Oktoberfest Weekend Handicap – Naas

Naas

16:35

Oktoberfest Weekend Handicap

Date 2023-10-14

Distance 7f

Class

Going Soft To Heavy

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize €12,390

Winning Time 1m 33.21s (slow by 10.21s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Facethepuckout (IRE) Leigh Roche · M D O'Callaghan	7/1	Won
2nd	No More Porter (IRE) Ronan Whelan · Adrian McGuinness	5/1	2.75
3rd	San Aer (IRE) Jamie Powell · Thomas Mullins	15/2	.5
4th	Joe Masseria (IRE) Robert Whearty · Noel Meade	7/1	1
5th	Verhoyen (GB) W J Lee · M C Grassick	33/1	.5
6th	Hurricane Ivor (IRE) Keithen Kennedy · Mrs John Harrington	18/1	0.2
7th	Earls (IRE) Gary Carroll · Gavin Cromwell	8/1	2
8th	Lust (IRE) Colin Keane · G M Lyons	18/1	.75
9th	Cavallo Pazzo (IRE) Conor Stone-Walsh · Joseph Patrick O'Brien	4/1F	0.1
10th	Spanish Tenor (IRE) Cian MacRedmond · Adrian McGuinness	14/1	2.5
11th	Something Nice (IRE) Wesley Joyce · Michael Mulvany	9/2	17

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
10 (7)	No More Porter Bay J:Ronan Whelan T:Adrian Mcguinness	J:Ronan Whelan T:Adrian Mcguinness	127	t	268432	83	105	95	14d	—	—	+3	20.4	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Bumped into an improved rival last time at Killarney; should be on the premises again
8 (4)	Something Nice Bay J:Wesley Joyce(7) T:Michael Mulvany	J:Wesley Joyce(7) T:Michael Mulvany	130	—	129254	88	108	84	18d	—	—	+5	16.3	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Was just reeled in over 1m at Cork last time; handles the ground and track; decent shout
9 (10)	Cavallo Pazzo Bay J:Conor Stone-Walsh(7) T:Joseph Patrick Obrien	J:Conor Stone-Walsh(7) T:Joseph Patrick Obrien	127	t	-82021	83	97	82	19d	—	—	+13	27.3	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Won a Down Royal handicap over this trip last time despite a slipped saddle; up 11lb
12 (3)	San Aer Bay J:Jamie Powell(5) T:Thomas Mullins	J:Jamie Powell(5) T:Thomas Mullins	119	h	007036	75	106	94	14d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	+1	11	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Was 3rd at Galway last month but poor either side of that and needs best form
7 (9)	Joe Masseria Bay J:Robert Whearty(5) T:Noel Meade	J:Robert Whearty(5) T:Noel Meade	130	b	013500	86	106	94	49d	—	—	+6	14.1	2.25/1	10 10%
Well below his best on last two starts but handles this ground well and looks a player
11 (6)	Facethepuckout Bay J:Leigh Roche T:M D Ocallaghan	J:Leigh Roche T:M D Ocallaghan	119	—	733204	75	107	93	32d	—	—	+3	13.1	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Several solid runs in defeat, including at Galway last time; should be involved
1 (11)	Lust Bay J:Colin Keane T:G M Lyons	J:Colin Keane T:G M Lyons	140	t	10-727	96	107	65	25d	—	—	+7	13.4	2.50/1	11 9%
C&D Listed winner in 2022; below his best at Listowel last time and has to rebound
3 (12)	Spanish Tenor Chestnut J:Cian MacRedmond(5) T:Adrian Mcguinness	J:Cian MacRedmond(5) T:Adrian Mcguinness	134	—	984211	90	104	84	25d	—	—	+25	31.4	2.50/1	11 9%
Won at Gowran and Listowel latest; up 5lb but very much respected on ground he handles
6 (1)	Earls Bay J:Gary Carroll T:Gavin Cromwell	J:Gary Carroll T:Gavin Cromwell	130	t	710348	86	106	90	25d	—	—	+5	15.6	1.50/1	7 14%
Some decent runs in defeat lately and is now only 1lb higher than for last win; chance
5 (2)	Hurricane Ivor Bay J:Keithen Kennedy(10) T:Mrs John Harrington	J:Keithen Kennedy(10) T:Mrs John Harrington	133	—	300870	89	107	86	28d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	+7	11	4.25/1	18 6%
Lost his form lately and is now 7lb lower than for last win but needs a revival
2 (5)	Verhoyen Bay J:W J Lee T:M C Grassick	J:W J Lee T:M C Grassick	136	b	161852	92	105	95	10d	—	—	+15	19.7	4.75/1	20 5%
All turf wins at Curragh but a fine run at Navan last time; a repeat will see him involved
NR (8)	Yermanthere Chestnut J:TBC T:Andrew Kinirons	J: T:Andrew Kinirons	134	—	9-8138	90	107	82	13d	—	—	-1	14.3	12.25/1	50 2%
Well below form in a Tipperary Listed race last time and needs to rebound

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
No More Porter	9/2	4	7/2	4	4
Something Nice	6	6	11/2	6	6
Cavallo Pazzo	5	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
San Aer	9	17/2	15/2	9	9
Joe Masseria	10	10	17/2	10	10
Facethepuckout	8	15/2	13/2	15/2	8
Lust	11	11	11	11	11
Spanish Tenor	10	11	11	11	11
Earls	6	7	7	7	7
Hurricane Ivor	18	18	18	18	18
Verhoyen	20	20	20	20	20
Yermanthere	20	50	40	50	50

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Spanish Tenor

31.4

OR: 10 Form: 19.5 Odds: 1.9

2nd

Cavallo Pazzo

27.3

OR: 8.3 Form: 15 Odds: 4

9/2

3rd

No More Porter

20.4

OR: 8.3 Form: 7.1 Odds: 5

9/2

Verhoyen

19.7

OR: 10.5 Form: 8 Odds: 1.2

Something Nice

16.3

OR: 9.5 Form: 3.5 Odds: 3.3

11/2

Earls

15.6

OR: 9 Form: 3.5 Odds: 3.1

Yermanthere

14.3

OR: 10 Form: 0 Odds: 4.3

Joe Masseria

14.1

OR: 9 Form: 2.9 Odds: 2.2

Lust

13.4

OR: 11.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

Facethepuckout

13.1

OR: 6.3 Form: 4 Odds: 2.9

15/2

San Aer

OR: 6.3 Form: 2.1 Odds: 2.7

17/2

Hurricane Ivor

OR: 9.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Lust	96	107	65
Verhoyen	92	105	95
Spanish Tenor	90	104	84
Yermanthere	90	107	82
Hurricane Ivor	89	107	86
Something Nice	88	108	84
Joe Masseria	86	106	94
Earls	86	106	90
No More Porter	83	105	95
Cavallo Pazzo	83	97	82
San Aer	75	106	94
Facethepuckout	75	107	93

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Verhoyen	10d ago	Quick return
Yermanthere	13d ago	Quick return
No More Porter	14d ago	Fit
San Aer	14d ago	Fit
Something Nice	18d ago	Fit
Cavallo Pazzo	19d ago	Fit
Lust	25d ago	Fit
Spanish Tenor	25d ago	Fit
Earls	25d ago	Fit
Hurricane Ivor	28d ago	Fit
Facethepuckout	32d ago	Fit
Joe Masseria	49d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Naas over 7f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.