Quinnbet Novice Stakes (GBB Race) – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

19:15

Quinnbet Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Date 2023-10-06

Distance 1m5y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £4,104

Winning Time 1m 42.51s (slow by 5.51s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Soowaih (IRE) Cameron Noble · Roger Varian	8/1	Won
2nd	Leading Lion (IRE) Cieren Fallon · John & Thady Gosden	5/1	.5
3rd	Daydream Express (GB) Kieran O'Neill · John & Thady Gosden	7/1	1.75
4th	Calypso (IRE) P J McDonald · James Ferguson	13/2	1
5th	Carbis Bay (GB) Ben Curtis · Marco Botti	3/1	1.25
6th	Beyond Words (IRE) Hollie Doyle · James Tate	15/8F	.5
7th	Notability (IRE) Lewis Edmunds · Jennie Candlish	80/1	2
8th	Pachelbel (IRE) Darragh Keenan · Conrad Allen	125/1	23

Runners (8)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6 (8)	Beyond Words Grey J:Hollie Doyle T:James Tate	J:Hollie Doyle T:James Tate	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-22	10	0.47/1	15/8 35%
Frankel half-sister to a Group 2 winner and an AW scorer; respected debutante
2 (3)	Carbis Bay Bay J:Ben Curtis T:Marco Botti	J:Ben Curtis T:Marco Botti	133	t	29266	78	89	71	37d	—	—	-3	16.2	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Solid second in both runs at Newcastle; holds leading form claims back here
3 (2)	Leading Lion Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Cieren Fallon T:John & Thady Gosden	133	—	7	-	66	21	134d	—	—	-10	4	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Gelded since modest debut in the spring; may do better
1 (7)	Calypso Bay J:P J McDonald T:James Ferguson	J:P J McDonald T:James Ferguson	133	tb	332375	73	88	59	18d	—	—	0	13	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Form dipped the last twice but he's one of the main players on peak figures
7 (6)	Daydream Express Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Kieran O'Neill T:John & Thady Gosden	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-7	2.7	2.13/1	17/2 11%
300,000gns yearling; by Kingman; yard also runs Leading Lion; market instructive on debut
5 (4)	Soowaih Bay J:Cameron Noble T:Roger Varian	J:Cameron Noble T:Roger Varian	133	—	55	-	76	-	108d	—	—	-6	2.5	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Had wind surgery since last turf run; bred to handle AW; remains open to progress
4 (5)	Notability Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jennie Candlish	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jennie Candlish	133	—	37	-	81	42	8d	—	—	0	2.8	24.75/1	100 1%
Down the field at Southwell last week on British debut; others preferred
8 (1)	Pachelbel Bay J:Darragh Keenan T:Conrad Allen	J:Darragh Keenan T:Conrad Allen	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.4	37.25/1	150 1%
35,000gns yearling; by Ribchester; likely best watched on debut

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Beyond Words	6/4	7/4	15/8	7/4	7/4
Carbis Bay	7/2	10/3	10/3	10/3	10/3
Leading Lion	11/2	5	5	5	5
Calypso	13/2	6	11/2	6	6
Daydream Express	17/2	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Soowaih	9	8	17/2	17/2	8
Notability	100	66	66	80	66
Pachelbel	150	100	100	100	100

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Carbis Bay

16.2

OR: 7 Form: 3.5 Odds: 5.7

7/2

2nd

Calypso

OR: 5.8 Form: 3.6 Odds: 3.6

13/2

3rd

Beyond Words

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 10

15/8

Leading Lion

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 4

11/2

Notability

2.8

OR: 0 Form: 2.1 Odds: 0.7

100

Daydream Express

2.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

17/2

Soowaih

2.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

17/2

Pachelbel

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

150

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Carbis Bay	78	89	71
Calypso	73	88	59
Beyond Words	—	—	—
Leading Lion	—	66	21
Daydream Express	—	—	—
Soowaih	—	76	—
Notability	—	81	42
Pachelbel	—	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Notability	8d ago	Quick return
Calypso	18d ago	Fit
Carbis Bay	37d ago	Fit
Soowaih	108d ago	Long break
Leading Lion	134d ago	Long break
Beyond Words	—	—
Daydream Express	—	—
Pachelbel	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m5y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Based on 4 draws with historical results at this course and distance.