Luke Normanton Takepayments Handicap – Doncaster

Doncaster

2:20

Luke Normanton Takepayments Handicap

Date 2023-07-07

Distance 7f213y

Class Class 5

Going Good To Firm

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £4,397

Runners 13

Runners

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
NR (3)	Premiership b NON-RUNNER · Tracy Waggott	NON-RUNNER · Tracy Waggott	125	—	50-118	53	-	-	38d	—	—	-52	20.8	—
Disappointing favourite when bidding for Class 6 hat-trick; now upped in grade
4 (9)	Ravenglass b David Nolan · Richard Fahey	David Nolan · Richard Fahey	139	v	-33052	67	79	70	10d	—	—	-1	15.8	7/2 22%
Ran well in first-time visor at Beverley last week; future mark 3lb higher; strong chance
11 (11)	Hostelry ch Alex Jary(7) · Ruth Carr	Alex Jary(7) · Ruth Carr	128	p	521323	56	77	63	7d	—	—	+3	17.9	11/2 15%
Close third in fillies' handicap over C&D last Friday; due to go up 1lb from tomorrow
10 (1)	Fariba b Daniel Muscutt · Kevin Philippart De Foy	Daniel Muscutt · Kevin Philippart De Foy	131	—	9-3053	68	78	37	9d	—	—	-3	7.6	13/2 13%
Her effort at Salisbury last week needs marking up a touch; in the mix
1 (6)	Elzaam Blue b Saffie Osborne · Jamie Osborne	Saffie Osborne · Jamie Osborne	144	—	553-71	72	76	58	142d	—	—	-2	8.6	13/2 13%
Well treated if transferring Irish AW form back to turf on debut for new yard
2 (10)	Night Arc b Thomas Greatrex · Richard Hannon	Thomas Greatrex · Richard Hannon	143	—	31-862	71	76	53	10d	—	—	-1	7.8	15/2 12%
Went very close at Newbury ten days ago; due to rise 2lb from tomorrow; major player
3 (2)	Willard Creek br Lewis Edmunds · David & Nicola Barron	Lewis Edmunds · David & Nicola Barron	140	—	18-966	68	75	55	22d	—	—	-3	7.4	15/2 12%
Has something to find on balance of handicap form
5 (7)	Absolute Dream ch Ethan Tindall(7) · Richard Fahey	Ethan Tindall(7) · Richard Fahey	137	—	0-9737	65	75	65	7d	—	—	0	5.4	16 6%
Won the Leger Legends race here last term; disappointing over C&D last week
8 (5)	Eleven Eleven b Connor Planas(5) · Jessica Macey	Connor Planas(5) · Jessica Macey	133	h	123587	61	75	48	16d	—	—	0	6.3	12 8%
Dual AW winner; ran creditably in April; not in the same form since
6 (12)	Cloch Nua b P J McDonald · Stella Barclay	P J McDonald · Stella Barclay	137	—	8-6732	65	73	41	18d	—	—	0	5.1	16 6%
0-7 on turf but posted encouraging efforts the last twice; each-way hopes
7 (8)	Simulation Theory ch Zak Wheatley(5) · Declan Carroll	Zak Wheatley(5) · Declan Carroll	136	—	134-38	64	72	53	52d	—	—	-2	5.7	14 7%
Disappointing favourite when last seen; on a workable mark if back in top form
12 (13)	Butterfly Effect gr Harry Davies(3) · George Scott	Harry Davies(3) · George Scott	126	h	-25664	63	73	48	28d	—	—	+2	5.1	25 4%
The only maiden in the field; gets a change of headgear
9 (4)	Billy Mcgarry b Jason Watson · David C Griffiths	Jason Watson · David C Griffiths	131	b	7159-4	59	72	65	13d	—	—	0	3	33 3%
Ran creditably at Redcar on reappearance but now goes up in class

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Premiership	SP	SP	SP	SP	SP
Ravenglass	4	7/2	4	4	7/2
Hostelry	5	5	9/2	5	11/2
Fariba	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2
Elzaam Blue	6	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2
Night Arc	8	8	15/2	8	8
Willard Creek	7	15/2	7	15/2	15/2
Absolute Dream	16	12	12	14	14
Eleven Eleven	12	12	12	12	12
Cloch Nua	16	14	14	14	14
Simulation Theory	14	12	17/2	12	12
Butterfly Effect	25	25	22	25	25
Billy Mcgarry	33	33	33	33	33

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Premiership

20.8

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 20

—

2nd

Hostelry

17.9

OR: 1.5 Form: 12 Odds: 4.4

11/2

3rd

Ravenglass

15.8

OR: 4.3 Form: 6.5 Odds: 5

7/2

Elzaam Blue

8.6

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

13/2

Night Arc

7.8

OR: 5.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

15/2

Fariba

7.6

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

13/2

Willard Creek

7.4

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Eleven Eleven

6.3

OR: 2.8 Form: 1.9 Odds: 1.6

Simulation Theory

5.7

OR: 3.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

Absolute Dream

5.4

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Cloch Nua

5.1

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Butterfly Effect

5.1

OR: 3.3 Form: 1 Odds: 0.9

Billy Mcgarry

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Elzaam Blue Top Rated	72	76	58
Night Arc	71	76	53
Fariba	68	78	37
Willard Creek	68	75	55
Ravenglass	67	79	70
Absolute Dream	65	75	65
Cloch Nua	65	73	41
Simulation Theory	64	72	53
Butterfly Effect	63	73	48
Eleven Eleven	61	75	48
Billy Mcgarry	59	72	65
Hostelry	56	77	63
Premiership	53	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Premiership	38d ago	Fit
Ravenglass	10d ago	Quick return
Hostelry	7d ago	Quick return
Fariba	9d ago	Quick return
Elzaam Blue	142d ago	Long break
Night Arc	10d ago	Quick return
Willard Creek	22d ago	Fit
Absolute Dream	7d ago	Quick return
Eleven Eleven	16d ago	Fit
Cloch Nua	18d ago	Fit
Simulation Theory	52d ago	Fresh
Butterfly Effect	28d ago	Fit
Billy Mcgarry	13d ago	Quick return

Going: Good To Firm

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