Dubai Duty Free Handicap – Newbury

Newbury

2:40

Dubai Duty Free Handicap

Date 2023-09-23

Distance 1m2f

Class Class 2

Going Heavy

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £38,655

Runners 8

Runners

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
4 (3)	Balance Play ch Hector Crouch · Ralph Beckett	Hector Crouch · Ralph Beckett	127	—	-23110	95	112	81	29d	—	—	+11	30.9	10/3 23%
No-show as favourite over 1m4f at York in hat-trick bid latest; plenty to like before that
5 (5)	Mustazeed br Kaiya Fraser(5) · Harry Eustace	Kaiya Fraser(5) · Harry Eustace	125	—	92-117	88	113	100	77d	—	—	-3	14.5	4 25%
Two wins from off the pace in large-field 1m2f handicaps here this spring; one run since
7 (1)	Totnes b Oisin Murphy · Andrew Balding	Oisin Murphy · Andrew Balding	122	—	143311	90	109	83	44d	—	—	+18	33.8	9/2 18%
Up another 8lb but a rising force who has to be in serious calculations in hat-trick bid
2 (2)	Gaassee b Tom Marquand · William Haggas	Tom Marquand · William Haggas	135	t	-70446	98	111	78	21d	—	—	+5	14.9	13/2 13%
Never dangerous when dropped back to 1m2f for latest outing, albeit slowly away
3 (4)	Millebosc b James Doyle · William Haggas	James Doyle · William Haggas	129	—	75-790	92	109	94	7d	—	—	+2	13.8	13/2 13%
Initial encouragement for new yard led only to backward steps on last two outings
1 (8)	Certain Lad b George Bass(3) · Jack Channon	George Bass(3) · Jack Channon	138	—	730062	101	110	106	21d	—	—	+13	20.5	10 10%
None too consistent nowadays and has not won for three years but 2nd at Sandown last time
8 (6)	Le Mans b Sam Hitchcott · Richard Hannon	Sam Hitchcott · Richard Hannon	116	—	121	84	109	82	16d	—	—	+21	29.2	11 9%
Won two of three starts, latest a 1m2f handicap; 6lb higher but surely has more to give
6 (7)	Toshizou b Callum Shepherd · Roger Fell & Sean Murray	Callum Shepherd · Roger Fell & Sean Murray	123	—	348470	86	111	92	29d	—	—	+4	10.9	12 8%
1m4f on last two starts; competitive mark if back to best 2023 form; probably acts on soft

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Balance Play	10/3	10/3	10/3	3	10/3
Mustazeed	4	4	4	4	4
Totnes	4	4	4	4	9/2
Gaassee	7	13/2	13/2	13/2	7
Millebosc	13/2	7	6	6	6
Certain Lad	10	10	9	10	9
Le Mans	11	9	10	9	10
Toshizou	12	11	11	11	11

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Totnes

33.8

OR: 10 Form: 19.4 Odds: 4.4

9/2

2nd

Balance Play

30.9

OR: 11.3 Form: 13.9 Odds: 5.7

10/3

3rd

Le Mans

29.2

OR: 8.5 Form: 18.5 Odds: 2.2

Certain Lad

20.5

OR: 12.8 Form: 5.6 Odds: 2.1

Gaassee

14.9

OR: 12 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

13/2

Mustazeed

14.5

OR: 9.5 Form: 0 Odds: 5

Millebosc

13.8

OR: 10.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Toshizou

10.9

OR: 9 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Certain Lad Top Rated	101	110	106
Gaassee	98	111	78
Balance Play	95	112	81
Millebosc	92	109	94
Totnes	90	109	83
Mustazeed	88	113	100
Toshizou	86	111	92
Le Mans	84	109	82

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Balance Play	29d ago	Fit
Mustazeed	77d ago	Fresh
Totnes	44d ago	Fit
Gaassee	21d ago	Fit
Millebosc	7d ago	Quick return
Certain Lad	21d ago	Fit
Le Mans	16d ago	Fit
Toshizou	29d ago	Fit

Going: Heavy

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