Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM Nursery Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

15:05

Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM Nursery Handicap

Date 2024-11-01

Distance 5f

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £2,983

Winning Time 1m 1.53s (slow by 4.03s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Monticristo Boy (IRE) Faye McManoman · Nigel Tinkler	9/2	Won
2nd	Blue Lakota (IRE) Tom Eaves · Kevin Ryan	15/8F	0.1
3rd	Lima Sierra (GB) Rowan Scott · Nigel Tinkler	4/1	1.5
4th	Kaleidoscope Eyes (IRE) Alistair Rawlinson · Michael Appleby	3/1	0.3
5th	Invincible Love (GB) Joe Fanning · Charlie Johnston	10/1	2
6th	La Mer Grise (GB) Jack Doughty · Tony Carroll	28/1	11

Runners (6)

EW Terms: 2 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (6)	Blue Lakota Chestnut J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	133	—	690	55	62	-	64d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	-17	9.3	0.56/1	9/4 31%
Well beaten in three starts on turf, but is a half-brother to a couple of AW winners
5 (3)	Kaleidoscope Eyes Bay J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	129	—	475342	51	64	57	8d	—	—	-10	14	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Second on stable debut over 7f last time and 2lb well in; drop to 5f an interesting move
4 (1)	Monticristo Boy Bay J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	131	t	802324	53	65	50	14d	—	—	-4	11.7	1.25/1	5/1 17%
In the frame in all four starts in nurseries; shouldn't mind the return to 5f
1 (4)	Lima Sierra Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Rowan Scott T:Nigel Tinkler	135	—	656	57	61	-	23d	—	—	-10	6.8	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Stable won this with a nursery/AW debutant last year; worth a market check
3 (5)	Invincible Love Chestnut J:Joe Fanning T:Charlie Johnston	J:Joe Fanning T:Charlie Johnston	132	—	8680	54	63	18	18d	—	—	-5	3.4	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Moderate form to date; needs the drop in trip and switch to Tapeta to make a difference
6 (2)	La Mer Grise Grey J:Jack Doughty(5) T:Tony Carroll	J:Jack Doughty(5) T:Tony Carroll	124	—	807	46	58	-	91d	—	—	-3	1	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Well held in three starts on turf, but her dam won twice on the AW; worth a market check

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Blue Lakota	2/1	2/1	2/1	9/4	85/40
Kaleidoscope Eyes	11/4	11/4	11/4	5/2	5/2
Monticristo Boy	5/1	9/2	9/2	4/1	5/1
Lima Sierra	9/2	9/2	9/2	4/1	9/2
Invincible Love	8/1	17/2	17/2	8/1	17/2
La Mer Grise	28/1	28/1	28/1	28/1	20/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Kaleidoscope Eyes

OR: 0.3 Form: 6.5 Odds: 7.3

11/4

2nd

Monticristo Boy

11.7

OR: 0.8 Form: 6.5 Odds: 4.4

5/1

3rd

Blue Lakota

9.3

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 8

9/4

Lima Sierra

6.8

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 5

9/2

Invincible Love

3.4

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

17/2

La Mer Grise

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1

28/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Lima Sierra	57	61	—
Blue Lakota	55	62	—
Invincible Love	54	63	18
Monticristo Boy	53	65	50
Kaleidoscope Eyes	51	64	57
La Mer Grise	46	58	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Kaleidoscope Eyes	8d ago	Quick return
Monticristo Boy	14d ago	Fit
Invincible Love	18d ago	Fit
Lima Sierra	23d ago	Fit
Blue Lakota	64d ago	Fresh
La Mer Grise	91d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 5f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.