Edwards Ford, Foray Motor Group Handicap – Salisbury

Salisbury

20:23

Edwards Ford, Foray Motor Group Handicap

Date 2023-08-10

Distance 1m6f44y

Class Class 6

Going Good

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,926

Winning Time 3m 10.62s (slow by 9.82s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Manxman (IRE) Robert Havlin · Simon & Ed Crisford	10/11F	Won
2nd	Rogue Tornado (GB) Daniel Muscutt · Tom Clover	5/2	2
3rd	Nellie Moon (GB) Jim Crowley · Amanda Perrett	10/1	0.3
4th	Systemic (GB) David Probert · Gary Moore	28/1	1.75
5th	Thibault (GB) Sean Kirrane · Adam West	12/1	1.75
6th	Beat The Heat (GB) Charlie Bennett · Jim Boyle	9/1	1.25
7th	Social City (GB) William Carson · Tony Carroll	22/1	0.1
8th	Balgowan (IRE) Pat Dobbs · Milton Harris	40/1	.5
9th	Baikal (GB) Raul Da Silva · Adam West	40/1	3.75
10th	Kilcummin (IRE) Cieren Fallon · Mark Gillard	50/1	9
11th	Alghazaal (GB) Liam Keniry · Mark Usher	66/1	11

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
10	Manxman Bay J:Robert Havlin T:Simon & Ed Crisford	J:Robert Havlin T:Simon & Ed Crisford	128	v	-00131	62	70	59	7d	—	—	-12	36.4	0.23/1	10/11 52%
Wide-margin winner of both turf handicaps, at 1m3f and 2m; 4lb well in under penalty
8	Rogue Tornado Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:Tom Clover	J:Daniel Muscutt T:Tom Clover	133	—	88-921	67	64	51	38d	—	—	-15	12.7	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Improved since handicapping at about 1m4f; up 5lb for Pontefract win; should stay 1m6f
5	Nellie Moon b/br J:Jim Crowley T:Amanda Perrett	J:Jim Crowley T:Amanda Perrett	140	p	/569-7	63	63	34	21d	—	—	-4	5.9	2.75/1	12 8%
Down weights; well backed for reappearance but hampered; trip could stretch her again
9	Beat The Heat Bay J:Charlie Bennett T:Jim Boyle	J:Charlie Bennett T:Jim Boyle	133	p	0/9-82	56	73	-	52d	—	—	-5	4.2	2.25/1	10 10%
Dual hurdle winner in the autumn; rarely runs on Flat now; first turf outing for 2 years
3	Thibault Bay J:Sean Kirrane(3) T:Adam West	J:Sean Kirrane(3) T:Adam West	142	t	29-473	65	72	57	—	—	—	0	5.4	4.25/1	18 6%
Multiple wins for this yard, including over 2m on Flat; below best so far this year
6	Systemic Bay J:David Probert T:Gary Moore	J:David Probert T:Gary Moore	139	tp	53/7-0	62	65	-	28d	—	—	+1	3.9	6.00/1	25 4%
Hurdle winner in May 2022; lightly raced since; last of 10 back on Flat in July
7	Balgowan Chestnut J:Pat Dobbs T:Milton Harris	J:Pat Dobbs T:Milton Harris	136	p	645-44	59	70	66	—	—	—	0	3	8.00/1	33 3%
Maiden; turf form over 1m6f and close up on AW (2m) in May; frame chance
1	Baikal Bay J:Raul Da Silva T:Adam West	J:Raul Da Silva T:Adam West	142	t	6-0578	65	69	16	—	—	—	+2	4.3	16.25/1	66 2%
Maiden hurdle winner in May; vulnerable on Flat in 2023 and needs weight off back
4	Social City Bay J:William Carson T:Tony Carroll	J:William Carson T:Tony Carroll	141	p	342173	64	71	62	22d	—	—	+11	13.7	19.75/1	80 1%
First turf win in June (2m, good to firm); well held on good to soft after; ground query
2	Alghazaal Chestnut J:Liam Keniry T:Mark Usher	J:Liam Keniry T:Mark Usher	142	h	82/0-8	65	62	-	14d	—	—	+3	4.1	16.25/1	66 2%
Chase winner in May; lesser runs since; beaten nearly 40l back on Flat latest
11	Kilcummin Grey J:Cieren Fallon T:Mark Gillard	J:Cieren Fallon T:Mark Gillard	123	b	-05376	57	57	29	—	—	—	+1	4	8.00/1	33 3%
Signs of some Flat ability but unproven over 1m6f; well held over hurdles for new yard

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Manxman	10/11	10/11	5/6	5/6	5/6
Rogue Tornado	11/4	5/2	9/4	9/4	9/4
Nellie Moon	12	17/2	17/2	8	8
Beat The Heat	10	17/2	15/2	8	8
Thibault	18	18	16	16	16
Systemic	22	25	25	25	25
Balgowan	28	33	33	33	33
Baikal	40	66	66	66	66
Social City	28	80	66	66	66
Alghazaal	50	66	66	66	66
Kilcummin	33	33	33	33	33

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Manxman

36.4

OR: 3 Form: 17.1 Odds: 16.3

10/11

2nd

Social City

13.7

OR: 3.5 Form: 9.5 Odds: 0.7

3rd

Rogue Tornado

12.7

OR: 4.3 Form: 0 Odds: 8.4

11/4

Nellie Moon

5.9

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

Thibault

5.4

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Baikal

4.3

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

Beat The Heat

4.2

OR: 1.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

Alghazaal

4.1

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

Kilcummin

OR: 1.8 Form: 1.5 Odds: 0.7

Systemic

3.9

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Balgowan

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Rogue Tornado	67	64	51
Thibault	65	72	57
Baikal	65	69	16
Alghazaal	65	62	—
Social City	64	71	62
Nellie Moon	63	63	34
Manxman	62	70	59
Systemic	62	65	—
Balgowan	59	70	66
Kilcummin	57	57	29
Beat The Heat	56	73	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Manxman	7d ago	Quick return
Alghazaal	14d ago	Fit
Nellie Moon	21d ago	Fit
Social City	22d ago	Fit
Systemic	28d ago	Fit
Rogue Tornado	38d ago	Fit
Beat The Heat	52d ago	Fresh
Thibault	—	—
Balgowan	—	—
Baikal	—	—
Kilcummin	—	—