Quaff Box Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

17:45

Quaff Box Handicap

Date 2023-10-06

Distance 1m5y

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £5,129

Winning Time 1m 38.60s (slow by 1.60s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Panning For Gold (IRE) Cieren Fallon · David Simcock	5/1	Won
2nd	Tajawal (IRE) Jack Mitchell · Simon & Ed Crisford	9/4F	0.3
3rd	Cusack (GB) Cam Hardie · David Thompson	11/1	2
4th	Archduke Ferdinand (IRE) Dale Swift · Seb Spencer	22/1	1.75
5th	Siam Fox (IRE) J F Egan · Kevin Frost	22/1	1.5
6th	Starshiba (GB) Ben Robinson · David O'Meara	7/1	2
7th	Whitefeathersfall (IRE) Joe Fanning · Charlie Johnston	11/1	2.25
8th	Spirit Genie (IRE) Lewis Edmunds · Jennie Candlish	40/1	0.1
9th	Colourful Dream (GB) Hollie Doyle · Archie Watson	14/1	2.75
10th	Miami Thunder (GB) Ben Curtis · Darryll Holland	9/2	.75
11th	Oh So Charming (GB) Sam James · Grant Tuer	14/1	10

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5 (1)	Tajawal Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Simon & Ed Crisford	J:Jack Mitchell T:Simon & Ed Crisford	138	—	-33173	86	95	55	69d	—	—	0	26.5	0.25/1	2 50%
Close third behind Starshiba and Miami Thunder over C&D ten weeks ago; gelded since
11 (11)	Panning For Gold Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:David Simcock	J:Cieren Fallon T:David Simcock	129	—	911141	77	92	82	47d	—	—	+14	32	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Scored comfortably at Southwell last time, taking record in handicaps to 4-6; progressive
2 (2)	Miami Thunder Bay J:Ben Curtis T:Darryll Holland	J:Ben Curtis T:Darryll Holland	139	—	050120	87	91	56	36d	—	—	+7	22.2	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Improved form over C&D on first two starts for current yard; below par over 1m2f since
NR (12)	Theme Park Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Rowan Scott T:Nigel Tinkler	138	—	236726	86	90	53	2d	—	—	0	18.3	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Only sixth at Kempton on Wednesday but has good claims on his York effort last month
3 (6)	Starshiba Bay J:Ben Robinson T:David Omeara	J:Ben Robinson T:David Omeara	138	v	03F197	83	94	64	27d	—	—	+6	16.3	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Successful in his last two visits to Newcastle (March/July); not dismissed
1 (5)	Colourful Dream Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	140	—	9/31-	85	89	-	582d	—	—	+3	10.9	2.50/1	11 9%
Scored easily at Southwell on final start for Charlie Appleby; absent for 19 months since
7 (7)	Siam Fox Bay J:J F Egan T:Kevin Frost	J:J F Egan T:Kevin Frost	136	—	178547	81	91	39	28d	—	—	+4	9.4	3.75/1	16 6%
Has lacked consistency since making all at Yarmouth in May
12 (10)	Cusack Bay J:Cam Hardie T:David Thompson	J:Cam Hardie T:David Thompson	121	p	583714	66	89	56	7d	—	—	+7	13.6	3.25/1	14 7%
In good form and suited by Newcastle but has something to prove in this grade
9 (3)	Whitefeathersfall Chestnut J:Joe Fanning T:Charlie Johnston	J:Joe Fanning T:Charlie Johnston	131	—	944-87	76	87	-	44d	—	—	+3	7.7	5.25/1	22 5%
Hasn't progressed from his turf win in summer 2022; now switches to AW
8 (8)	Archduke Ferdinand Grey J:Dale Swift T:Seb Spencer	J:Dale Swift T:Seb Spencer	133	—	713018	78	93	-	27d	—	—	+15	17.8	6.75/1	28 4%
Won twice on turf this summer but inconsistent otherwise this year
6 (4)	Spirit Genie Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jennie Candlish	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jennie Candlish	137	—	127-68	85	84	-	138d	—	—	+6	9.7	6.00/1	25 4%
Sold for 8,000gns and gelded since last Irish run; market can guide
10 (9)	Oh So Charming Bay J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	129	—	31-367	77	91	76	88d	—	—	+5	7.5	8.25/1	33/1 3%
May be capable of progress back down in trip; solid promise over 1m at novice level

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Tajawal	2	2	2	2	2
Panning For Gold	4	4	10/3	4	7/2
Miami Thunder	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	5
Theme Park	7	6	6	13/2	SP
Starshiba	8	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Colourful Dream	11	11	9/1	11	11
Siam Fox	16	14	12	14	14
Cusack	14	12	12	12	14
Whitefeathersfall	22	20	16	20	20
Archduke Ferdinand	28	25	22	25	25
Spirit Genie	25	25	25	25	22
Oh So Charming	33	28	25	33/1	33

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Panning For Gold

OR: 6.8 Form: 20 Odds: 5.2

7/2

2nd

Tajawal

26.5

OR: 9 Form: 9.5 Odds: 8

3rd

Miami Thunder

22.2

OR: 9.3 Form: 8.5 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Theme Park

18.3

OR: 9 Form: 4.1 Odds: 5.2

13/2

Archduke Ferdinand

17.8

OR: 7 Form: 9.9 Odds: 0.9

Starshiba

16.3

OR: 8.3 Form: 5.2 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Cusack

13.6

OR: 4 Form: 7.9 Odds: 1.7

Colourful Dream

10.9

OR: 8.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

Spirit Genie

9.7

OR: 8.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1

Siam Fox

9.4

OR: 7.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Whitefeathersfall

7.7

OR: 6.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

Oh So Charming

7.5

OR: 6.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

33/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Miami Thunder	87	91	56
Tajawal	86	95	55
Theme Park	86	90	53
Colourful Dream	85	89	—
Spirit Genie	85	84	—
Starshiba	83	94	64
Siam Fox	81	91	39
Archduke Ferdinand	78	93	—
Panning For Gold	77	92	82
Oh So Charming	77	91	76
Whitefeathersfall	76	87	—
Cusack	66	89	56

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Theme Park	2d ago	Quick return
Cusack	7d ago	Quick return
Starshiba	27d ago	Fit
Archduke Ferdinand	27d ago	Fit
Siam Fox	28d ago	Fit
Miami Thunder	36d ago	Fit
Whitefeathersfall	44d ago	Fit
Panning For Gold	47d ago	Fresh
Tajawal	69d ago	Fresh
Oh So Charming	88d ago	Fresh
Spirit Genie	138d ago	Long break
Colourful Dream	582d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m5y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 4 draws with historical results at this course and distance.