BetMGM: It's Showtime Nursery Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

17:18

BetMGM: It's Showtime Nursery Handicap

Date 2024-11-16

Distance 6f

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £2,983

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (9)	Vault Of Heaven Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Kevin Frost	J:Jack Mitchell T:Kevin Frost	135	—	905	59	62	21	67d	—	—	-12	8.4	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Appeared to run better over 7f here in September; even more required now handicapping
4 (8)	Rock Master Bay J:Robert Havlin T:S Woods	J:Robert Havlin T:S Woods	134	—	774	58	63	33	16d	—	—	-9	6.4	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Drop to 6f should suit and he's of interest now switched to a low-grade nursery
1 (1)	Laurens Dream Bay J:Billy Garritty T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Billy Garritty T:Michael & David Easterby	141	—	584321	65	65	4	5d	—	—	+6	24.2	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Kept on well to win a slowly run 7f nursery here on Monday; more needed to defy penalty
11 (2)	A Fine Claret Bay J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	125	v	948823	49	67	48	5d	—	—	-4	10.5	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Improved efforts over 7f the last twice; stiff 6f should be OK; visor replaces cheekpieces
6 (3)	Monticristo Boy Bay J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	132	t	023241	56	69	49	15d	—	—	+8	19	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Narrow win in a 5f nursery here two weeks ago; 3lb rise doesn't look generous
9 (10)	Followeroffashion Bay J:Luke Morris T:Archie Watson	J:Luke Morris T:Archie Watson	131	—	749	55	63	53	17d	—	—	-3	2.9	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Promise at Kempton on 2nd start; looks a likely improver back sprinting in a 0-60 nursery
8 (11)	Black Sky Bay J:Sam James T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Sam James T:Michael & David Easterby	131	b	9508	55	65	-	11d	—	—	-2	2.6	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Overall profile unconvincing; drops in trip with blinkers now tried (has worn a visor)
3 (5)	King Of Lir Bay J:Jason Hart T:John & Sean Quinn	J:Jason Hart T:John & Sean Quinn	134	b	5360	58	61	16	46d	—	—	0	4.7	5.50/1	22/1 4%
No instant improvement for handicapping when 11th over C&D last month; now blinkered
12 (6)	Up The Budget Grey J:Joanna Mason T:Jack Jones	J:Joanna Mason T:Jack Jones	124	—	8490	48	64	48	16d	—	—	-2	0.9	6.25/1	25/1 4%
No improvement for switch to nurseries at Chelmsford 16 days ago; others more persuasive
10 (12)	Glad Eye Chestnut J:Sean Kirrane T:Craig Lidster	J:Sean Kirrane T:Craig Lidster	128	—	07703	52	65	45	8d	—	—	+1	4.3	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Raced freely when third of five over C&D last week; that does not appeal as strong form
7 (4)	Caledonian Dream Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Alan Brown	J:Tom Eaves T:Alan Brown	131	p	354380	55	66	-	46d	—	—	+1	3.2	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Well beaten over C&D on his stable debut last month; now goes in cheekpieces
5 (7)	Unthinkable Bay J:Brandon Wilkie(3) T:Philip Kirby	J:Brandon Wilkie(3) T:Philip Kirby	132	—	439669	56	67	23	11d	—	—	+1	2.4	20.00/1	80/1 1%
In and out for current yard; sharper for recent run & down in weights but still too risky

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Vault Of Heaven	3/1	10/3	3/1	3/1	3/1
Rock Master	5/1	5/1	5/1	5/1	5/1
Laurens Dream	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2
A Fine Claret	5/1	5/1	5/1	9/2	5/1
Monticristo Boy	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2	6/1
Followeroffashion	14/1	12/1	12/1	14/1	12/1
Black Sky	22/1	20/1	20/1	18/1	20/1
King Of Lir	22/1	20/1	22/1	20/1	20/1
Up The Budget	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1
Glad Eye	33/1	28/1	33/1	28/1	33/1
Caledonian Dream	66/1	50/1	66/1	50/1	66/1
Unthinkable	80/1	80/1	80/1	80/1	80/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Laurens Dream

24.2

OR: 3.8 Form: 15 Odds: 5.4

7/2

2nd

Monticristo Boy

OR: 1.5 Form: 14.4 Odds: 3.1

13/2

3rd

A Fine Claret

10.5

OR: 0 Form: 6.5 Odds: 4

5/1

Vault Of Heaven

8.4

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 6.2

10/3

Rock Master

6.4

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

5/1

King Of Lir

4.7

OR: 2 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1.2

22/1

Glad Eye

4.3

OR: 0.5 Form: 3 Odds: 0.8

33/1

Caledonian Dream

3.2

OR: 1.3 Form: 1.5 Odds: 0.5

66/1

Followeroffashion

2.9

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

14/1

Black Sky

2.6

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

22/1

Unthinkable

2.4

OR: 1.5 Form: 0.6 Odds: 0.3

80/1

Up The Budget

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

25/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Laurens Dream	65	65	4
Vault Of Heaven	59	62	21
Rock Master	58	63	33
King Of Lir	58	61	16
Monticristo Boy	56	69	49
Unthinkable	56	67	23
Followeroffashion	55	63	53
Black Sky	55	65	—
Caledonian Dream	55	66	—
Glad Eye	52	65	45
A Fine Claret	49	67	48
Up The Budget	48	64	48

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Laurens Dream	5d ago	Quick return
A Fine Claret	5d ago	Quick return
Glad Eye	8d ago	Quick return
Black Sky	11d ago	Quick return
Unthinkable	11d ago	Quick return
Monticristo Boy	15d ago	Fit
Rock Master	16d ago	Fit
Up The Budget	16d ago	Fit
Followeroffashion	17d ago	Fit
King Of Lir	46d ago	Fresh
Caledonian Dream	46d ago	Fresh
Vault Of Heaven	67d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.