Always Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM Nursery Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

17:10

Always Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM Nursery Handicap

Date 2025-11-24

Distance 1m5y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,245

Winning Time 1m 43.97s (slow by 7.17s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Ciao Capo (IRE) Conor Orr · Richard Fahey	2/1J	Won
2nd	Lope Harswell (GB) Mark Winn · Roger Fell	6/1	2.25
3rd	Runninman (IRE) Tom Eaves · Ann Duffield	6/1	4
4th	Mr Nippy (GB) Jason Hart · Charlie Johnston	2/1J	0.3
5th	Lope Y Linda (GB) Sean Kirrane · Tim Easterby	11/2	.75
6th	Harswell River (IRE) Cam Hardie · Roger Fell	25/1	.75
7th	Looks Likely (GB) Andrew Mullen · Hugo Palmer	80/1	0.2

Runners (7)

EW Terms: 2 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (1)	Mr Nippy Bay J:Jason Hart T:Charlie Johnston	J:Jason Hart T:Charlie Johnston	134	—	48562	54	59	29	23d	—	—	-13	14.4	0.56/1	9/4 31%
Good second over C&D earlier in the month; dangerous at this level
1 (6)	Ciao Capo Bay J:Conor Orr(3) T:Richard Fahey	J:Conor Orr(3) T:Richard Fahey	135	—	77064	55	58	34	24d	—	—	-16	8.5	0.56/1	9/4 31%
Creditable 4th upped to 1m at Southwell last month; eased in grade and commands respect
2 (7)	Runninman Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Ann Duffield	J:Tom Eaves T:Ann Duffield	134	—	9066	54	56	-	90d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	-11	6	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Hard to recommend on his form over sprint trips; up in distance and down in class today
7 (3)	Lope Harswell Bay J:Mark Winn T:Roger Fell	J:Mark Winn T:Roger Fell	126	—	077774	46	56	21	18d	—	0W/0P 1 run	-9	3.6	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Strong finish over 7f here 18 days ago; longer trip can help; not fully exposed
5 (2)	Lope Y Linda Brown J:Sean Kirrane T:Tim Easterby	J:Sean Kirrane T:Tim Easterby	129	—	68595	49	55	-	27d	—	—	-8	3.1	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Hopes rest on the step up in trip/switch to AW having a positive effect
4 (4)	Harswell River Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Roger Fell	J:Cam Hardie T:Roger Fell	133	p	235186	53	58	28	24d	—	—	+3	7.6	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Fully exposed but she has won over 1m and off today's mark; stable run two here
6 (5)	Looks Likely Chestnut J:Andrew Mullen T:Hugo Palmer	J:Andrew Mullen T:Hugo Palmer	127	p	523908	47	55	-	24d	—	—	0	2.5	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Heavy defeats on her last three starts and still to prove she needs this far

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Mr Nippy	9/4	9/4	9/4	2/1	2/1
Ciao Capo	9/4	9/4	9/4	9/4	9/4
Runninman	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Lope Harswell	6/1	6/1	6/1	6/1	5/1
Lope Y Linda	13/2	13/2	13/2	7/1	13/2
Harswell River	22/1	20/1	20/1	22/1	18/1
Looks Likely	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Mr Nippy

14.4

OR: 1 Form: 5 Odds: 8.4

9/4

2nd

Ciao Capo

8.5

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 7.3

9/4

3rd

Harswell River

7.6

OR: 0.8 Form: 5.6 Odds: 1.2

22/1

Runninman

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 5

9/2

Lope Harswell

3.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

6/1

Lope Y Linda

3.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

7/1

Looks Likely

2.5

OR: 0 Form: 1.9 Odds: 0.6

50/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Ciao Capo	55	58	34
Mr Nippy	54	59	29
Runninman	54	56	—
Harswell River	53	58	28
Lope Y Linda	49	55	—
Looks Likely	47	55	—
Lope Harswell	46	56	21

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Lope Harswell	18d ago	Fit
Mr Nippy	23d ago	Fit
Ciao Capo	24d ago	Fit
Harswell River	24d ago	Fit
Looks Likely	24d ago	Fit
Lope Y Linda	27d ago	Fit
Runninman	90d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m5y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Based on 4 draws with historical results at this course and distance.