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Southwell (AW)

6:30

Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM Nursery Handicap

Date 2024-10-28
Distance 4f214y
Class Class 4
Going Standard
Type Flat
Surface AW
Age Band 2yo
Prize £4,972

Runners (10)

# Silk Horse Jockey / Trainer Wt Gear Form OR RPR TS Last Crs Dst Val Scr Odds
3 (1)
Force And Valour
b
J:Hector Crouch
T:George Scott
J:Hector Crouch
T:George Scott
 131 — 3173
78
90
-
 39d — — -9
27.3
11/8
42%
Should be fine with the drop from 6f if he can get away better; goes on the shortlist
6 (5)
Pouting
b
J:Finley Marsh
T:Richard Hughes
J:Finley Marsh
T:Richard Hughes
 128 — 22054
75
86
-
 55d — — -5
14.5
4/1
20%
First crack at 5f since her debut in the spring; one to consider for a yard in good form
9 (7)
Lady Roxby
b
J:Lewis Edmunds
T:Bryan Smart
J:Lewis Edmunds
T:Bryan Smart
 124 — 4361
71
92
-
 44d — — +10
19.4
9/1
10%
11lb rise will test her on AW debut (half-sister to multiple Tapeta winner Lezardrieux)
2 (2)
Al Hussar
b
J:Sam James
T:Grant Tuer
J:Sam James
T:Grant Tuer
 134 — 318015
81
91
-
 17d — — +10
19.4
9/1
10%
Suited by soft ground; not as good under a penalty latest and starting to look exposed now
7 (10)
Commander Atkinson
b
J:Billy Garritty
T:Geoff Oldroyd
J:Billy Garritty
T:Geoff Oldroyd
 125 — 5802
72
91
42
 26d — — +6
12.4
12/1
8%
Beaten a neck by Al Hussar at Catterick early in the month; will find this tougher
8 (3)
Mister McGregor
ch
J:Jason Watson
T:Andrew Balding
J:Jason Watson
T:Andrew Balding
 125 — 27300
72
87
-
 59d — — +3
9.7
14/1
7%
Gone the wrong way but this is more realistic on his AW debut having been gelded
1 (4)
Amerjeet
b
J:Luke Morris
T:Archie Watson
J:Luke Morris
T:Archie Watson
 135 p 34417
82
87
57
 64d — — +11
17.3
20/1
5%
Been off for two months; happier on the AW than turf from limited evidence but needs more
4 (8)
Music History
b
J:Aidan Keeley
T:Edward Bethell
J:Aidan Keeley
T:Edward Bethell
 130 — 881675
77
91
-
 35d — — +7
10.7
22/1
4%
Well held back into nursery company latest; 13lb higher than when winning in high summer
5 (6)
Baileys Jubilation
b
J:Joe Fanning
T:Charlie Johnston
J:Joe Fanning
T:Charlie Johnston
 130 — 541045
77
90
-
 39d — — +8
10.3
40/1
2%
Didn't see out 6f behind Force And Valour last time but will do well to turn things round
10 (9)
Bantz
b
J:Saffie Osborne
T:Gemma Tutty
J:Saffie Osborne
T:Gemma Tutty
 121 — 42600
68
87
69
 65d — — +4
6.7
33/1
3%
Went the wrong way for William Haggas; this is more realistic back to nursery company
Horse bet365 William Hill Boyle Sports Ladbrokes Unibet
Force And Valour
 11/8 11/8 11/8 5/4 11/8
Pouting
 10/3 7/2 7/2 4/1 3/1
Lady Roxby
 9/1 8/1 8/1 8/1 8/1
Al Hussar
 9/1 17/2 17/2 17/2 8/1
Commander Atkinson
 11/1 11/1 11/1 12/1 10/1
Mister McGregor
 14/1 12/1 14/1 12/1 14/1
Amerjeet
 20/1 16/1 16/1 16/1 18/1
Music History
 22/1 22/1 22/1 22/1 22/1
Baileys Jubilation
 33/1 33/1 33/1 33/1 40/1
Bantz
 33/1 33/1 33/1 28/1 28/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st Force And Valour
27.3
OR: 7 Form: 8.9 Odds: 11.4
11/8
2nd Lady Roxby
19.4
OR: 5.3 Form: 11.5 Odds: 2.7
9/1
3rd Al Hussar
19.4
OR: 7.8 Form: 9 Odds: 2.7
9/1
4 Amerjeet
17.3
OR: 8 Form: 7.6 Odds: 1.7
20/1
5 Pouting
14.5
OR: 6.3 Form: 2.5 Odds: 5.7
4/1
6 Commander Atkinson
12.4
OR: 5.5 Form: 5 Odds: 1.9
12/1
7 Music History
10.7
OR: 6.8 Form: 3 Odds: 1
22/1
8 Baileys Jubilation
10.3
OR: 6.8 Form: 3 Odds: 0.6
40/1
9 Mister McGregor
9.7
OR: 5.5 Form: 2.5 Odds: 1.7
14/1
10 Bantz
6.7
OR: 4.5 Form: 1.5 Odds: 0.7
33/1

Ratings

HorseORRPRTS
Amerjeet Top Rated
82
87
57
Al Hussar
81
91
 —
Force And Valour
78
90
 —
Music History
77
91
 —
Baileys Jubilation
77
90
 —
Pouting
75
86
 —
Commander Atkinson
72
91
42
Mister McGregor
72
87
 —
Lady Roxby
71
92
 —
Bantz
68
87
69

Last Run

HorseLast RunStatus
Al Hussar 17d ago Fit
Commander Atkinson 26d ago Fit
Music History 35d ago Fit
Force And Valour 39d ago Fit
Baileys Jubilation 39d ago Fit
Lady Roxby 44d ago Fit
Pouting 55d ago Fresh
Mister McGregor 59d ago Fresh
Amerjeet 64d ago Fresh
Bantz 65d ago Fresh