Betfred Play Fred's 5 Million Handicap – Epsom

Epsom

17:20

Betfred Play Fred's 5 Million Handicap

Date 2023-08-28

Distance 7f3y

Class Class 4

Going Good

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £7,731

Winning Time 1m 22.67s (slow by 1.57s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Capital Guarantee (IRE) Oisin Murphy · David O'Meara	7/4F	Won
2nd	Larado (FR) Theodore Ladd · Michael Appleby	6/1	1
3rd	La Maquina (GB) Pierre-Louis Jamin · Harry Eustace	9/1	2.25
4th	Shoot To Kill (IRE) David Egan · Robyn Brisland	7/1	1.25
5th	Desert Falcon (IRE) Hollie Doyle · Sir Mark Prescott Bt	9/4	2.25
5th	Secret Strength (IRE) Luke Catton · Jim Boyle	12/1	0
7th	La Rav (IRE) Dougie Costello · Lee Carter	40/1	12

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (8)	Capital Guarantee Chestnut J:Oisin Murphy T:David Omeara	J:Oisin Murphy T:David Omeara	135	—	3-5011	80	87	74	10d	—	—	-10	18	0.47/1	15/8 35%
2-2 for new stable and could well improve further; respected
2 (4)	Desert Falcon Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	J:Hollie Doyle T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	137	p	83-112	82	87	58	13d	—	—	-10	16	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Prescott 3yo who is still open to further progress; 2-2 on turf; major contender
NR (7)	Restrict Chestnut J:Hayley Turner T:David Simcock	J:Hayley Turner T:David Simcock	132	—	44116	77	85	-	13d	—	—	+11	21.7	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Two wins on AW in March, but well held on recent return; something to prove
1 (5)	Larado Bay J:Theodore Ladd T:Michael Appleby	J:Theodore Ladd T:Michael Appleby	139	b	547880	79	85	20	9d	—	—	-4	11.7	1.38/1	11/2 15%
2-4 at Epsom, including a win off 4lb higher on this card last year
4 (9)	La Maquina Bay J:Pierre-Louis Jamin T:Harry Eustace	J:Pierre-Louis Jamin T:Harry Eustace	135	t	5-5457	75	89	79	53d	—	—	0	8.8	1.75/1	8 13%
0-4 for new yard this season; others are more appealing
5 (6)	Shoot To Kill Bay J:David Egan T:Robyn Brisland	J:David Egan T:Robyn Brisland	135	—	655371	75	86	73	19d	—	—	+12	20.1	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Not sure to back up the form of his 40-1 win at Brighton
6 (3)	Secret Strength Bay J:Luke Catton(5) T:Jim Boyle	J:Luke Catton(5) T:Jim Boyle	134	p	441803	74	91	81	16d	—	—	+7	13.7	2.75/1	12 8%
Back up in grade; more exposed than some of these rivals
NR (2)	Amathus Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:Patrick Chamings	J:Cieren Fallon T:Patrick Chamings	129	p	-35118	69	84	68	16d	—	—	+14	18.7	3.75/1	16 6%
Form dipped sharply when bidding for a Lingfield hat-trick
9 (1)	La Rav Bay J:Dougie Costello T:Lee Carter	J:Dougie Costello T:Lee Carter	126	—	7-3665	66	77	44	46d	—	—	+2	4.9	6.00/1	25 4%
Just one success on turf since 2017; others preferred

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Capital Guarantee	2	2	2	15/8	2
Desert Falcon	9/4	9/4	5/2	9/4	9/4
Restrict	15/2	15/2	7	SP	7
Larado	11/2	11/2	9/2	11/2	11/2
La Maquina	8	8	8	8	8
Shoot To Kill	8	17/2	8	8	8
Secret Strength	12	12	12	12	12
Amathus	16	16	16	16	16
La Rav	25	25	22	22/1	25

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Restrict

21.7

OR: 6.8 Form: 12 Odds: 2.9

15/2

2nd

Shoot To Kill

20.1

OR: 6.3 Form: 11.5 Odds: 2.4

17/2

3rd

Amathus

18.7

OR: 4.8 Form: 12.6 Odds: 1.4

Capital Guarantee

OR: 7.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 8.4

15/8

Desert Falcon

OR: 8 Form: 0 Odds: 8

5/2

Secret Strength

13.7

OR: 6 Form: 6 Odds: 1.7

Larado

11.7

OR: 7.3 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

11/2

La Maquina

8.8

OR: 6.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

La Rav

4.9

OR: 4 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Desert Falcon	82	87	58
Capital Guarantee	80	87	74
Larado	79	85	20
Restrict	77	85	—
La Maquina	75	89	79
Shoot To Kill	75	86	73
Secret Strength	74	91	81
Amathus	69	84	68
La Rav	66	77	44

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Larado	9d ago	Quick return
Capital Guarantee	10d ago	Quick return
Desert Falcon	13d ago	Quick return
Restrict	13d ago	Quick return
Secret Strength	16d ago	Fit
Amathus	16d ago	Fit
Shoot To Kill	19d ago	Fit
La Rav	46d ago	Fresh
La Maquina	53d ago	Fresh