JenningsBet In Shiremoor Hoppings Fillies' Stakes (Group 3)

Newcastle (AW)

18:35

Date 2023-06-30

Distance 1m2f42y

Class Class 1

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £34,026

Winning Time 2m 9.23s (slow by 1.73s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Al Husn (IRE) Jim Crowley · Roger Varian	3/1	Won
2nd	Nashwa (GB) Hollie Doyle · John & Thady Gosden	8/11F	.5
3rd	One For Bobby (IRE) Jason Hart · Hughie Morrison	12/1	2.75
4th	Misty Dancer (GB) Paul Mulrennan · Simon & Ed Crisford	11/1	1.5
5th	Heavenly Breath (GB) Connor Beasley · Archie Watson	80/1	0.2
6th	Star Fortress (IRE) Rossa Ryan · Ralph Beckett	11/1	0.2
7th	Belt Buckle (GB) Graham Lee · John & Thady Gosden	50/1	2.75
8th	Rousay (IRE) Ben Curtis · Richard Hannon	50/1	2.75
9th	Bright Diamond (IRE) Clifford Lee · K R Burke	16/1	.75

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (1)	Nashwa Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Hollie Doyle T:John & Thady Gosden	133	—	1124-4	113	126	-	33d	—	—	-18	33.8	0.18/1	8/11 58%
May have needed reappearance run and she won two Group 1s last year; stand-out form claims
1 (9)	Al Husn Bay J:Jim Crowley T:Roger Varian	J:Jim Crowley T:Roger Varian	133	—	111-21	103	114	-	37d	—	—	-2	19.9	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Improving 4yo who was a Listed winner at Ayr last month and is respected
3 (3)	Misty Dancer Grey Roan J:Paul Mulrennan T:Simon & Ed Crisford	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Simon & Ed Crisford	133	—	18-621	97	113	78	22d	—	—	+7	13.5	3.25/1	14 7%
Won 1m2f handicap at Chelmsford and could have more left in the tank; each-way claims
5 (4)	One For Bobby Bay J:Jason Hart T:Hughie Morrison	J:Jason Hart T:Hughie Morrison	133	—	3683-1	104	110	-	59d	—	—	+19	25.2	3.25/1	14 7%
Listed winner at Nottingham on stable debut and she has each-way claims
7 (6)	Star Fortress Grey J:Rossa Ryan T:Ralph Beckett	J:Rossa Ryan T:Ralph Beckett	133	—	21306-	94	109	-	237d	—	—	+13	17.7	3.75/1	16 6%
Listed third last July; lightly raced but improvement needed to threaten on her return
8 (8)	Bright Diamond Bay J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	121	p	133-55	101	105	70	28d	—	—	+10	13.8	5.25/1	22 5%
Bang there 2f out before fading in the Oaks; not ruled out now back down in distance
2 (5)	Belt Buckle Brown J:Graham Lee T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Graham Lee T:John & Thady Gosden	133	—	14-	87	94	-	419d	—	—	+15	16.8	12.25/1	50 2%
Promise on both starts in 2022 but returns from an absence in a hot race; it's a big ask
9 (2)	Heavenly Breath Grey J:Connor Beasley T:Archie Watson	J:Connor Beasley T:Archie Watson	121	b	12-284	100	104	-	35d	—	—	+11	13.1	16.25/1	66 2%
Fair Listed fourth at Goodwood last time but needs something extra in first-time blinkers
6 (7)	Rousay Grey Roan J:Ben Curtis T:Richard Hannon	J:Ben Curtis T:Richard Hannon	133	—	1274-4	99	113	58	19d	—	—	+11	12.7	16.25/1	66 2%
Listed winner last August but needs to come on plenty for reappearance outing

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Nashwa	8/11	8/11	8/11	8/11	8/13
Al Husn	5/2	11/4	5/2	5/2	11/4
Misty Dancer	14	11	12	12	12
One For Bobby	14	11	12	12	14
Star Fortress	16	16	16	16	16
Bright Diamond	20	18	20	20	22
Belt Buckle	50	50	50	50	50
Heavenly Breath	66	40	50	50	50
Rousay	66	50	50	50	50

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Nashwa

33.8

OR: 15.8 Form: 0 Odds: 18

8/11

2nd

One For Bobby

25.2

OR: 13.5 Form: 10 Odds: 1.7

3rd

Al Husn

19.9

OR: 13.3 Form: 0 Odds: 6.7

11/4

Star Fortress

17.7

OR: 11 Form: 5.5 Odds: 1.2

Belt Buckle

16.8

OR: 9.3 Form: 7 Odds: 0.6

Bright Diamond

13.8

OR: 12.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

Misty Dancer

13.5

OR: 11.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Heavenly Breath

13.1

OR: 12.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

Rousay

12.7

OR: 12.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Nashwa	113	126	—
One For Bobby	104	110	—
Al Husn	103	114	—
Bright Diamond	101	105	70
Heavenly Breath	100	104	—
Rousay	99	113	58
Misty Dancer	97	113	78
Star Fortress	94	109	—
Belt Buckle	87	94	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Rousay	19d ago	Fit
Misty Dancer	22d ago	Fit
Bright Diamond	28d ago	Fit
Nashwa	33d ago	Fit
Heavenly Breath	35d ago	Fit
Al Husn	37d ago	Fit
One For Bobby	59d ago	Fresh
Star Fortress	237d ago	Long break
Belt Buckle	419d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m2f42y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.