Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap – Wolverhampton (AW)

Wolverhampton (AW)

17:45

Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap

Date 2025-04-21

Distance 1m1f104y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £5,234

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (2)	Life On The Rocks Bay J:Oisin McSweeney(3) T:Richard Fahey	J:Oisin McSweeney(3) T:Richard Fahey	130	v	987322	55	77	43	23d	—	—	-4	17.9	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Placed in last three starts and still 11lb below his last winning mark; should go well
8 (9)	Desiderata Bay J:Robert Havlin T:Thomas Faulkner	J:Robert Havlin T:Thomas Faulkner	128	—	0-14R3	53	74	59	14d	—	—	-12	6	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Sole win came over C&D and he ran well here last time, but he has refused to race; risky
6 (6)	River Alwen Grey J:Georgia Dobie T:Craig Benton	J:Georgia Dobie T:Craig Benton	129	b	51-544	54	71	53	14d	—	—	-7	4.3	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Won at Chelmsford in November and a fair fourth over C&D a fortnight ago; frame material
1 (5)	I Can't Believe Bay J:Jordan Williams(5) T:David Evans	J:Jordan Williams(5) T:David Evans	135	v	-12437	60	77	67	20d	—	—	+1	10.8	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Did well here at the start of the year and should appreciate the return of the visor
7 (10)	Danehill Star Bay J:Jack Doughty(3) T:Tony Carroll	J:Jack Doughty(3) T:Tony Carroll	129	v	671381	54	69	61	16d	—	—	+9	18	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Has won three times this year including over C&D last time; one of the more likely winners
3 (8)	City Escape Bay J:Warren Fentiman(5) T:Mark Loughnane	J:Warren Fentiman(5) T:Mark Loughnane	132	eb	311244	57	75	58	16d	—	—	+4	11.4	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Consistent around here this year (3311244); capable of playing a part granted a solid pace
2 (11)	Strategic Fortune Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:John Butler	J:Lewis Edmunds T:John Butler	132	p	-72421	57	71	57	14d	—	—	+12	18.7	3.00/1	12/1 8%
All four AW wins have come over C&D including last time; outside stall makes things tricky
5 (1)	Star Delta Bay J:Mark Winn T:David O'Meara	J:Mark Winn T:David O'Meara	129	—	85630-	54	68	-	240d	—	—	-1	4.8	3.00/1	12/1 8%
0-5 and returns from eight months off; half-brother to two AW winners; watch market
10 (7)	Port Noir Black J:Luke Morris T:Robert Stephens	J:Luke Morris T:Robert Stephens	127	t	453733	52	74	63	14d	1W/1P 1 run	1W/1P 1 run	+2	8.4	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Six-time winner here; losing run now 12 but in the frame ten times; shouldn't be far away
9 (4)	Heretic Chestnut J:Clifford Lee T:Michael Herrington	J:Clifford Lee T:Michael Herrington	128	t	0-6346	53	70	62	13d	—	—	-4	2.5	4.00/1	16/1 6%
11lb lower than for his successful handicap debut early in 2023 but has stamina to prove
11 (3)	Tarjamah Brown J:Tyler Heard T:Alexandra Dunn	J:Tyler Heard T:Alexandra Dunn	126	—	780-79	51	66	30	16d	—	—	-1	0.6	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Made a winning debut here as a 2yo but has shown precious little since; look elsewhere

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Life On The Rocks	11/4	11/4	11/4
Desiderata	7/2	7/2	7/2
River Alwen	11/2	7/1	15/2
I Can't Believe	8/1	15/2	15/2
Danehill Star	10/1	9/1	9/1
City Escape	12/1	12/1	12/1
Strategic Fortune	12/1	12/1	12/1
Star Delta	11/1	12/1	12/1
Port Noir	14/1	12/1	12/1
Heretic	16/1	16/1	16/1
Tarjamah	80/1	66/1	50/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Strategic Fortune

18.7

OR: 1.8 Form: 15 Odds: 1.9

12/1

2nd

Danehill Star

OR: 1 Form: 14.5 Odds: 2.5

10/1

3rd

Life On The Rocks

17.9

OR: 1.3 Form: 10 Odds: 6.7

11/4

City Escape

11.4

OR: 1.8 Form: 7.5 Odds: 2.1

12/1

I Can't Believe

10.8

OR: 2.5 Form: 5.6 Odds: 2.7

8/1

Port Noir

8.4

OR: 0.5 Form: 6 Odds: 1.9

14/1

Desiderata

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 5.2

7/2

Star Delta

4.8

OR: 1 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.7

12/1

River Alwen

4.3

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

15/2

Heretic

2.5

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

16/1

Tarjamah

0.6

OR: 0.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

80/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
I Can't Believe	60	77	67
City Escape	57	75	58
Strategic Fortune	57	71	57
Life On The Rocks	55	77	43
River Alwen	54	71	53
Danehill Star	54	69	61
Star Delta	54	68	—
Desiderata	53	74	59
Heretic	53	70	62
Port Noir	52	74	63
Tarjamah	51	66	30

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Heretic	13d ago	Quick return
Desiderata	14d ago	Fit
River Alwen	14d ago	Fit
Strategic Fortune	14d ago	Fit
Port Noir	14d ago	Fit
Danehill Star	16d ago	Fit
City Escape	16d ago	Fit
Tarjamah	16d ago	Fit
I Can't Believe	20d ago	Fit
Life On The Rocks	23d ago	Fit
Star Delta	240d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Wolverhampton (AW) over 1m1f104y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Based on 8 draws with historical results at this course and distance.