Happy Retirement Paul Hanagan From Vickers.Bet Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

20:30

Happy Retirement Paul Hanagan From Vickers.Bet Handicap

Date 2023-09-19

Distance 1m5y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,245

Winning Time 1m 40.66s (slow by 3.66s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Cusack (GB) Jonny Peate · David Thompson	16/1	Won
2nd	Girl From Italy (IRE) Hollie Doyle · Mark Walford	14/1	1
3rd	Ibiza Rocks (GB) Harry Russell · Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	11/2	1.25
4th	Pop Favorite (GB) Elisha Whittington · Scott Dixon	16/1	2.75
5th	Atlantic Heart (IRE) David Nolan · Paul Midgley	9/1	.75
6th	Masham Moor (GB) Paula Muir · Chris Fairhurst	9/2F	0.3
7th	Spirit Of Bowland (GB) Christian Howarth · Stella Barclay	7/1	1.75
8th	Martin's Brig (IRE) Sean Kirrane · David Thompson	16/1	4
9th	Explorers Way (IRE) Ben Robinson · Brian Ellison	5/1	1
10th	Mr Strutter (IRE) Andrew Elliott · David Thompson	7/1	2.25
11th	Absolute Dream (IRE) Connor Murtagh · Richard Fahey	14/1	.5
12th	Stormy Denise (GB) Saffie Osborne · James Ferguson	16/1	1.25
13th	Red Shield (IRE) Billy Garritty · Stuart Coltherd	80/1	77

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
9 (8)	Masham Moor Bay J:Paula Muir(3) T:Chris Fairhurst	J:Paula Muir(3) T:Chris Fairhurst	133	—	224382	53	67	53	35d	—	0W/0P 1 run	-3	12.7	1.38/1	11/2 15%
C&D winner who has made the frame in last seven starts on Tapeta; unlikely to be far away
4 (3)	Spirit Of Bowland Bay J:Christian Howarth(5) T:Stella Barclay	J:Christian Howarth(5) T:Stella Barclay	139	—	0-4111	59	71	53	140d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/1P 2 runs	-6	5.6	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Bids for a Tapeta four-timer from 7lb higher after 140 days off; has fitness to prove
11 (7)	Explorers Way Chestnut J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	132	p	895961	52	71	46	11d	—	—	+2	13.8	1.50/1	7 14%
17th-time lucky over C&D 11 days ago; should make an impact if building on that
1 (4)	Ibiza Rocks Grey J:Harry Russell T:Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	J:Harry Russell T:Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	140	tb	500056	60	64	48	22d	—	—	-6	5.8	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Losing run up to 16 and stamina to prove; blinkers/tongue-tie on
8 (6)	Mr Strutter Chestnut J:Andrew Elliott T:David Thompson	J:Andrew Elliott T:David Thompson	135	—	751262	55	73	45	11d	—	—	+4	14.6	2.13/1	17/2 11%
One win and two runner-up finishes in his last three starts over C&D; thereabouts again
5 (2)	Atlantic Heart Bay J:David Nolan T:Paul Midgley	J:David Nolan T:Paul Midgley	138	—	859307	58	67	36	21d	—	—	-4	6.4	2.25/1	9/1 10%
4lb below sole winning mark and ran well here last month but still has stamina to prove
12 (5)	Rockin Rosa Chestnut J:Joanna Mason T:Ruth Carr	J:Joanna Mason T:Ruth Carr	131	p	553219	55	65	52	11d	—	—	+6	14	2.25/1	10 10%
Won over 7f here last month but not so good next time; still to prove she wants this far
3 (10)	Absolute Dream Chestnut J:Connor Murtagh T:Richard Fahey	J:Connor Murtagh T:Richard Fahey	139	—	378071	59	73	28	14d	—	—	+6	14.5	3.25/1	14 7%
2lb higher than when winning at Hamilton last time and remains well treated on old form
14 (12)	Girl From Italy Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Mark Walford	J:Hollie Doyle T:Mark Walford	126	—	425403	50	66	37	22d	—	—	0	5.4	3.75/1	16 6%
0-9, but went close at Beverley in June and a close third at Southwell last month
6 (9)	Martins Brig Bay J:Sean Kirrane T:David Thompson	J:Sean Kirrane T:David Thompson	136	b	245288	56	71	-	33d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	0	5.4	4.25/1	18 6%
Dual winner over 7f at Southwell and does stay this far but below form the last twice
7 (11)	Stormy Denise Chestnut J:Saffie Osborne T:James Ferguson	J:Saffie Osborne T:James Ferguson	136	b	5370	60	63	37	36d	—	—	0	5.4	3.75/1	16 6%
Two heavy defeats since a promising third at Southwell; blinkers on
10 (1)	Pop Favorite Bay J:Elisha Whittington(5) T:Scott Dixon	J:Elisha Whittington(5) T:Scott Dixon	132	b	186318	52	70	43	23d	—	0W/0P 1 run	+5	10.4	4.75/1	20 5%
Last three wins have come over C&D, the latest last month; frame material at least
2 (14)	Cusack Bay J:Jonny Peate(3) T:David Thompson	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:David Thompson	140	p	165837	60	67	37	73d	—	—	+2	5.7	6.00/1	25 4%
Last two wins have come over 1m2f here, though ran well over C&D in June; each-way claims
13 (13)	Red Shield Bay J:Billy Garritty T:Stuart Coltherd	J:Billy Garritty T:Stuart Coltherd	128	t	049870	52	62	-	38d	—	—	-1	0.9	16.25/1	66 2%
Not finished within 11l of the winner in seven starts; tongue-tie on

