Vickers.Bet Weekly Free Bet Club Nursery Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

18:30

Vickers.Bet Weekly Free Bet Club Nursery Handicap

Date 2023-09-19

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,245

Winning Time 1m 26.86s (slow by 3.06s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Korroor (IRE) Hollie Doyle · Archie Watson	3/1F	Won
2nd	Amayretto (GB) Sean Kirrane · Tim Easterby	12/1	0.2
3rd	Arizona Desert (IRE) Owen Lewis · Dominic Ffrench Davis	14/1	0.3
4th	Socialise (IRE) Rowan Scott · Nigel Tinkler	16/1	5.5
5th	Havana Prince (GB) David Nolan · Tony Coyle	4/1	0.05
6th	Balmanzor (FR) Harry Russell · Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	15/2	3.5
7th	Likleman (GB) Joe Fanning · Charlie Johnston	10/1	.75
8th	Likeashadow (IRE) Clifford Lee · Alan Brown	11/2	2
9th	Hooray For Hazel (GB) Oisin Orr · Richard Fahey	10/1	3.75
10th	Whatwouldiknow (IRE) Alex Jary · Nigel Tinkler	14/1	1.5
11th	The Man From Loule (GB) Tom Eaves · Declan Carroll	66/1	2.5

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (8)	Korroor Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	135	—	455	60	63	37	18d	—	—	-12	8.7	0.88/1	7/2 22%
In good hands and may do better now qualified for a mark; not written off
1 (2)	Havana Prince Grey J:David Nolan T:Tony Coyle	J:David Nolan T:Tony Coyle	140	—	549881	65	66	32	8d	—	—	+1	19	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Perhaps a fortunate winner here (6f) last week but took well to the surface; likely player
7 (7)	Hooray For Hazel Bay J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	132	p	38764	57	62	25	8d	—	—	-8	6.4	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Fourth to Havana Prince here last week; should be suited by this extra furlong
10 (6)	Balmanzor Bay J:Harry Russell T:Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	J:Harry Russell T:Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	126	—	0865	51	61	24	8d	—	—	-9	3.9	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Ties in with two of these rivals on course running last week; not dismissed
8 (1)	Likeashadow Bay J:Clifford Lee T:Alan Brown	J:Clifford Lee T:Alan Brown	132	—	906	57	61	-	10d	—	—	-4	4.1	2.50/1	11 9%
Not particularly solid on turf novice form but this new scenario may help
5 (4)	Whatwouldiknow Bay J:Alex Jary(7) T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Alex Jary(7) T:Nigel Tinkler	135	—	758625	60	65	-	27d	—	—	0	8.5	2.75/1	12 8%
Ran well on penultimate turf start; dam gained only win on Tapeta; one to consider
2 (3)	Arizona Desert Chestnut J:Owen Lewis(7) T:Dominic Ffrench Davis	J:Owen Lewis(7) T:Dominic Ffrench Davis	137	t	336	62	63	21	56d	—	—	+2	8.3	2.75/1	12 8%
Open to improvement now handicapping for new yard (remains with same major owner)
6 (9)	Likleman Bay J:Joe Fanning T:Charlie Johnston	J:Joe Fanning T:Charlie Johnston	134	—	7405	59	61	-	21d	—	—	-3	4.2	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Seemed a non-stayer over 1m on nursery debut; still open to improvement in handicaps
9 (10)	Amayretto Chestnut J:Sean Kirrane T:Tim Easterby	J:Sean Kirrane T:Tim Easterby	131	—	97677	56	63	-	39d	—	—	-4	3.6	2.75/1	12 8%
Unappealing on turf form; change of surface needs to help
3 (11)	Socialise Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Rowan Scott T:Nigel Tinkler	135	—	884955	60	60	-	18d	—	—	-2	4.2	3.25/1	14 7%
0-7 in sprint races on turf; this new scenario needs to help
11 (5)	The Man From Loule Brown J:Tom Eaves T:Declan Carroll	J:Tom Eaves T:Declan Carroll	124	—	508	49	58	-	22d	—	—	-1	0.5	16.25/1	66 2%
Holds very weak claims on his turf maiden form

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Korroor	7/2	10/3	7/2	3	10/3
Havana Prince	7/2	4	9/2	4	9/2
Hooray For Hazel	11/2	11/2	6	11/2	11/2
Balmanzor	7	13/2	7	5	7
Likeashadow	10	10	11	10	11
Whatwouldiknow	12	10	10	10	10/1
Arizona Desert	12	12	12	11	11
Likleman	10	11	11	11	11/1
Amayretto	12	12	12	12	12
Socialise	14	14	12	12	12
The Man From Loule	66	66	50	66	50

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Havana Prince

OR: 3.8 Form: 10 Odds: 5.2

9/2

2nd

Korroor

8.7

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 6.2

7/2

3rd

Whatwouldiknow

8.5

OR: 2.5 Form: 3.5 Odds: 2.5

Arizona Desert

8.3

OR: 3 Form: 3.6 Odds: 1.7

Hooray For Hazel

6.4

OR: 1.8 Form: 0.6 Odds: 4

11/2

Likleman

4.2

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

11/1

Socialise

4.2

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Likeashadow

4.1

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

Balmanzor

3.9

OR: 0.3 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Amayretto

3.6

OR: 1.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

The Man From Loule

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Havana Prince	65	66	32
Arizona Desert	62	63	21
Korroor	60	63	37
Whatwouldiknow	60	65	—
Socialise	60	60	—
Likleman	59	61	—
Hooray For Hazel	57	62	25
Likeashadow	57	61	—
Amayretto	56	63	—
Balmanzor	51	61	24
The Man From Loule	49	58	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Havana Prince	8d ago	Quick return
Hooray For Hazel	8d ago	Quick return
Balmanzor	8d ago	Quick return
Likeashadow	10d ago	Quick return
Korroor	18d ago	Fit
Socialise	18d ago	Fit
Likleman	21d ago	Fit
The Man From Loule	22d ago	Fit
Whatwouldiknow	27d ago	Fit
Amayretto	39d ago	Fit
Arizona Desert	56d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 7f14y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.