Bardykes Farm Nursery School Handicap – Hamilton

Hamilton

3:00

Bardykes Farm Nursery School Handicap

Date 2024-09-30

Distance 1m68y

Class Class 5

Going Soft

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,926

Runners 12

Runners

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
7 (5)	Bay Dream Believer b Rhys Elliott(7) · Mark Walford	Rhys Elliott(7) · Mark Walford	135	—	381132	62	73	68	8d	—	—	+6	23.1	9/2 18%
Won at Leicester/Ripon and good second in seller here latest; ought to be in the shake-up
6 (1)	Shine On Brendan b Kaiya Fraser(3) · Jim Goldie	Kaiya Fraser(3) · Jim Goldie	135	b	462445	62	73	67	8d	—	—	-8	9.5	7/2 22%
In good form until below-par fifth here latest; three-time C&D scorer can bounce back
9 (8)	Tilsitt b Daniel Tudhope · R Mike Smith	Daniel Tudhope · R Mike Smith	133	tp	383402	60	79	69	8d	—	—	-3	13.1	9/2 18%
In decent nick, runner-up here eight days ago; he can make his presence felt once more
4 (11)	Mount King ch Sean Kirrane · Tim Easterby	Sean Kirrane · Tim Easterby	135	tp	743553	62	78	60	10d	—	—	-1	10	7/1 13%
Back on track with Ayr third latest; scored twice at 1m last autumn; weighted to go well
3 (3)	Makalu b James Sullivan · Ruth Carr	James Sullivan · Ruth Carr	136	—	134228	63	74	59	19d	—	—	+3	12.5	8/1 11%
Didn't enjoy the rub of the green when eighth at Carlisle latest; likely to be in the mix
10 (4)	Volcanology b Joe Fanning · Charlie Johnston	Joe Fanning · Charlie Johnston	133	—	18-573	64	71	60	63d	—	—	-2	5.4	12/1 8%
Very good third at Ayr in July; remains with few miles on the clock so needs considering
12 (7)	Likleman b Aiden Brookes(3) · Simon West	Aiden Brookes(3) · Simon West	120	—	305717	51	72	62	11d	—	—	+2	9.4	12/1 8%
Maiden C&D win but raced freely at 1m2f when seventh at Pontefract since; not ruled out
11 (12)	Sutue Alshams b David Nolan · Iain Jardine	David Nolan · Iain Jardine	131	b	045670	58	70	72	10d	—	—	-2	3.6	14/1 7%
Yet to hit top form this term, tenth at Ayr ten days ago; he needs to take a step forward
2 (2)	Gainsbourg b Andrew Mullen · Daragh Bourke	Andrew Mullen · Daragh Bourke	140	p	808190	67	74	54	19d	—	—	+6	10.5	20/1 5%
Ended a losing run over C&D in July but has been well held on both runs since
1 (6)	Contrast ch Lewis Chalkley(7) · Michael & David Easterby	Lewis Chalkley(7) · Michael & David Easterby	140	—	20-216	67	74	57	114d	—	—	+2	5	40/1 2%
Beat only one at Beverley in July; gone well off a break before though so not discounted
8 (10)	Trais Fluors b/br Rowan Scott · Linda Perratt	Rowan Scott · Linda Perratt	133	—	685646	60	74	61	15d	—	—	+1	3	50/1 2%
Largely below par of late, beating only one at Musselburgh 15 days ago; others appeal more
NR (9)	Shahnaz b Paul Mulrennan · Daragh Bourke	Paul Mulrennan · Daragh Bourke	135	p	-51153	62	72	65	8d	—	—	—	14	—
Solid third here eight days ago; she can go well again off the same mark

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Bay Dream Believer	9/2	9/2	9/2	4/1	9/2
Shine On Brendan	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2
Tilsitt	9/2	9/2	9/2	4/1	9/2
Mount King	7/1	13/2	13/2	6/1	7/1
Makalu	7/1	15/2	15/2	8/1	15/2
Volcanology	11/1	12/1	11/1	11/1	11/1
Likleman	10/1	11/1	11/1	11/1	12/1
Sutue Alshams	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	12/1
Gainsbourg	20/1	18/1	18/1	16/1	16/1
Contrast	33/1	33/1	33/1	40/1	25/1
Trais Fluors	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1	40/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Bay Dream Believer

23.1

OR: 3 Form: 15.1 Odds: 5

9/2

2nd

Shahnaz

OR: 3 Form: 11 Odds: 0

—

3rd

Tilsitt

13.1

OR: 2.5 Form: 5.9 Odds: 4.7

9/2

Makalu

12.5

OR: 3.3 Form: 6.6 Odds: 2.7

8/1

Gainsbourg

10.5

OR: 4.3 Form: 5 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Mount King

OR: 3 Form: 3.9 Odds: 3.1

7/1

Shine On Brendan

9.5

OR: 3 Form: 1.5 Odds: 5

7/2

Likleman

9.4

OR: 0.3 Form: 7 Odds: 2.1

12/1

Volcanology

5.4

OR: 3.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

12/1

Contrast

OR: 4.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

40/1

Sutue Alshams

3.6

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

14/1

Trais Fluors

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

50/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Gainsbourg Top Rated	67	74	54
Contrast	67	74	57
Volcanology	64	71	60
Makalu	63	74	59
Bay Dream Believer	62	73	68
Shine On Brendan	62	73	67
Mount King	62	78	60
Shahnaz	62	72	65
Tilsitt	60	79	69
Trais Fluors	60	74	61
Sutue Alshams	58	70	72
Likleman	51	72	62

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Bay Dream Believer	8d ago	Quick return
Shine On Brendan	8d ago	Quick return
Tilsitt	8d ago	Quick return
Mount King	10d ago	Quick return
Makalu	19d ago	Fit
Volcanology	63d ago	Fresh
Likleman	11d ago	Quick return
Sutue Alshams	10d ago	Quick return
Gainsbourg	19d ago	Fit
Contrast	114d ago	Long break
Trais Fluors	15d ago	Fit
Shahnaz	8d ago	Quick return

Going: Soft

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