Irish Dancer (IRE) Josephine Gordon · Declan Carroll	4/1J	1.25
4th	Savalas (IRE) Millie Wonnacott · Adrian Wintle	28/1	2.75
5th	Fylingdale (IRE) Sean Kirrane · Tim Easterby	6/1	.5
6th	Captain Dandy (IRE) Marco Ghiani · Stuart Williams	6/1	2.25
7th	Alibi Warning (IRE) Billy Garritty · Richard Fahey	12/1	.75
8th	May Remain (GB) Elle-May Croot · Ivan Furtado	28/1	0.3
9th	Back Tomorrow (GB) Jason Hart · Ewan Whillans	4/1J	0.3
10th	Piper's Fort (IRE) P J McDonald · Katie Scott	33/1	.5
11th	Alextrician (FR) Andrew Elliott · Stella Barclay	28/1	1.5

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5 (7)	Back Tomorrow Bay J:Jason Hart T:Ewan Whillans	J:Jason Hart T:Ewan Whillans	130	—	967984	47	69	39	13d	—	—	-11	4.4	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Faces optimum conditions and ran well for fourth over C&D last time; one to take seriously
8 (9)	Evoluir Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Roger Fell	J:Rowan Scott T:Roger Fell	128	—	227742	46	64	55	35d	—	—	-7	11.2	1.00/1	4/1 20%
0-10 but he's finished second three times, including on latest start; each-way shout
6 (5)	Captain Dandy Bay J:Marco Ghiani T:Stuart Williams	J:Marco Ghiani T:Stuart Williams	130	tv	270795	47	68	46	11d	—	—	-11	4.4	1.38/1	11/2 15%
On a dangerous mark if new headgear/return to optimum trip has the desired effect
10 (1)	Fylingdale Bay J:Sean Kirrane T:Tim Easterby	J:Sean Kirrane T:Tim Easterby	128	t	097368	45	65	-	12d	—	—	-8	5.1	1.75/1	7/1 13%
C&D winner; quiet the last twice but this season's best efforts give her sound claims
9 (3)	Irish Dancer Chestnut J:Josephine Gordon T:Declan Carroll	J:Josephine Gordon T:Declan Carroll	128	—	060503	45	63	55	13d	—	—	-6	6.6	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Two runs here have both been promising; repeat of latest C&D third will see him involved
1 (6)	Calafrio Grey J:Brandon Wilkie(3) T:Philip Kirby	J:Brandon Wilkie(3) T:Philip Kirby	135	p	224185	53	68	-	35d	—	—	-1	9.8	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Impressed in modest event at Thirsk in August; less good since; new headgear; AW a query
7 (10)	Alibi Warning Bay J:Billy Garritty T:Richard Fahey	J:Billy Garritty T:Richard Fahey	129	p	224255	47	67	55	13d	—	—	-2	5.6	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Exposed maiden and not at very best here last time; dangerous if producing a peak effort
12 (2)	Alextrician Bay J:Andrew Elliott T:Stella Barclay	J:Andrew Elliott T:Stella Barclay	127	v	424886	45	61	49	80d	—	—	-2	2	6.25/1	25/1 4%
11-race maiden but has shown some promise; wind op since last seen; unexposed at 6f
3 (8)	Savalas Grey J:Millie Wonnacott(5) T:Adrian Wintle	J:Millie Wonnacott(5) T:Adrian Wintle	131	p	069615	48	64	46	16d	—	—	+4	8.1	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Came from well back to win at Bath last month; less good at Wolverhampton latest
2 (12)	May Remain Bay J:Elle-May Croot(5) T:Ivan Furtado	J:Elle-May Croot(5) T:Ivan Furtado	135	—	153870	52	68	55	30d	—	—	-1	2.4	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Front-runner; conditions fine and on a dangerous mark; needs to step up on recent return
4 (11)	Piper's Fort Bay J:P J McDonald T:Katie Scott	J:P J McDonald T:Katie Scott	131	t	557307	49	67	-	19d	—	—	-1	2.4	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Turf win for A Watson in June; yet to fire for current stable; tongue-tie now added
NR (4)	Lil Wade Bay J:Mikkel Mortensen(5) T:Scott Dixon	J:Mikkel Mortensen(5) T:Scott Dixon	128	—	728064	45	63	51	16d	—	—	—	1	—	—
Exposed maiden; conditions no issue but others appeal more for the win

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Back Tomorrow	9/2	9/2	9/2
Evoluir	7/2	10/3	4/1
Captain Dandy	11/2	5/1	11/2
Fylingdale	7/1	13/2	13/2
Irish Dancer	7/1	7/1	15/2
Calafrio	8/1	7/1	7/1
Alibi Warning	12/1	11/1	11/1
Alextrician	25/1	22/1	22/1
Savalas	22/1	20/1	20/1
May Remain	25/1	25/1	22/1
Piper's Fort	28/1	25/1	28/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Evoluir

11.2

OR: 0 Form: 6 Odds: 5.2

4/1

2nd

Calafrio

9.8

OR: 0.8 Form: 6 Odds: 3.1

8/1

3rd

Savalas

8.1

OR: 0 Form: 7 Odds: 1.1

22/1

Irish Dancer

6.6

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 3.6

15/2

Alibi Warning

5.6

OR: 0 Form: 3.5 Odds: 2.1

12/1

Fylingdale

5.1

OR: 0 Form: 1.5 Odds: 3.6

7/1

Back Tomorrow

4.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Captain Dandy

4.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

11/2

May Remain

2.4

OR: 0.5 Form: 0.9 Odds: 1

25/1

Piper's Fort

2.4

OR: 0 Form: 1.5 Odds: 0.9

28/1

Alextrician

OR: 0 Form: 1 Odds: 1

25/1

Lil Wade

OR: 0 Form: 1 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Calafrio	53	68	—
May Remain	52	68	55
Piper's Fort	49	67	—
Savalas	48	64	46
Back Tomorrow	47	69	39
Captain Dandy	47	68	46
Alibi Warning	47	67	55
Evoluir	46	64	55
Fylingdale	45	65	—
Irish Dancer	45	63	55
Alextrician	45	61	49
Lil Wade	45	63	51

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Captain Dandy	11d ago	Quick return
Fylingdale	12d ago	Quick return
Back Tomorrow	13d ago	Quick return
Irish Dancer	13d ago	Quick return
Alibi Warning	13d ago	Quick return
Savalas	16d ago	Fit
Lil Wade	16d ago	Fit
Piper's Fort	19d ago	Fit
May Remain	30d ago	Fit
Evoluir	35d ago	Fit
Calafrio	35d ago	Fit
Alextrician	80d ago	Fresh

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
May Remain	Front Runner
Savalas	Hold Up

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 12 runners classified.

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 6f16y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 7 draws with historical results at this course and distance.