EBF "National Hunt" Novices' Hurdle (Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Warwick

2:10

Date 2025-02-21

Distance 2m3f

Class Class 4

Going Soft

Type Hurdle

Surface Turf

Age Band 4-7yo

Prize £3,812

Runners (9)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
3	Prophesea b J:Bryan Carver T:Chris Down	J:Bryan Carver T:Chris Down	162	—	-58313	120	126	116	37d	—	—	+11	37	9/4 31%
Progressive; back down in trip but but he is a leading contender on form
1	Carismatic Soldier b J:Lewis Saunders(7) T:Olly Murphy	J:Lewis Saunders(7) T:Olly Murphy	162	—	2-21	115	127	92	47d	—	—	+5	25.9	3/1 25%
Something to learn about jumping but he rallied strongly to win at Chepstow (2m, heavy)
2	Disco Davis b J:Harry Skelton T:Dan Skelton	J:Harry Skelton T:Dan Skelton	162	—	-5FF51	114	119	89	21d	—	—	+10	31	3/1 25%
Needs better in this company but he scored easily at Lingfield (2m, heavy) and should stay
5	Bear Market b J:Nico de Boinville T:Nicky Henderson	J:Nico de Boinville T:Nicky Henderson	156	—	1-1P	-	-	-	71d	—	—	-9	13.7	3/1 25%
Won a point bumper and Aintree bumper; pulled up on yard/hurdle debut; wind op soon after
9	Tuscany b J:James Bowen T:Warren Greatrex	J:James Bowen T:Warren Greatrex	156	—	95	-	106	79	37d	—	—	-3	1	28/1 3%
Hinted at some ability on both starts but others have much more solid claims
8	Marengo Bay b J:David Bass T:Nicky Henderson	J:David Bass T:Nicky Henderson	156	—	7P	-	96	53	65d	—	—	-2	0.6	50/1 2%
Jumping mistakes featured when he was tailed off at Kempton and pulled up at Newbury
4	Absolutely Certain b J:Charlie Hammond T:Rob Summers	J:Charlie Hammond T:Rob Summers	156	—	44P	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.2	150/1 1%
Fourth in the first two of his three Irish maiden points last May-December
7	Delgany Deadline gr/ro J:Tristan Durrell(3) T:Dan Skelton	J:Tristan Durrell(3) T:Dan Skelton	156	—	06	-	76	22	27d	—	—	-1	0.2	150/1 1%
28-1 and 66-1 when soundly beaten in two 2m maidens at Uttoxeter
NR	Broxy Music b J:Sam Twiston-Davies T:Nicky Henderson	J:Sam Twiston-Davies T:Nicky Henderson	156	—	0P	-	-	-	63d	—	—	—	0	—
No claims after bumper at Sandown and maiden hurdle at Ascot; had wind surgery in between

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Prophesea	9/4	9/4	9/4	9/4	9/4
Carismatic Soldier	3/1	3/1	3/1	11/4	3/1
Disco Davis	3/1	3/1	3/1	11/4	3/1
Bear Market	11/4	3/1	11/4	5/2	5/2
Tuscany	25/1	22/1	25/1	28/1	25/1
Marengo Bay	50/1	50/1	40/1	50/1	40/1
Absolutely Certain	125/1	100/1	100/1	150/1	100/1
Delgany Deadline	150/1	125/1	125/1	150/1	125/1
Broxy Music	-	-	-	-	-

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Prophesea

OR: 17.5 Form: 11.5 Odds: 8

9/4

2nd

Disco Davis

OR: 16 Form: 8.8 Odds: 6.2

3/1

3rd

Carismatic Soldier

25.9

OR: 16.3 Form: 3.5 Odds: 6.2

3/1

Bear Market

13.7

OR: 0 Form: 7 Odds: 6.7

3/1

Tuscany

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1

28/1

Marengo Bay

0.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

50/1

Absolutely Certain

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

150/1

Delgany Deadline

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

150/1

Broxy Music

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Prophesea Top Rated	120	126	116
Carismatic Soldier	115	127	92
Disco Davis	114	119	89
Bear Market	—	—	—
Tuscany	—	106	79
Marengo Bay	—	96	53
Absolutely Certain	—	—	—
Delgany Deadline	—	76	22
Broxy Music	—	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Disco Davis	21d ago	Fit
Delgany Deadline	27d ago	Fit
Prophesea	37d ago	Fit
Tuscany	37d ago	Fit
Carismatic Soldier	47d ago	Fresh
Broxy Music	63d ago	Fresh
Marengo Bay	65d ago	Fresh
Bear Market	71d ago	Fresh
Absolutely Certain	—	—