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Wolverhampton (AW)

20:30

Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap

Date 2023-07-17
Distance 6f20y
Class Class 5
Going Standard
Type Flat
Surface AW
Age Band 3yo+
Prize £5,757

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)
# Silk Horse Jockey / Trainer Wt Gear Form OR RPR TS Last Crs Dst Val Scr EW Odds
6 (8)
Sergeant Pep
Bay
J:John Fahy
T:Clive Cox
J:John Fahy
T:Clive Cox
 136 — 205844
76
83
55
 28d — — -6
11.7
1.00/1
5
20%
Won a C&D novice in December but he's not gone on from that and is now 1-8
4 (7)
Rogue De Vega
Bay
J:Clifford Lee
T:Tom Clover
J:Clifford Lee
T:Tom Clover
 136 — 212
76
79
50
 30d — — +13
24.3
1.63/1
13/2
13%
Record of 212 in novice events and is open to more progress upped to 6f on handicap debut
9 (1)
Asadjumeirah
Bay
J:Cam Hardie
T:Antony Brittain
J:Cam Hardie
T:Antony Brittain
 135 tp 454382
70
87
59
 9d — — +2
15.5
1.38/1
11/2
15%
On dangerous mark and he finished well to snatch second at Nottingham last time; respected
3 (6)
Bill Plumb
Bay
J:Billy Loughnane(3)
T:Phil Mcentee
J:Billy Loughnane(3)
T:Phil Mcentee
 137 — 33-117
72
83
70
 67d — — -5
9.5
1.38/1
11/2
15%
Had excuse in his hat-trick bid at Southwell and he still has potential; in the mix
10 (5)
Caesars Pearl
Bay
J:Ray Dawson
T:Craig Lidster
J:Ray Dawson
T:Craig Lidster
 132 — 252218
72
73
45
 23d — — +10
18.9
2.13/1
17/2
11%
Had excuses at 7f last time and she could kick on again back at this trip
11 (3)
Araifjan
Chestnut
J:Connor Planas(5)
T:Michael Herrington
J:Connor Planas(5)
T:Michael Herrington
 127 — 458326
62
85
76
 53d — — +1
10.7
1.75/1
8
13%
His losing run is up to 12 but he's run plenty of good races this year; in the mix
12 (2)
Erosion Risk
Bay
J:Darragh Keenan
T:David Evans
J:Darragh Keenan
T:David Evans
 126 — 322786
66
83
61
 14d — — -1
9.4
2.25/1
10
10%
Still a maiden after 18 starts and couldn't hang in there over 5f at Windsor two weeks ago
1 (9)
Belle Fourche
Bay
J:Richard Oliver
T:David Omeara
J:Richard Oliver
T:David Omeara
 141 tp 81387-
76
81
48
 231d — — +6
12.7
4.75/1
20
5%
33-1 win over C&D last October but well held in final two runs last year; others preferred
5 (11)
Blue Flame
Grey
J:Luke Catton(5)
T:Stuart Williams
J:Luke Catton(5)
T:Stuart Williams
 136 — 762-59
71
86
52
 33d — — +1
7
4.25/1
18
6%
All three wins have been at 7f and he's not fired in two runs for his new yard this season
7 (10)
Murbih
Bay
J:Harry Russell(3)
T:Antony Brittain
J:Harry Russell(3)
T:Antony Brittain
 136 — 202000
71
85
78
 17d — — +2
8.5
3.75/1
16
6%
Triple Tapeta winner but he's lost his way and needs a major revival
2 (12)
Mohareb
Bay
J:Frederick Larson(3)
T:Michael Appleby
J:Frederick Larson(3)
T:Michael Appleby
 140 — 68-466
75
83
36
 128d — — +2
8
3.75/1
16
6%
Has finished down the field in last ten starts and looks opposable on his return
8 (4)
Thunder Sun
Bay
J:Morgan Cole(7)
T:Derek Shaw
J:Morgan Cole(7)
T:Derek Shaw
 135 — 367/07
70
72
11
 42d — — +4
5.3
31.00/1
125
1%
Lightly raced 5yo who has struggled in his last three runs and has a lot to prove
Horse bet365 William Hill Unibet Boyle Sports Ladbrokes
Sergeant Pep
 5 4 4 4 4
Rogue De Vega
 13/2 11/2 6 6 6
Asadjumeirah
 5 5 5 9/2 11/2
Bill Plumb
 11/2 11/2 11/2 5 5
Caesars Pearl
 8 9 17/2 8 9
Araifjan
 8 8 7 7 7
Erosion Risk
 10 9 7 8 17/2
Belle Fourche
 11 20 12 16 16
Blue Flame
 11 18 12 14 16
Murbih
 16 16 14 11 16
Mohareb
 12 16 12 11 14
Thunder Sun
 125 100 66 80 80

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st Rogue De Vega
24.3
OR: 6.5 Form: 14.5 Odds: 3.3
13/2
2nd Caesars Pearl
18.9
OR: 5.5 Form: 11 Odds: 2.4
17/2
3rd Asadjumeirah
15.5
OR: 5 Form: 6.5 Odds: 4
11/2
4 Belle Fourche
12.7
OR: 6.5 Form: 4.5 Odds: 1.7
20
5 Sergeant Pep
11.7
OR: 6.5 Form: 0 Odds: 5.2
5
6 Araifjan
10.7
OR: 3 Form: 5 Odds: 2.7
8
7 Bill Plumb
9.5
OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 4
11/2
8 Erosion Risk
9.4
OR: 4 Form: 2.5 Odds: 2.9
10
9 Murbih
8.5
OR: 5.3 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1.7
16
10 Mohareb
8
OR: 6.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7
16
11 Blue Flame
7
OR: 5.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7
18
12 Thunder Sun
5.3
OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3
125

Ratings

HorseORRPRTS
Sergeant Pep
76
83
55
Rogue De Vega
76
79
50
Belle Fourche
76
81
48
Mohareb
75
83
36
Bill Plumb
72
83
70
Caesars Pearl
72
73
45
Blue Flame
71
86
52
Murbih
71
85
78
Asadjumeirah
70
87
59
Thunder Sun
70
72
11
Erosion Risk
66
83
61
Araifjan
62
85
76

Last Run

HorseLast RunStatus
Asadjumeirah 9d ago Quick return
Erosion Risk 14d ago Fit
Murbih 17d ago Fit
Caesars Pearl 23d ago Fit
Sergeant Pep 28d ago Fit
Rogue De Vega 30d ago Fit
Blue Flame 33d ago Fit
Thunder Sun 42d ago Fit
Araifjan 53d ago Fresh
Bill Plumb 67d ago Fresh
Mohareb 128d ago Long break
Belle Fourche 231d ago Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Wolverhampton (AW) over 6f20y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.