Gamble Responsibly At BetUK Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

18:15

Gamble Responsibly At BetUK Handicap

Date 2024-11-08

Distance 5f

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £2,983

Winning Time 59.56s (slow by 2.06s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	HK Fourteen (IRE) Andrew Mullen · Tony Carroll	15/8F	Won
2nd	Blackcurrent (GB) Tom Eaves · Alan Brown	16/1	.75
3rd	Ninety Nine (IRE) Jason Hart · John Wainwright	25/1	.5
4th	Rockley Point (GB) Ryan Sexton · Katie Scott	50/1	0.1
5th	Pockley (GB) Rowan Scott · Linda Perratt	13/2	0.3
6th	Stallone (IRE) Faye McManoman · Michael Dods	22/1	1.75
7th	The Princes Poet (GB) Harry Burns · Ian McInnes	28/1	0.1
8th	Calafrio (GB) Brandon Wilkie · Philip Kirby	11/4	.5
9th	Cuban Rock (GB) Paul Mulrennan · Jim Goldie	6/1	.5
10th	Elzaal (IRE) David Nolan · Paul Midgley	7/1	1.75
11th	Mecca's Duchess (IRE) Sean Kirrane · Michael Dods	28/1	.75
12th	Joshua R (IRE) James Sullivan · Helen Cuthbert	80/1	3.5

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (5)	HK Fourteen Chestnut J:Andrew Mullen T:Tony Carroll	J:Andrew Mullen T:Tony Carroll	142	—	900011	59	71	-	1d	—	—	-1	28.1	0.47/1	15/8 35%
Landed gamble at Bath last week; followed up (6f) on Thurs; 10lb penalty; still well in
1 (4)	Calafrio Grey J:Brandon Wilkie(3) T:Philip Kirby	J:Brandon Wilkie(3) T:Philip Kirby	137	p	418522	54	66	58	7d	—	—	-2	17.2	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Two good runs on AW since cheekpieces went on, second over C&D last week; solid contender
7 (9)	Elzaal Bay J:David Nolan T:Paul Midgley	J:David Nolan T:Paul Midgley	130	—	850077	47	70	20	17d	—	—	-11	4.4	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Multiple C&D winner; down to a lowly mark and he's one to take seriously
6 (1)	Pockley Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Linda Perratt	J:Rowan Scott T:Linda Perratt	131	—	009800	48	61	41	17d	—	—	-9	3.6	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Tumbled down weights but with good reason; no better for return to AW latest; too risky
10 (7)	Cuban Rock Chestnut J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	129	—	904355	46	63	46	7d	—	—	-6	4.4	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Not the most convincing but last two C&D runs have been OK and P Mulrennan now takes over
11 (11)	Blackcurrent Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Alan Brown	J:Tom Eaves T:Alan Brown	129	p	446557	46	62	54	17d	—	—	-3	1.2	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Drawn a blank so far in 2024; usually apprentice ridden but not today; others preferred
4 (3)	Ninety Nine Bay J:Jason Hart T:John Wainwright	J:Jason Hart T:John Wainwright	134	p	960071	51	70	-	10d	—	—	+7	11.6	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Made all in new cheekpieces at Catterick ten days ago (5f, soft); not sure to back it up
5 (2)	Stallone Bay J:Faye McManoman T:Michael Dods	J:Faye McManoman T:Michael Dods	132	v	945943	49	68	51	17d	—	—	0	4	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Good 3rd over C&D last time (in front of some reopposing rivals); each-way shout again
8 (6)	The Princes Poet Bay J:Harry Burns(3) T:Ian McInnes	J:Harry Burns(3) T:Ian McInnes	129	eb	800944	46	64	34	10d	—	—	-2	0.9	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Ran well in face of adversity over C&D last month; less good at 6f latest; not ruled out
3 (10)	Mecca's Duchess Grey J:Sean Kirrane T:Michael Dods	J:Sean Kirrane T:Michael Dods	135	b	374530	52	65	57	17d	—	—	-1	4	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Exposed maiden; behind a few of these over C&D last month; stable run two here
9 (12)	Rockley Point Bay J:Ryan Sexton T:Katie Scott	J:Ryan Sexton T:Katie Scott	129	v	503309	46	65	53	15d	—	—	+1	2.9	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Placed twice over C&D last month; below par the next twice; others safer
12 (8)	Joshua R Bay J:James Sullivan T:Helen Cuthbert	J:James Sullivan T:Helen Cuthbert	129	p	4-9600	46	47	28	17d	—	—	-1	0.3	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Conditions to suit but he's not fired this year and others bring more pressing claims

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
HK Fourteen	7/4	7/4	7/4	7/4	15/8
Calafrio	3/1	10/3	10/3	10/3	3/1
Elzaal	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2	5/1
Pockley	6/1	13/2	6/1	7/1	11/2
Cuban Rock	9/1	8/1	8/1	15/2	8/1
Blackcurrent	22/1	20/1	20/1	20/1	16/1
Ninety Nine	28/1	20/1	20/1	16/1	14/1
Stallone	25/1	22/1	22/1	20/1	20/1
The Princes Poet	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1	22/1
Mecca's Duchess	40/1	33/1	28/1	25/1	14/1
Rockley Point	66/1	66/1	66/1	66/1	40/1
Joshua R	150/1	100/1	80/1	80/1	66/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

HK Fourteen

28.1

OR: 2.3 Form: 17 Odds: 8.9

15/8

2nd

Calafrio

17.2

OR: 1 Form: 10.5 Odds: 5.7

10/3

3rd

Ninety Nine

11.6

OR: 0.3 Form: 10 Odds: 1.4

28/1

Elzaal

4.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

11/2

Cuban Rock

4.4

OR: 0 Form: 1.5 Odds: 2.9

9/1

Stallone

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 1

25/1

Mecca's Duchess

OR: 0.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.4

40/1

Pockley

3.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

7/1

Rockley Point

2.9

OR: 0 Form: 2.4 Odds: 0.5

66/1

Blackcurrent

1.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

22/1

The Princes Poet

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

33/1

Joshua R

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

150/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
HK Fourteen	59	71	—
Calafrio	54	66	58
Mecca's Duchess	52	65	57
Ninety Nine	51	70	—
Stallone	49	68	51
Pockley	48	61	41
Elzaal	47	70	20
Cuban Rock	46	63	46
Blackcurrent	46	62	54
The Princes Poet	46	64	34
Rockley Point	46	65	53
Joshua R	46	47	28

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
HK Fourteen	1d ago	Quick return
Calafrio	7d ago	Quick return
Cuban Rock	7d ago	Quick return
Ninety Nine	10d ago	Quick return
The Princes Poet	10d ago	Quick return
Rockley Point	15d ago	Fit
Elzaal	17d ago	Fit
Pockley	17d ago	Fit
Blackcurrent	17d ago	Fit
Stallone	17d ago	Fit
Mecca's Duchess	17d ago	Fit
Joshua R	17d ago	Fit

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 5f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.