Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Nursery Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

16:55

Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Nursery Handicap

Date 2024-12-21

Distance 5f

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £2,983

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (5)	Keats House Bay J:Billy Garritty T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Billy Garritty T:Michael & David Easterby	135	p	9566	62	70	41	46d	—	—	-15	11	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Unexposed gelding who looks a possible improver with headgear added on this drop to 5f
4 (10)	Startling Bay J:David Nolan T:David O'Meara	J:David Nolan T:David O'Meara	134	—	917125	61	71	62	18d	—	—	-4	20.5	0.75/1	3/1 25%
Dual nursery winner who went close at Chelmsford on her penultimate run; key player
5 (2)	Missile Mac Bay J:Grace McEntee T:George Boughey	J:Grace McEntee T:George Boughey	130	—	48784	57	64	43	8d	—	—	-6	4.8	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Needs improvement dropped to 5f but it's still early days and she has a speedy pedigree
9 (7)	Cuban Lynx Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Michael Appleby	J:Joanna Mason T:Michael Appleby	118	v	680785	45	65	57	28d	—	—	-8	3.3	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Eight-race maiden and he needs to find more with visor added
7 (8)	Coul Harswell Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Roger Fell	J:Rowan Scott T:Roger Fell	129	—	558	56	65	-	88d	—	—	-8	5.1	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Still unexposed but he needs improvement switched to AW on nursery debut
2 (9)	Auntie Jo Grey J:Ben Robinson T:David O'Meara	J:Ben Robinson T:David O'Meara	135	—	544788	62	64	28	29d	—	—	-3	5.2	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Well held in all six runs and needs a transformation on this drop back in trip
3 (6)	Navarre Special Bay J:Alice Bond(7) T:Darryll Holland	J:Alice Bond(7) T:Darryll Holland	134	—	365	61	54	27	110d	—	—	-1	6.4	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Unexposed filly who could show more dropped to 5f on nursery/stable debut; watch market
6 (4)	What What What Bay J:Lewis Chalkley(7) T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Lewis Chalkley(7) T:Michael & David Easterby	130	—	79680	57	66	14	29d	—	—	-3	3.5	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Has struggled in his five runs and needs this drop to 5f to make a big difference
8 (1)	Maid Of Killybegs Bay J:Clifford Lee T:Charlie Johnston	J:Clifford Lee T:Charlie Johnston	123	—	709	50	62	32	35d	—	—	-3	1.2	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Well-bred filly who goes handicapping off lowly mark; needs close look on this drop to 5f
10 (3)	Keely Bay J:Alex Jary(5) T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Alex Jary(5) T:Nigel Tinkler	118	—	807	45	49	27	35d	—	—	-1	0.4	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Failed to beat a rival in her three qualifying runs, with a best RPR of 27; down the list

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Keats House	9/4	5/2	9/4
Startling	3/1	11/4	3/1
Missile Mac	15/2	17/2	15/2
Cuban Lynx	15/2	15/2	15/2
Coul Harswell	13/2	6/1	7/1
Auntie Jo	10/1	9/1	10/1
Navarre Special	12/1	12/1	14/1
What What What	16/1	16/1	14/1
Maid Of Killybegs	28/1	22/1	22/1
Keely	80/1	66/1	80/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Startling

20.5

OR: 2.8 Form: 10.5 Odds: 7.3

3/1

2nd

Keats House

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 8

5/2

3rd

Navarre Special

6.4

OR: 2.8 Form: 1.5 Odds: 2.1

14/1

Auntie Jo

5.2

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

10/1

Coul Harswell

5.1

OR: 1.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

7/1

Missile Mac

4.8

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

17/2

What What What

3.5

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

16/1

Cuban Lynx

3.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

15/2

Maid Of Killybegs

1.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

28/1

Keely

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

80/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Keats House	62	70	41
Auntie Jo	62	64	28
Startling	61	71	62
Navarre Special	61	54	27
Missile Mac	57	64	43
What What What	57	66	14
Coul Harswell	56	65	—
Maid Of Killybegs	50	62	32
Cuban Lynx	45	65	57
Keely	45	49	27

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Missile Mac	8d ago	Quick return
Startling	18d ago	Fit
Cuban Lynx	28d ago	Fit
Auntie Jo	29d ago	Fit
What What What	29d ago	Fit
Maid Of Killybegs	35d ago	Fit
Keely	35d ago	Fit
Keats House	46d ago	Fresh
Coul Harswell	88d ago	Fresh
Navarre Special	110d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 5f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.