Weekly Free Bets With BetMGM Extra Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

15:22

Weekly Free Bets With BetMGM Extra Handicap

Date 2025-03-04

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 3

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £7,956

Winning Time 1m 27.89s (slow by 4.09s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Nikovo (GB) Billy Loughnane · Michael Herrington	100/30	Won
2nd	Enola Grey (IRE) Warren Fentiman · Gemma Tutty	11/1	0.3
3rd	William Dewhirst (IRE) Paul Mulrennan · Ben Haslam	3/1	2
4th	Lady Flora (GB) Nicola Currie · Andrew Balding	20/1	1.25
5th	Lir Speciale (IRE) Cam Hardie · Brian Ellison	8/1	0.3
6th	Catch The Paddy (IRE) Oisin Orr · Patrick J McKenna	15/2	1
7th	Brewing (GB) Harry Burns · William Haggas	5/2F	2

Runners (7)

EW Terms: 2 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (7)	Brewing Bay J:Harry Burns(3) T:William Haggas	J:Harry Burns(3) T:William Haggas	135	t	643-51	95	109	89	38d	—	—	-6	18.5	0.63/1	5/2 29%
3-3 over C&D, all in small fields, and he holds leading claims again upped a fair 2lb
4 (3)	William Dewhirst Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Ben Haslam	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Ben Haslam	127	—	-11161	87	103	74	5d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	+15	35.4	0.75/1	3/1 25%
Five wins and a second from seven starts over C&D; enters calculations under a 5lb penalty
2 (6)	Nikovo Bay J:Billy Loughnane T:Michael Herrington	J:Billy Loughnane T:Michael Herrington	130	—	261-57	90	107	85	25d	1W/1P 1 run	1W/1P 1 run	-3	15.2	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Is usually dropped in and will need things to fall his way in a small field down from 1m
3 (4)	Catch The Paddy Bay J:Oisin Orr T:Patrick J McKenna	J:Oisin Orr T:Patrick J McKenna	127	—	14-733	87	106	77	11d	—	—	+1	12.6	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Lost his way for Kevin Ryan but has bounced back round Dundalk this winter; possibilities
7 (5)	Lir Speciale Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Brian Ellison	J:Cam Hardie T:Brian Ellison	116	—	76-574	76	105	95	10d	—	—	-2	9.8	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Solid Southwell debut for new yard ten days ago suggests the change of scenery has helped
5 (1)	Lady Flora Bay J:Nicola Currie T:Andrew Balding	J:Nicola Currie T:Andrew Balding	119	—	4128-2	79	105	69	20d	—	—	+7	14.4	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Solid comeback at a big price recently; likely have plenty of use made of her down in trip
6 (2)	Enola Grey Grey J:Warren Fentiman(7) T:Gemma Tutty	J:Warren Fentiman(7) T:Gemma Tutty	118	—	253330	78	108	84	10d	—	—	+8	12.9	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Closely matched with Brewing on C&D running in January but has to improve on latest run

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Brewing	5/2	9/4	5/2
William Dewhirst	3/1	3/1	3/1
Nikovo	7/2	7/2	7/2
Catch The Paddy	13/2	7/1	7/1
Lir Speciale	15/2	15/2	15/2
Lady Flora	12/1	10/1	12/1
Enola Grey	20/1	16/1	16/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

William Dewhirst

35.4

OR: 9.3 Form: 20 Odds: 6.2

3/1

2nd

Brewing

18.5

OR: 11.3 Form: 0 Odds: 7.3

5/2

3rd

Nikovo

15.2

OR: 10 Form: 0 Odds: 5.2

7/2

Lady Flora

14.4

OR: 7.3 Form: 5 Odds: 2.1

12/1

Enola Grey

12.9

OR: 7 Form: 4.5 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Catch The Paddy

12.6

OR: 9.3 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

7/1

Lir Speciale

9.8

OR: 6.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

15/2

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Brewing	95	109	89
Nikovo	90	107	85
William Dewhirst	87	103	74
Catch The Paddy	87	106	77
Lady Flora	79	105	69
Enola Grey	78	108	84
Lir Speciale	76	105	95

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
William Dewhirst	5d ago	Quick return
Lir Speciale	10d ago	Quick return
Enola Grey	10d ago	Quick return
Catch The Paddy	11d ago	Quick return
Lady Flora	20d ago	Fit
Nikovo	25d ago	Fit
Brewing	38d ago	Fit

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 7f14y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.