BetUK: It's Where The UK Bets Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

16:35

BetUK: It's Where The UK Bets Handicap

Date 2025-01-25

Distance 5f

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £4,972

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5 (4)	El Bufalo Chestnut J:Clifford Lee T:Dylan Cunha	J:Clifford Lee T:Dylan Cunha	133	t	6025-5	76	90	81	14d	—	—	-7	12.2	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Expensive to follow in handicaps; things may click at some point but excuses running out
2 (11)	Emperor's Son Bay J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	136	—	00/09-	79	84	58	54d	—	—	-5	12.3	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Struggled since a winning debut but latest effort more encouraging than the bare result
7 (5)	Above Bay J:Billy Loughnane T:Robert Cowell	J:Billy Loughnane T:Robert Cowell	132	tp	073-21	75	89	79	11d	—	—	-3	9.9	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Ended losing run over C&D 11 days ago; this is tougher but he was rated 100 at his peak
4 (6)	Paddy's Day Bay J:Alex Jary(5) T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Alex Jary(5) T:Nigel Tinkler	133	—	22327-	76	91	84	39d	—	—	+6	17.3	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Rare blip last month; type to bounce back quickly but usually finds one or two too strong
11 (3)	Brian The Snail Grey J:Ryan Kavanagh(5) T:Patrick Morris	J:Ryan Kavanagh(5) T:Patrick Morris	126	p	06451-	69	90	82	28d	—	—	+8	17.4	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Came from off the pace to win over C&D four weeks ago; up 4lb but not discounted
8 (9)	Winter Crown Bay J:Ryan Sexton T:Julie Camacho	J:Ryan Sexton T:Julie Camacho	130	p	22660-	73	89	-	165d	—	—	+2	10.6	2.50/1	10/1 9%
C&D winner; starts this year off a reduced mark and he's one to consider
10 (2)	Water Of Leith Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	130	—	536-12	73	89	60	11d	0W/1P 1 run	0W/1P 1 run	0	8	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Two good C&D runs this month; up in class but this should be run to suit
6 (8)	Our Absent Friends Chestnut J:Rowan Scott T:Tristan Davidson	J:Rowan Scott T:Tristan Davidson	132	p	5843-6	75	89	76	17d	0W/1P 1 run	0W/1P 1 run	+1	8.2	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Below par last time but ended 2024 with two good C&D runs; capable of bouncing back
9 (10)	Princess Karine Bay J:David Nolan T:Bryan Smart	J:David Nolan T:Bryan Smart	130	—	93040-	73	89	-	134d	—	—	+2	8.3	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Front-runner; can go well fresh and she returns on a dangerous mark; other pace in here
3 (1)	Monks Dream Bay J:James Sullivan T:Tim Easterby	J:James Sullivan T:Tim Easterby	134	—	/0050-	77	84	-	106d	—	—	+3	8.4	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Two course wins as a 2yo; struggled on turf last season; bit to prove but return to AW a +
NR (7)	Master Of My Fate Bay J:Warren Fentiman(7) T:John & Sean Quinn	J:Warren Fentiman(7) T:John & Sean Quinn	147	—	15-111	90	88	64	2d	—	—	—	10	—	—
Won 4 of his last 5; he was 5lb well in on Thursday and is 10lb higher today

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
El Bufalo	7/2	7/2	3/1	10/3	3/1
Emperor's Son	9/2	4/1	7/2	7/2	7/2
Above	11/2	13/2	6/1	13/2	13/2
Paddy's Day	7/1	8/1	15/2	8/1	15/2
Brian The Snail	8/1	9/1	9/1	9/1	10/1
Winter Crown	9/1	10/1	8/1	9/1	17/2
Water Of Leith	10/1	9/1	9/1	9/1	10/1
Our Absent Friends	14/1	12/1	11/1	11/1	12/1
Princess Karine	12/1	14/1	12/1	14/1	14/1
Monks Dream	16/1	14/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Master Of My Fate	-	-	-	-	-

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Brian The Snail

17.4

OR: 4.8 Form: 10 Odds: 2.7

10/1

2nd

Paddy's Day

17.3

OR: 6.5 Form: 7.5 Odds: 3.3

8/1

3rd

Emperor's Son

12.3

OR: 7.3 Form: 0 Odds: 5

9/2

El Bufalo

12.2

OR: 6.5 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

7/2

Winter Crown

10.6

OR: 5.8 Form: 2.5 Odds: 2.4

10/1

Master Of My Fate

OR: 10 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Above

9.9

OR: 6.3 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Monks Dream

8.4

OR: 6.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Princess Karine

8.3

OR: 5.8 Form: 0.9 Odds: 1.6

14/1

Our Absent Friends

8.2

OR: 6.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

14/1

Water Of Leith

OR: 5.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

10/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Master Of My Fate	90	88	64
Emperor's Son	79	84	58
Monks Dream	77	84	—
El Bufalo	76	90	81
Paddy's Day	76	91	84
Above	75	89	79
Our Absent Friends	75	89	76
Winter Crown	73	89	—
Water Of Leith	73	89	60
Princess Karine	73	89	—
Brian The Snail	69	90	82

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Master Of My Fate	2d ago	Quick return
Above	11d ago	Quick return
Water Of Leith	11d ago	Quick return
El Bufalo	14d ago	Fit
Our Absent Friends	17d ago	Fit
Brian The Snail	28d ago	Fit
Paddy's Day	39d ago	Fit
Emperor's Son	54d ago	Fresh
Monks Dream	106d ago	Long break
Princess Karine	134d ago	Long break
Winter Crown	165d ago	Long break

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Princess Karine	Front Runner
Brian The Snail	Hold Up

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 11 runners classified.

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 5f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.