Marsh Commercial Insurance Novices' Claiming Hurdle

Ludlow

12:50

Date 2025-12-03

Distance 1m7f169y

Class Class 4

Going Good To Soft

Type Hurdle

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £4,357

Winning Time 3m 51.95s (slow by 19.95s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	No Guarantee (GB) James Turner · Alexander Gibbons	33/1	Won
2nd	Hopeless Dancer (GB) Sam Twiston-Davies · Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies	4/11F	0.3
3rd	Miracles Do Happen (GB) Stan Sheppard · Tom Lacey	8/1	2.5
4th	Estate Planning (IRE) Ben Jones · Bernard Llewellyn	9/2	6
5th	Western Ginny (IRE) James Best · Harriet Dickin	125/1	6
6th	Barbie Girlz (IRE) Shane Quinlan · Katy Price	10/1	6.5

Runners (6)

EW Terms: 2 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1	Hopeless Dancer Bay J:Sam Twiston-Davies T:Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies	J:Sam Twiston-Davies T:Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies	164	—	3223	-	109	75	27d	—	—	-27	29.9	0.15/1	8/13 62%
Last of three on hurdle debut here (2m5f) but that still sets the standard; big player
3	Estate Planning Bay J:Ben Jones T:Bernard Llewellyn	J:Ben Jones T:Bernard Llewellyn	158	—	33-768	95	103	82	12d	—	—	-3	17.4	0.83/1	10/3 23%
0-10 over hurdles and beaten a long way in two modest handicaps since October
2	Miracles Do Happen Bay J:Stan Sheppard T:Tom Lacey	J:Stan Sheppard T:Tom Lacey	161	h	P-328	-	-	-	25d	—	—	-7	2.7	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Flopped last time but previous bumper form makes her of interest on this hurdles debut
6	Barbie Girlz Bay J:Shane Quinlan(3) T:Katy Price	J:Shane Quinlan(3) T:Katy Price	143	t	6P7/P6	72	99	49	24d	—	—	-1	8	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Has been struggling but yard has handed her a racing weight and may get involved this time
4	No Guarantee Bay J:James Turner(5) T:Alexander Gibbons	J:James Turner(5) T:Alexander Gibbons	154	tv	236389	75	96	88	17d	—	—	+6	9.1	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Two starts for this yard resulted in heavy defeats in basement handicaps last month
5	Western Ginny Bay J:James Best T:Harriet Dickin	J:James Best T:Harriet Dickin	147	—	UP	-	-	-	10d	—	—	-1	0.3	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Nothing to show for two starts; early days but not easy to recommend, even in this company

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Hopeless Dancer	8/13	8/13	8/13	4/7	8/15
Estate Planning	3/1	3/1	3/1	11/4	10/3
Miracles Do Happen	15/2	7/1	15/2	15/2	8/1
Barbie Girlz	9/1	17/2	17/2	8/1	11/1
No Guarantee	40/1	40/1	40/1	33/1	33/1
Western Ginny	150/1	125/1	125/1	66/1	100/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Hopeless Dancer

29.9

OR: 0 Form: 9.9 Odds: 20

8/13

2nd

Estate Planning

17.4

OR: 11.3 Form: 0 Odds: 6.2

10/3

3rd

No Guarantee

9.1

OR: 6.3 Form: 2.1 Odds: 0.7

40/1

Barbie Girlz

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

11/1

Miracles Do Happen

2.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

8/1

Western Ginny

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

150/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Estate Planning	95	103	82
No Guarantee	75	96	88
Barbie Girlz	72	99	49
Hopeless Dancer	—	109	75
Miracles Do Happen	—	—	—
Western Ginny	—	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Western Ginny	10d ago	Quick return
Estate Planning	12d ago	Quick return
No Guarantee	17d ago	Fit
Barbie Girlz	24d ago	Fit
Miracles Do Happen	25d ago	Fit
Hopeless Dancer	27d ago	Fit