Free Bets With BetUK Bet Club Fillies' Handicap – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

16:10

Free Bets With BetUK Bet Club Fillies' Handicap

Date 2024-10-31

Distance 1m3f23y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,716

Runners (8)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (2)	Carpathian Bay J:Callum Rodriguez T:James Ferguson	J:Callum Rodriguez T:James Ferguson	137	—	532187	72	75	59	20d	—	—	-4	19.9	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Won at Kempton (1m4f, AW) in August; never dangerous when back there (25-1) on latest
2 (3)	Achillea Bay J:Robert Havlin T:Dean Ivory	J:Robert Havlin T:Dean Ivory	138	—	095771	68	78	57	28d	—	—	-2	21.4	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Won off career-low mark at Chelmsford (1m2f, Polytrack) four weeks ago; back up 4lb
1 (1)	D Day Arvalenreeva Chestnut J:Benoit De La Sayette T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	J:Benoit De La Sayette T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	142	p	3-2229	72	73	-	26d	—	—	-2	11.2	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Knocking loudly on door until struggling at Newmarket on latest start; headgear first time
3 (6)	Aim For The Moon Bay J:Darragh Keenan T:Michael Wigham	J:Darragh Keenan T:Michael Wigham	137	t	515285	67	74	36	28d	—	—	0	12.1	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Never-dangerous fifth to Achillea at Chelmsford last time; like her, moves up from 1m2f
6 (8)	Caramay Grey J:Tyler Heard T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	J:Tyler Heard T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	129	p	152611	59	76	66	14d	0W/1P 1 run	0W/1P 1 run	+13	23.8	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Cheekpieces last three starts; up another 3lb but looks a huge player in hat-trick bid
5 (7)	Fillyfudge Bay J:George Wood T:Amy Murphy	J:George Wood T:Amy Murphy	134	v	841434	64	74	50	19d	—	—	+4	10.3	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Not proven over this far or on Tapeta but has to enter each-way calculations
8 (4)	Vision Of Hope Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Simon Pearce	J:Jack Mitchell T:Simon Pearce	127	—	335249	57	77	62	—	—	—	+1	6.2	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Well beaten on last two starts (Flat/hurdles) but can't be dismissed
7 (5)	Shady Bay Bay J:Saffie Osborne T:Tom Ward	J:Saffie Osborne T:Tom Ward	128	—	839	63	69	24	29d	—	—	+3	6.1	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Some ability on second start and 125-1 latest; handicap newcomer who could raise her game

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Carpathian	5/2	5/2	5/2	5/2	5/2
Achillea	5/2	5/2	5/2	5/2	5/2
D Day Arvalenreeva	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2	5/1
Aim For The Moon	6/1	13/2	6/1	6/1	6/1
Caramay	7/1	7/1	7/1	7/1	7/1
Fillyfudge	14/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Vision Of Hope	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1	18/1
Shady Bay	28/1	28/1	28/1	28/1	25/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Caramay

23.8

OR: 2.3 Form: 18.5 Odds: 3.1

7/1

2nd

Achillea

21.4

OR: 4.5 Form: 10 Odds: 6.9

5/2

3rd

Carpathian

19.9

OR: 5.5 Form: 7.1 Odds: 7.3

5/2

Aim For The Moon

12.1

OR: 4.3 Form: 4.5 Odds: 3.3

13/2

D Day Arvalenreeva

11.2

OR: 5.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Fillyfudge

10.3

OR: 3.5 Form: 5.1 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Vision Of Hope

6.2

OR: 1.8 Form: 3.1 Odds: 1.4

18/1

Shady Bay

6.1

OR: 3.3 Form: 2.1 Odds: 0.8

28/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Carpathian	72	75	59
D Day Arvalenreeva	72	73	—
Achillea	68	78	57
Aim For The Moon	67	74	36
Fillyfudge	64	74	50
Shady Bay	63	69	24
Caramay	59	76	66
Vision Of Hope	57	77	62

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Caramay	14d ago	Fit
Fillyfudge	19d ago	Fit
Carpathian	20d ago	Fit
D Day Arvalenreeva	26d ago	Fit
Achillea	28d ago	Fit
Aim For The Moon	28d ago	Fit
Shady Bay	29d ago	Fit
Vision Of Hope	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m3f23y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.