Weekly Free Bets With BetMGM Extra Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

18:48

Weekly Free Bets With BetMGM Extra Handicap

Date 2024-11-16

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £4,972

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (11)	Master Richard Bay J:David Nolan T:Ann Duffield	J:David Nolan T:Ann Duffield	140	—	577444	82	89	73	43d	—	—	-6	13.7	0.88/1	7/2 22%
C&D winner; on a losing run but in fair form and should give his running
9 (4)	Project Geofin Brown J:Jason Hart T:Geoff Oldroyd	J:Jason Hart T:Geoff Oldroyd	131	—	-47512	74	89	67	15d	—	—	+4	23.7	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Course record reads 112; closely matched with Swiss Ace on a recent C&D run; key player
6 (7)	Enola Grey Grey J:Rowan Scott T:Gemma Tutty	J:Rowan Scott T:Gemma Tutty	135	—	005352	77	91	64	3d	—	—	+5	16.6	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Ran on well for second at Southwell on Wednesday; stronger pace would suit; contender
2 (9)	Billyb Bay J:Shane Gray T:Craig Lidster	J:Shane Gray T:Craig Lidster	140	—	7-5120	82	90	-	127d	—	—	0	11.3	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Back to form for new yard this year; absent since low-key run in July; still well treated
3 (12)	Mudamer Grey J:Sam James T:Geoffrey Harker	J:Sam James T:Geoffrey Harker	138	p	600375	80	86	57	5d	—	—	+3	11.5	2.13/1	17/2 11%
On a dangerous mark, ran okay here on Monday and the return of headgear is a plus; chance
5 (10)	Feel The Need Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	135	—	127455	77	91	-	21d	—	—	+2	10	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Effective over C&D and feasibly weighted on his spring form; yard fairly quiet this autumn
7 (6)	Modern Times Bay J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	135	t	662003	78	89	62	15d	—	—	+7	13.4	3.00/1	12/1 8%
0-9 but has shown winning potential; kept on well for 3rd over C&D this month; e-w shout
4 (5)	Swiss Ace Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Ruth Carr	J:Joanna Mason T:Ruth Carr	136	—	622774	78	92	65	15d	—	—	+5	11.1	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Should be sharper for recent return and handicapped to go well; high on the list
12 (1)	Red Maids Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Mark Rimell	J:Jack Mitchell T:Mark Rimell	125	—	885737	67	88	80	10d	—	—	+3	7.6	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Two turf wins at this trip last summer; mixed bag in 2024 and others look stronger
8 (8)	That's For Sure Bay J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	134	—	31007-	77	88	-	428d	—	—	+7	11.4	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Returns from a 428-day absence over a new trip and on a new surface; risks attached
10 (3)	Bobby Joe Leg Chestnut J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	129	—	262353	71	89	76	15d	—	—	+9	12	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Split Project Geofin and Swiss Ace here two weeks ago; could prove vulnerable again
11 (2)	Spun To Gold Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	127	—	438004	70	86	75	10d	—	—	+4	6.2	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Struggled on turf for new yard but the return to AW could spark a revival; still risky

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Master Richard	10/3	7/2	10/3	10/3	10/3
Project Geofin	10/3	7/2	10/3	10/3	3/1
Enola Grey	13/2	13/2	13/2	7/1	6/1
Billyb	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2	6/1
Mudamer	15/2	17/2	15/2	17/2	15/2
Feel The Need	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1
Modern Times	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Swiss Ace	14/1	14/1	14/1	16/1	14/1
Red Maids	20/1	20/1	18/1	18/1	18/1
That's For Sure	22/1	22/1	22/1	20/1	20/1
Bobby Joe Leg	33/1	33/1	28/1	28/1	33/1
Spun To Gold	40/1	40/1	40/1	50/1	40/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Project Geofin

23.7

OR: 6 Form: 12 Odds: 5.7

7/2

2nd

Enola Grey

16.6

OR: 6.8 Form: 6.5 Odds: 3.3

7/1

3rd

Master Richard

13.7

OR: 8 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

7/2

Modern Times

13.4

OR: 7 Form: 4.5 Odds: 1.9

12/1

Bobby Joe Leg

OR: 5.3 Form: 6 Odds: 0.7

33/1

Mudamer

11.5

OR: 7.5 Form: 1.5 Odds: 2.5

17/2

That's For Sure

11.4

OR: 6.8 Form: 3.6 Odds: 1.1

22/1

Billyb

11.3

OR: 8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Swiss Ace

11.1

OR: 7 Form: 2.5 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Feel The Need

OR: 6.8 Form: 1 Odds: 2.2

9/1

Red Maids

7.6

OR: 4.3 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Spun To Gold

6.2

OR: 5 Form: 0.6 Odds: 0.6

50/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Master Richard	82	89	73
Billyb	82	90	—
Mudamer	80	86	57
Modern Times	78	89	62
Swiss Ace	78	92	65
Enola Grey	77	91	64
Feel The Need	77	91	—
That's For Sure	77	88	—
Project Geofin	74	89	67
Bobby Joe Leg	71	89	76
Spun To Gold	70	86	75
Red Maids	67	88	80

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Enola Grey	3d ago	Quick return
Mudamer	5d ago	Quick return
Red Maids	10d ago	Quick return
Spun To Gold	10d ago	Quick return
Project Geofin	15d ago	Fit
Modern Times	15d ago	Fit
Swiss Ace	15d ago	Fit
Bobby Joe Leg	15d ago	Fit
Feel The Need	21d ago	Fit
Master Richard	43d ago	Fit
Billyb	127d ago	Long break
That's For Sure	428d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 7f14y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.