Free Bets With BetUK Bet Club Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

16:45

Free Bets With BetUK Bet Club Handicap

Date 2024-11-01

Distance 5f

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £4,711

Winning Time 59.95s (slow by 2.45s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Blue Force (IRE) Cam Hardie · Antony Brittain	11/2	Won
2nd	Calafrio (GB) Brandon Wilkie · Philip Kirby	5/1	.5
3rd	Howzak (GB) Billy Garritty · Liam Bailey	14/1	0.1
4th	She'sashambles (IRE) Rowan Scott · Phillip Makin	17/2	1.5
5th	Cuban Rock (GB) Lauren Young · Jim Goldie	22/1	0.2
6th	Rogue De Vega (GB) Alex Jary · Antony Brittain	11/1	.5
7th	Phoenix Star (IRE) Oliver Stammers · Jessica Macey	17/2	.75
8th	Three Beauz (GB) Kaiya Fraser · Rebecca Menzies	9/2F	2
9th	Second Collection (GB) Jack Doughty · Tony Carroll	14/1	1.25
10th	Jack Of Clubs (GB) Paul Mulrennan · Michael Dods	10/1	4
11th	Northerner (IRE) Ben Robinson · Brian Ellison	15/2	4.5

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6 (2)	Three Beauz Brown J:Kaiya Fraser(3) T:Rebecca Menzies	J:Kaiya Fraser(3) T:Rebecca Menzies	134	t	901256	57	71	54	4d	—	—	-4	11.7	1.25/1	5/1 17%
C&D win in July; had wind op prior to Monday's Southwell sixth; not discounted
1 (6)	Blue Force Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	137	—	021832	60	74	60	18d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	+4	17.6	1.38/1	11/2 15%
His two best runs have come over C&D; not fully exposed; should go well again
8 (4)	Calafrio Grey J:Brandon Wilkie(3) T:Philip Kirby	J:Brandon Wilkie(3) T:Philip Kirby	130	p	241852	53	73	65	11d	—	—	-1	12.8	1.38/1	11/2 15%
6f win at Thirsk in August; good 2nd at Southwell latest; drop to 5f worth exploring
7 (1)	Northerner Bay J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	131	p	296442	54	73	61	10d	—	—	-1	8.7	1.88/1	15/2 12%
8-race maiden but her last two C&D runs have been encouraging and she's a strong contender
10 (5)	She'sashambles Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Phillip Makin	J:Rowan Scott T:Phillip Makin	129	—	831353	52	70	61	17d	—	—	+2	11.1	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Comes here in good order and she holds each-way claims once again
4 (3)	Phoenix Star Bay J:Oliver Stammers T:Jessica Macey	J:Oliver Stammers T:Jessica Macey	135	p	260847	58	71	42	99d	—	—	-5	4.7	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Has his optimum conditions today and returns to AW on a good mark; one for the shortlist
5 (10)	Jack Of Clubs Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Michael Dods	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Michael Dods	135	—	216842	58	72	36	40d	—	—	+3	11.4	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Not the most consistent but capable off this mark and a stiff 5f no problem; respected
3 (7)	Rogue De Vega Bay J:Alex Jary(5) T:Antony Brittain	J:Alex Jary(5) T:Antony Brittain	136	h	902082	59	72	65	15d	—	—	+3	10.9	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Good second at Southwell last time but overall record suggests he's not sure to back it up
2 (9)	Howzak Bay J:Billy Garritty T:Liam Bailey	J:Billy Garritty T:Liam Bailey	137	—	535023	60	71	49	8d	—	—	+5	11.2	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Prominent racer; solid efforts in 5f Tapeta handicaps the last twice; vulnerable late on
9 (11)	Second Collection Bay J:Jack Doughty(5) T:Tony Carroll	J:Jack Doughty(5) T:Tony Carroll	130	—	412480	53	72	-	47d	—	—	0	6	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Not at her best on last two starts; most recent AW run was a winning one; first course run
11 (8)	Cuban Rock Chestnut J:Lauren Young(7) T:Jim Goldie	J:Lauren Young(7) T:Jim Goldie	123	—	390435	46	69	22	10d	—	—	-1	3.2	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Ran okay over C&D ten days ago but more will be needed to win here

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Three Beauz	9/2	5/1	9/2	9/2	9/2
Blue Force	9/2	11/2	5/1	11/2	9/2
Calafrio	11/2	5/1	5/1	9/2	5/1
Northerner	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
She'sashambles	9/1	17/2	9/1	8/1	11/1
Phoenix Star	9/1	17/2	9/1	8/1	9/1
Jack Of Clubs	8/1	10/1	9/1	9/1	8/1
Rogue De Vega	11/1	11/1	11/1	10/1	11/1
Howzak	16/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	16/1
Second Collection	16/1	16/1	16/1	14/1	18/1
Cuban Rock	25/1	20/1	20/1	22/1	20/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Blue Force

17.6

OR: 2.5 Form: 11.1 Odds: 4

11/2

2nd

Calafrio

12.8

OR: 0.8 Form: 8 Odds: 4

11/2

3rd

Three Beauz

11.7

OR: 1.8 Form: 5.5 Odds: 4.4

5/1

Jack Of Clubs

11.4

OR: 2 Form: 7 Odds: 2.4

10/1

Howzak

11.2

OR: 2.5 Form: 7.1 Odds: 1.6

16/1

She'sashambles

11.1

OR: 0.5 Form: 8.1 Odds: 2.5

11/1

Rogue De Vega

10.9

OR: 2.3 Form: 6.5 Odds: 2.1

11/1

Northerner

8.7

OR: 1 Form: 5 Odds: 2.7

15/2

Second Collection

OR: 0.8 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1.7

18/1

Phoenix Star

4.7

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

9/1

Cuban Rock

3.2

OR: 0 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.1

25/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Blue Force	60	74	60
Howzak	60	71	49
Rogue De Vega	59	72	65
Phoenix Star	58	71	42
Jack Of Clubs	58	72	36
Three Beauz	57	71	54
Northerner	54	73	61
Calafrio	53	73	65
Second Collection	53	72	—
She'sashambles	52	70	61
Cuban Rock	46	69	22

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Three Beauz	4d ago	Quick return
Howzak	8d ago	Quick return
Northerner	10d ago	Quick return
Cuban Rock	10d ago	Quick return
Calafrio	11d ago	Quick return
Rogue De Vega	15d ago	Fit
She'sashambles	17d ago	Fit
Blue Force	18d ago	Fit
Jack Of Clubs	40d ago	Fit
Second Collection	47d ago	Fresh
Phoenix Star	99d ago	Long break

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Jack Of Clubs	Prominent
Howzak	Prominent

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 11 runners classified.

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 5f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.