Weekly Free Bets With BetMGM Extra Classified Stakes (Div I)

Southwell (AW)

14:22

Date 2025-01-14

Distance 1m3f23y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £3,140

Winning Time 2m 28.58s (slow by 9.68s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	High Court Judge (USA) Hector Crouch · James Owen	8/13F	Won
2nd	Rubellite (IRE) Jason Hart · Stella Barclay	15/8	3.75
3rd	Recorwoman (FR) Elle-May Croot · Ivan Furtado	16/1	2.25
4th	Desejada (GB) Kaiya Fraser · John Butler	20/1	.5
5th	Foshan (IRE) Dougie Costello · Adam Nicol	66/1	.5
6th	Break Point (GB) Joanna Mason · Derek Shaw	66/1	3.25
7th	Exceptionality (IRE) Joey Haynes · Scott Dixon	125/1	3.75
8th	Nasneen (GB) Cieren Fallon · Ian Williams	14/1	0.3
9th	Rajawail (GB) Clifford Lee · Brian Rothwell	80/1	7.5

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (2)	High Court Judge Chestnut J:Hector Crouch T:James Owen	J:Hector Crouch T:James Owen	140	—	8483-1	45	61	43	8d	—	—	-25	29	0.15/1	8/13 62%
1m4f Tapeta winner latest; capable of another bold bid dropping to classified level.
7 (4)	Rubellite Bay J:Jason Hart T:Stella Barclay	J:Jason Hart T:Stella Barclay	135	—	2344-1	50	62	50	12d	—	—	-10	18.9	0.47/1	15/8 35%
Won a classified event at Newcastle latest; a similar effort would give her strong claims.
9 (8)	Nasneen Chestnut J:Cieren Fallon T:Ian Williams	J:Cieren Fallon T:Ian Williams	133	—	35447-	45	53	48	19d	—	—	-4	2.5	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Placed over 5f and 1m on turf but unplaced in ten AW starts; plenty to prove.
3 (7)	Desejada Bay J:Kaiya Fraser(3) T:John Butler	J:Kaiya Fraser(3) T:John Butler	135	—	/0080-	48	57	43	18d	—	—	-3	1.2	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Yet to show much; now in classified; need to see more before giving serious consideration.
6 (6)	Recorwoman Bay J:Elle-May Croot(5) T:Ivan Furtado	J:Elle-May Croot(5) T:Ivan Furtado	135	t	06537-	48	55	-	78d	—	—	-2	3.8	3.50/1	14/1 7%
7f and 1m2f winner; placed once from 11 AW starts; little inspiration from any 2024 form.
4 (5)	Foshan Bay J:Dougie Costello T:Adam Nicol	J:Dougie Costello T:Adam Nicol	135	p	0/907-	41	50	26	—	—	—	-1	0.5	25.00/1	100/1 1%
0-21; returns to this code after showing little over hurdles; watch.
2 (3)	Break Point Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Derek Shaw	J:Joanna Mason T:Derek Shaw	135	v	88070-	48	53	-	25d	—	—	-2	0.7	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Showed ability at three but moderate form in six starts for this trainer; plenty to prove.
5 (9)	Rajawail Bay J:Clifford Lee T:Brian Rothwell	J:Clifford Lee T:Brian Rothwell	135	t	2/737-	44	47	-	68d	—	—	+3	3.8	50.00/1	200/1 0%
Second in a Beverley classified event at three; well beaten in all three starts in 2024.
8 (1)	Exceptionality Bay J:Joey Haynes T:Scott Dixon	J:Joey Haynes T:Scott Dixon	133	b	9678-0	40	48	32	10d	—	—	-1	0.2	50.00/1	200/1 0%
16-race maiden who has yet to finish within 6l of the winner; others preferred.

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
High Court Judge	8/13	8/13	8/13	8/13	8/13
Rubellite	15/8	15/8	15/8	15/8	15/8
Nasneen	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1	12/1
Desejada	20/1	20/1	20/1	18/1	20/1
Recorwoman	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1
Foshan	100/1	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1
Break Point	80/1	40/1	40/1	50/1	40/1
Rajawail	200/1	100/1	100/1	100/1	100/1
Exceptionality	200/1	125/1	125/1	80/1	100/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

High Court Judge

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 19

8/13

2nd

Rubellite

18.9

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 8.9

15/8

3rd

Recorwoman

3.8

OR: 0 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Rajawail

3.8

OR: 0 Form: 3.5 Odds: 0.3

200/1

Nasneen

2.5

OR: 0 Form: 0.6 Odds: 1.9

16/1

Desejada

1.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Break Point

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

80/1

Foshan

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

100/1

Exceptionality

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

200/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Rubellite	50	62	50
Desejada	48	57	43
Recorwoman	48	55	—
Break Point	48	53	—
High Court Judge	45	61	43
Nasneen	45	53	48
Rajawail	44	47	—
Foshan	41	50	26
Exceptionality	40	48	32

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
High Court Judge	8d ago	Quick return
Exceptionality	10d ago	Quick return
Rubellite	12d ago	Quick return
Desejada	18d ago	Fit
Nasneen	19d ago	Fit
Break Point	25d ago	Fit
Rajawail	68d ago	Fresh
Recorwoman	78d ago	Fresh
Foshan	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m3f23y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.