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Masham Moor	6	5	11/2	5/1	5
Spirit Of Bowland	11/2	6	13/2	6	6
Explorers Way	7	6	6	6	6
Ibiza Rocks	13/2	6	13/2	6	6
Mr Strutter	17/2	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Atlantic Heart	8	17/2	17/2	9/1	9
Rockin Rosa	10	10	10	10	10
Absolute Dream	14	12	11	12/1	12
Girl From Italy	16	16	14	16	16
Martins Brig	18	16	14	16	16
Stormy Denise	16	16	14	16	16
Pop Favorite	20	18	16	18/1	18/1
Cusack	25	20	20	20	20
Red Shield	66	50	50	50	50

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Mr Strutter

14.6

OR: 1.3 Form: 10.5 Odds: 2.9

17/2

2nd

Absolute Dream

14.5

OR: 2.3 Form: 10 Odds: 2.2

3rd

Rockin Rosa

OR: 1.3 Form: 10.4 Odds: 2.4

Explorers Way

13.8

OR: 0.5 Form: 10 Odds: 3.3

Masham Moor

12.7

OR: 0.8 Form: 7.5 Odds: 4.4

11/2

Pop Favorite

10.4

OR: 0.5 Form: 8.5 Odds: 1.4

Atlantic Heart

6.4

OR: 2 Form: 1.5 Odds: 2.9

9/1

Ibiza Rocks

5.8

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Cusack

5.7

OR: 2.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.1

Spirit Of Bowland

5.6

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Girl From Italy

5.4

OR: 0 Form: 4 Odds: 1.4

Martins Brig

5.4

OR: 1.5 Form: 2.5 Odds: 1.4

Stormy Denise

5.4

OR: 2.5 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1.4

Red Shield

0.9

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Ibiza Rocks	60	64	48
Stormy Denise	60	63	37
Cusack	60	67	37
Spirit Of Bowland	59	71	53
Absolute Dream	59	73	28
Atlantic Heart	58	67	36
Martins Brig	56	71	—
Mr Strutter	55	73	45
Rockin Rosa	55	65	52
Masham Moor	53	67	53
Explorers Way	52	71	46
Pop Favorite	52	70	43
Red Shield	52	62	—
Girl From Italy	50	66	37

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Explorers Way	11d ago	Quick return
Mr Strutter	11d ago	Quick return
Rockin Rosa	11d ago	Quick return
Absolute Dream	14d ago	Fit
Atlantic Heart	21d ago	Fit
Ibiza Rocks	22d ago	Fit
Girl From Italy	22d ago	Fit
Pop Favorite	23d ago	Fit
Martins Brig	33d ago	Fit
Masham Moor	35d ago	Fit
Stormy Denise	36d ago	Fit
Red Shield	38d ago	Fit
Cusack	73d ago	Fresh
Spirit Of Bowland	140d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m5y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Based on 4 draws with historical results at this course and distance.