Follow @attheraces On Twitter Maiden Handicap – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

15:50

Follow @attheraces On Twitter Maiden Handicap

Date 2023-04-09

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo

Prize £3,402

Winning Time 1m 40.43s (slow by 2.23s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Na Scoitear (IRE) Rowan Scott · Phillip Makin	5/1	Won
2nd	Leap Year Lad (IRE) Shane Gray · Kevin Ryan	3/1F	.5
3rd	Blue Yonder (FR) Oisin Orr · Richard Fahey	8/1	.75
4th	Direct Hit (IRE) David Allan · Tim Easterby	5/1	1
5th	Indication Rocket (IRE) P J McDonald · Rebecca Menzies	11/2	1.25
6th	Storyinthesand (IRE) Stefano Cherchi · Marco Botti	11/1	.5
7th	Red Fort (FR) Alistair Rawlinson · Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	14/1	1.5
8th	Capofan (IRE) Connor Beasley · Michael Dods	8/1	1.75
9th	Beautiful Star (IRE) Rafael Souza · Dominic Ffrench Davis	18/1	6
10th	The Muffin Man (IRE) Lewis Edmunds · Jessica Macey	40/1	0.3
11th	Tiz Likely (IRE) Luke Morris · J S Moore	66/1	2.25

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (10)	Leap Year Lad Grey Roan J:Shane Gray T:Kevin Ryan	J:Shane Gray T:Kevin Ryan	132	p	345-42	62	77	65	38d	—	—	-11	8.7	0.50/1	3 33%
Now 0-9 but both efforts this season have been positive and his turn looks near.
9 (2)	Na Scoitear Brown J:Rowan Scott T:Phillip Makin	J:Rowan Scott T:Phillip Makin	127	—	7-6243	57	78	69	26d	—	—	-9	6.2	1.13/1	9/2 18%
The way he finished over 7f last time suggests 1m should suit; considered.
10 (8)	Indication Rocket Bay J:P J McDonald T:Rebecca Menzies	J:P J McDonald T:Rebecca Menzies	126	—	89426-	56	73	34	159d	—	—	-4	8.6	1.38/1	11/2 15%
0-6 but wasn't far away in his first two nurseries; lacks a recent run but can win races.
2 (4)	Direct Hit Brown J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	133	p	750-24	63	75	58	26d	—	—	-5	6.3	1.50/1	7 14%
Has hinted at winning potential and could have done with a truer pace last time.
6 (11)	Blue Yonder Grey J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	128	—	537-87	58	66	50	15d	—	—	-6	5.3	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Since returning from eight months off he's finished no better than 7th in two handicaps.
8 (3)	Capofan Bay J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	127	—	636-43	57	75	50	47d	—	—	-4	4.1	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Hasn't run too badly in either run this campaign without looking ahead of her mark.
1 (9)	Storyinthesand Bay J:Stefano Cherchi T:Marco Botti	J:Stefano Cherchi T:Marco Botti	135	p	3558-2	65	73	45	15d	—	—	+2	11.3	2.25/1	10 10%
No excuses from the front when second at Wolverhampton (7f) but it was a positive return.
4 (7)	Beautiful Star Bay J:Rafael Souza(7) T:Dominic Ffrench Davis	J:Rafael Souza(7) T:Dominic Ffrench Davis	131	h	448-35	61	73	62	22d	—	—	-2	4.5	3.25/1	14 7%
Has been finishing well from off the pace; could threaten if this sets up well for her.
7 (6)	Red Fort Bay J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	128	p	7509-	58	72	39	194d	—	—	-2	3.4	4.25/1	18 6%
Modest form in four runs for Richard Hannon; now gelded and tries cheekpieces.
5 (5)	The Muffin Man Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jessica Macey	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jessica Macey	131	—	305-7	61	71	-	23d	—	—	+1	3.5	8.00/1	33 3%
At 40-1 he never remotely threatened on his handicap debut at Newcastle (7f).
11 (1)	Tiz Likely Bay J:Luke Morris T:J S Moore	J:Luke Morris T:J S Moore	124	b	6045	54	70	22	30d	—	—	-1	1.6	16.25/1	66 2%
Weak 25-1 on her handicap debut at Wolverhampton (1m4f) and finished last.

Horse	bet365	Coral
Leap Year Lad	3	3
Na Scoitear	9/2	9/2
Indication Rocket	11/2	11/2
Direct Hit	7	7
Blue Yonder	15/2	7
Capofan	8	17/2
Storyinthesand	10	9
Beautiful Star	14	12
Red Fort	18	18
The Muffin Man	33	28
Tiz Likely	66	50

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Storyinthesand

11.3

OR: 3.8 Form: 5 Odds: 2.5

2nd

Leap Year Lad

8.7

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

3rd

Indication Rocket

8.6

OR: 1.5 Form: 3.5 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Direct Hit

6.3

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

Na Scoitear

6.2

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Blue Yonder

5.3

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

15/2

Beautiful Star

4.5

OR: 2.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Capofan

4.1

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

17/2

The Muffin Man

3.5

OR: 2.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

Red Fort

3.4

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Tiz Likely

1.6

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Storyinthesand	65	73	45
Direct Hit	63	75	58
Leap Year Lad	62	77	65
Beautiful Star	61	73	62
The Muffin Man	61	71	—
Blue Yonder	58	66	50
Red Fort	58	72	39
Na Scoitear	57	78	69
Capofan	57	75	50
Indication Rocket	56	73	34
Tiz Likely	54	70	22

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Blue Yonder	15d ago	Fit
Storyinthesand	15d ago	Fit
Beautiful Star	22d ago	Fit
The Muffin Man	23d ago	Fit
Na Scoitear	26d ago	Fit
Direct Hit	26d ago	Fit
Tiz Likely	30d ago	Fit
Leap Year Lad	38d ago	Fit
Capofan	47d ago	Fresh
Indication Rocket	159d ago	Long break
Red Fort	194d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.