Weekly £5 Free Bet With BetUK Handicap (Div I) – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

5:45

Weekly £5 Free Bet With BetUK Handicap (Div I)

Date 2024-10-28

Distance 5f

Class Class 5

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £5,234

Runners (10)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
7 (4)	Dandy Dinmont b J:Alex Jary(5) T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Alex Jary(5) T:Nigel Tinkler	131	—	146686	68	84	46	23d	—	—	-9	9.9	7/2 22%
Nicely handicapped; return to 5f is ideal and has won over C&D
9 (6)	Herakles b J:Mark Winn T:Paul Midgley	J:Mark Winn T:Paul Midgley	128	—	166965	65	86	73	25d	—	—	-7	8.2	5/1 17%
Not disgraced here last time but needs to improve on that effort
8 (8)	Castan ch J:Dougie Costello T:Bryan Smart	J:Dougie Costello T:Bryan Smart	129	—	780500	66	86	70	33d	—	—	-7	8.4	11/2 15%
Defied a 10lb higher mark here in March; below that form since
5 (9)	Water Of Leith b J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	133	—	541931	70	85	48	39d	—	—	+8	25.1	9/2 18%
Has crept back up the weights but is still well treated on peak form
3 (3)	Dark Kestrel b J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	135	t	109043	72	86	63	18d	—	—	0	11.8	7/1 13%
Back in better form last month; good chance if the cards drop right
6 (2)	Nelson Gay b J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Michael Dods	J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Michael Dods	132	—	305526	69	87	62	58d	—	—	+2	10.5	9/1 10%
Has defied higher marks four times on AW; enters calculations
1 (7)	Love Wars b J:Oisin Orr T:John & Sean Quinn	J:Oisin Orr T:John & Sean Quinn	137	—	-52760	74	86	-	52d	—	—	+3	9.1	16/1 6%
Best turf form gives her possibilities off current mark on AW debut
2 (10)	Brian The Snail gr J:Ryan Kavanagh(7) T:Patrick Morris	J:Ryan Kavanagh(7) T:Patrick Morris	136	p	219540	73	75	70	43d	—	—	+4	9.4	16/1 6%
Veteran who returns to AW off a stiff-looking mark; others preferred
4 (1)	A Girl Named Ivy gr J:Sean Kirrane T:Michael Dods	J:Sean Kirrane T:Michael Dods	134	—	-10104	71	82	-	35d	—	—	+9	13.3	22/1 4%
Latest effort suggests this drop to 5f is worth exploring; AW debut
10 (5)	Cool Run b J:Ryan Sexton T:Julie Camacho	J:Ryan Sexton T:Julie Camacho	125	b	2-5066	62	80	40	103d	—	—	+5	7.1	40/1 2%
Combination of further wind surgery and new headgear needs to help

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Dandy Dinmont	7/2	7/2	7/2	10/3	7/2
Herakles	5/1	9/2	5/1	5/1	5/1
Castan	5/1	9/2	11/2	11/2	5/1
Water Of Leith	4/1	9/2	4/1	4/1	7/2
Dark Kestrel	7/1	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2
Nelson Gay	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1
Love Wars	14/1	16/1	14/1	14/1	16/1
Brian The Snail	16/1	14/1	16/1	14/1	16/1
A Girl Named Ivy	22/1	20/1	20/1	18/1	20/1
Cool Run	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Water Of Leith

25.1

OR: 5 Form: 15.1 Odds: 5

9/2

2nd

A Girl Named Ivy

13.3

OR: 5.3 Form: 7 Odds: 1.1

22/1

3rd

Dark Kestrel

11.8

OR: 5.5 Form: 3 Odds: 3.3

7/1

Nelson Gay

10.5

OR: 4.8 Form: 3.5 Odds: 2.2

9/1

Dandy Dinmont

9.9

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 5.4

7/2

Brian The Snail

9.4

OR: 5.8 Form: 2 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Love Wars

9.1

OR: 6 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Castan

8.4

OR: 4 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

11/2

Herakles

8.2

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

5/1

Cool Run

7.1

OR: 3 Form: 3.5 Odds: 0.6

40/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Love Wars Top Rated	74	86	—
Brian The Snail	73	75	70
Dark Kestrel	72	86	63
A Girl Named Ivy	71	82	—
Water Of Leith	70	85	48
Nelson Gay	69	87	62
Dandy Dinmont	68	84	46
Castan	66	86	70
Herakles	65	86	73
Cool Run	62	80	40

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Dark Kestrel	18d ago	Fit
Dandy Dinmont	23d ago	Fit
Herakles	25d ago	Fit
Castan	33d ago	Fit
A Girl Named Ivy	35d ago	Fit
Water Of Leith	39d ago	Fit
Brian The Snail	43d ago	Fit
Love Wars	52d ago	Fresh
Nelson Gay	58d ago	Fresh
Cool Run	103d ago	Long break