Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

18:15

Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap

Date 2025-10-27

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 4

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £4,972

Winning Time 1m 28.82s (slow by 4.82s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Arctic Dawn (GB) Rob Hornby · Daniel & Claire Kubler	13/2	Won
2nd	Fire Flame (GB) Callum Rodriguez · Roger Varian	6/1	3.75
3rd	Jolly Roger (IRE) Harry Davies · Simon & Ed Crisford	9/4F	1
4th	Benacre (IRE) Joe Fanning · Charlie Johnston	8/1	0.3
5th	Candonomore (FR) David Allan · Tim Easterby	5/1	.75
6th	Heavenly Heather (GB) Tom Eaves · Tracy Waggott	33/1	.75
7th	Yaaser (IRE) Paul Mulrennan · Jim Goldie	12/1	0.1
8th	Pal Joey (GB) Rowan Scott · Ben Haslam	16/1	.75
9th	Obelix (GB) Ryan Sexton · Julie Camacho	14/1	.5
10th	Bellarchi (IRE) Oliver Stammers · Grant Tuer	18/1	2.25
11th	Estrella Divina (IRE) Edward Greatrex · Jack Channon	12/1	87

Non-Runners / Other

Status	Horse	SP
U.R.	Streak Lightning (IRE) Kaiya Fraser · Ruth Carr	100/1

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (4)	Jolly Roger Bay J:Harry Davies T:Simon & Ed Crisford	J:Harry Davies T:Simon & Ed Crisford	139	—	31-30	86	89	50	166d	—	—	-9	17	0.56/1	9/4 31%
1-4; returns from 166 days off having been gelded; worth a second look
5 (1)	Candonomore Bay J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	135	tp	450412	80	95	71	17d	—	—	+11	22.8	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Won over C&D last month and again ran well when second in a big field at York; shortlisted
3 (10)	Arctic Dawn Grey J:Rob Hornby T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	J:Rob Hornby T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	139	p	416715	84	92	64	33d	—	—	+8	21.1	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Runner-up in both starts over this trip on Tapeta elsewhere and should go well
7 (12)	Benacre Bay J:Joe Fanning T:Charlie Johnston	J:Joe Fanning T:Charlie Johnston	134	—	476123	79	93	74	18d	—	—	+11	21.8	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Made all for both wins this year including over C&D; may enjoy the run of the race here
9 (2)	Fire Flame Bay J:Callum Rodriguez T:Roger Varian	J:Callum Rodriguez T:Roger Varian	129	h	681664	76	92	58	11d	—	—	+2	12.4	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Still 4lb higher than when off the mark at Thirsk in August; needs a bit more
4 (11)	Obelix Bay J:Ryan Sexton T:Julie Camacho	J:Ryan Sexton T:Julie Camacho	137	h	010008	82	94	69	19d	—	—	+5	11.9	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Back off last winning mark and wasn't beaten far at Kempton last time; not ruled out
8 (7)	Estrella Divina Chestnut J:Edward Greatrex T:Jack Channon	J:Edward Greatrex T:Jack Channon	130	—	410	75	92	40	81d	—	—	+9	15	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Won a novice over C&D in June, but finished lame next time; remains unexposed
11 (9)	Yaaser Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	128	—	470005	73	96	77	9d	—	—	+1	7.7	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Rarely seen on AW these days; 3lb below last winning mark, but slow starts are a habit
10 (5)	Pal Joey Brown J:Rowan Scott T:Ben Haslam	J:Rowan Scott T:Ben Haslam	129	t	351858	76	91	-	17d	—	—	+6	10.9	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Out of the frame in three starts since off the mark at Haydock; AW debut
1 (3)	Bellarchi Chestnut J:Oliver Stammers T:Grant Tuer	J:Oliver Stammers T:Grant Tuer	141	—	210241	86	91	52	14d	—	—	+20	24.8	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Last three wins on turf including last time, but is 2-5 on Tapeta so makes the shortlist
6 (6)	Heavenly Heather Chestnut J:Tom Eaves T:Tracy Waggott	J:Tom Eaves T:Tracy Waggott	134	—	914338	79	90	74	10d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	+11	13.6	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Off the same mark as when a shock 200-1 winner over C&D in April, but ran poorly last time
12 (8)	Streak Lightning Chestnut J:Kaiya Fraser T:Ruth Carr	J:Kaiya Fraser T:Ruth Carr	124	p	256159	69	91	61	212d	—	—	+8	10.3	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Five wins here, but off seven months and this is a better race than he normally contests

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Jolly Roger	9/4	9/4	9/4	9/4	9/4
Candonomore	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2	6/1
Arctic Dawn	11/2	11/2	11/2	6/1	11/2
Benacre	7/1	7/1	7/1	7/1	7/1
Fire Flame	7/1	15/2	15/2	7/1	8/1
Obelix	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Estrella Divina	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Yaaser	14/1	14/1	14/1	12/1	14/1
Pal Joey	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1
Bellarchi	20/1	18/1	18/1	20/1	18/1
Heavenly Heather	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1
Streak Lightning	40/1	66/1	50/1	80/1	50/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Bellarchi

24.8

OR: 9 Form: 14.5 Odds: 1.3

20/1

2nd

Candonomore

22.8

OR: 7.5 Form: 12 Odds: 3.3

6/1

3rd

Benacre

21.8

OR: 7.3 Form: 11.5 Odds: 3.1

7/1

Arctic Dawn

21.1

OR: 8.5 Form: 9 Odds: 3.6

6/1

Jolly Roger

OR: 9 Form: 0 Odds: 8

9/4

Estrella Divina

OR: 6.3 Form: 7 Odds: 1.7

12/1

Heavenly Heather

13.6

OR: 7.3 Form: 5.6 Odds: 0.7

40/1

Fire Flame

12.4

OR: 6.5 Form: 3 Odds: 2.9

8/1

Obelix

11.9

OR: 8 Form: 2 Odds: 1.9

12/1

Pal Joey

10.9

OR: 6.5 Form: 3 Odds: 1.4

16/1

Streak Lightning

10.3

OR: 4.8 Form: 5 Odds: 0.6

80/1

Yaaser

7.7

OR: 5.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

14/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Jolly Roger	86	89	50
Bellarchi	86	91	52
Arctic Dawn	84	92	64
Obelix	82	94	69
Candonomore	80	95	71
Benacre	79	93	74
Heavenly Heather	79	90	74
Fire Flame	76	92	58
Pal Joey	76	91	—
Estrella Divina	75	92	40
Yaaser	73	96	77
Streak Lightning	69	91	61

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Yaaser	9d ago	Quick return
Heavenly Heather	10d ago	Quick return
Fire Flame	11d ago	Quick return
Bellarchi	14d ago	Fit
Candonomore	17d ago	Fit
Pal Joey	17d ago	Fit
Benacre	18d ago	Fit
Obelix	19d ago	Fit
Arctic Dawn	33d ago	Fit
Estrella Divina	81d ago	Fresh
Jolly Roger	166d ago	Long break
Streak Lightning	212d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 7f14y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.