BetUK Churchill Stakes (Listed Race) – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

15:15

BetUK Churchill Stakes (Listed Race)

Date 2024-11-16

Distance 1m2f42y

Class Class 1

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £28,355

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (6)	Dubai Honour Bay J:Adam Farragher T:William Haggas	J:Adam Farragher T:William Haggas	137	t	173172	118	126	82	76d	—	—	+6	37.9	0.38/1	6/4 40%
Readily won Kempton Listed race in April; Group 1 penalty this time but still one to beat
4 (7)	Peace Man Bay J:Robert Havlin T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Robert Havlin T:John & Thady Gosden	130	—	111-32	111	123	-	14d	—	—	+2	21	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Placed in Group 3/Listed since reappearing this autumn; will go well again is in same form
8 (10)	The Foxes Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	130	—	4-3095	108	119	-	35d	—	—	+5	18.5	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Smart form when third on AW in February but below par on turf since; bounce back needed
9 (2)	Tyrrhenian Sea Grey J:Jack Mitchell T:Roger Varian	J:Jack Mitchell T:Roger Varian	130	—	7021-3	108	121	52	266d	—	—	+9	20.8	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Really smart AW performer, including a Listed win; off since February but still respected
3 (3)	Daysofourlives Bay J:Luke Morris T:Marco Botti	J:Luke Morris T:Marco Botti	130	p	-32410	101	115	-	28d	—	—	+15	24.4	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Soft ground an excuse last time and very solid record in handicaps otherwise; 2-2 on AW
6 (5)	Sir Busker Bay J:Brandon Wilkie T:William Knight	J:Brandon Wilkie T:William Knight	130	p	654140	101	120	66	28d	—	—	+14	19.1	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Still smart at 8 but probably not quite so good on AW as turf
7 (1)	Swing Vote Bay J:Harry Davies T:Simon & Ed Crisford	J:Harry Davies T:Simon & Ed Crisford	130	t	1-1158	107	113	73	231d	—	—	+19	22.2	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Group 3 winner at Jebel Ali in February but twice below par at Meydan in March; off since
2 (8)	Claymore Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:Jane Chapple-Hyam	J:Daniel Muscutt T:Jane Chapple-Hyam	130	—	-64764	102	119	67	176d	—	—	+11	13.8	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Fair fourth in Winter Derby but below that level in the spring; off six months (gelded)
10 (4)	Platoon Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Stella Barclay	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Stella Barclay	127	—	13	105	109	53	50d	—	—	+22	24.3	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Third in AW Listed on second run but since allowed to leave Aidan O'Brien for 18,000gns
5 (9)	Savvy Victory Bay J:Sean Levey T:S Woods	J:Sean Levey T:S Woods	130	p	256765	100	118	76	14d	—	—	+12	12.8	25.00/1	100/1 1%
Good second in Sandown Listed race in July but below par since, including AW latest

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Dubai Honour	6/4	6/4	6/4	6/4	6/4
Peace Man	10/3	10/3	10/3	10/3	3/1
The Foxes	7/1	6/1	6/1	6/1	13/2
Tyrrhenian Sea	13/2	6/1	6/1	6/1	6/1
Daysofourlives	17/2	17/2	17/2	9/1	17/2
Sir Busker	20/1	18/1	18/1	18/1	16/1
Swing Vote	33/1	28/1	33/1	28/1	33/1
Claymore	40/1	33/1	40/1	28/1	40/1
Platoon	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1
Savvy Victory	100/1	100/1	100/1	80/1	100/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Dubai Honour

37.9

OR: 17 Form: 10.9 Odds: 10

6/4

2nd

Daysofourlives

24.4

OR: 12.8 Form: 9.1 Odds: 2.5

9/1

3rd

Platoon

24.3

OR: 13.8 Form: 10 Odds: 0.6

40/1

Swing Vote

22.2

OR: 14.3 Form: 7 Odds: 1

33/1

Peace Man

OR: 15.3 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

10/3

Tyrrhenian Sea

20.8

OR: 14.5 Form: 3 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Sir Busker

19.1

OR: 12.8 Form: 5 Odds: 1.4

20/1

The Foxes

18.5

OR: 14.5 Form: 0 Odds: 4

7/1

Claymore

13.8

OR: 13 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

40/1

Savvy Victory

12.8

OR: 12.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

100/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Dubai Honour	118	126	82
Peace Man	111	123	—
The Foxes	108	119	—
Tyrrhenian Sea	108	121	52
Swing Vote	107	113	73
Platoon	105	109	53
Claymore	102	119	67
Daysofourlives	101	115	—
Sir Busker	101	120	66
Savvy Victory	100	118	76

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Peace Man	14d ago	Fit
Savvy Victory	14d ago	Fit
Daysofourlives	28d ago	Fit
Sir Busker	28d ago	Fit
The Foxes	35d ago	Fit
Platoon	50d ago	Fresh
Dubai Honour	76d ago	Fresh
Claymore	176d ago	Long break
Swing Vote	231d ago	Long break
Tyrrhenian Sea	266d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m2f42y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.