Little Leighs Handicap – Chelmsford (AW)

Chelmsford (AW)

16:30

Little Leighs Handicap

Date 2023-11-04

Distance 1m

Class Class 2

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £13,500

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6 (8)	Enfjaar Bay J:Aidan Keeley(3) T:Roger Varian	J:Aidan Keeley(3) T:Roger Varian	129	—	1-100	96	115	91	35d	—	—	-2	27.9	0.25/1	2 50%
Won his first two starts, including C&D, and two defeats since can be excused; unexposed
1 (1)	Mostabshir Grey J:Richard Kingscote T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Richard Kingscote T:John & Thady Gosden	138	—	-51647	105	108	-	77d	—	—	-2	25.2	0.56/1	9/4 31%
Looked set for the top when sauntering clear at York in May; struggled since; been gelded
10 (7)	Urban Sprawl Chestnut J:Joe Fanning T:Charlie Johnston	J:Joe Fanning T:Charlie Johnston	119	p	940633	86	112	95	10d	—	—	+1	19.3	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Unexposed at 1m and he's run well in all starts at the trip; headgear now given a go
NR (4)	Empirestateofmind Bay J:Jason Hart T:John Quinn	J:Jason Hart T:John Quinn	130	b	095383	95	113	33	35d	—	—	+8	19	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Reliable in defeat this year & has shown aptitude for AW; others still look stronger
3 (6)	Positive Impact Chestnut J:Ross Coakley T:Simon & Ed Crisford	J:Ross Coakley T:Simon & Ed Crisford	131	p	1-0869	96	114	62	63d	—	—	+9	22.1	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Easy winner of 1m h'cap on only Polytrack start; dangerous if bouncing back to that level
2 (2)	Excel Power Bay J:Luke Morris T:Archie Watson	J:Luke Morris T:Archie Watson	134	p	2-6697	99	113	63	44d	—	—	+10	18.1	3.25/1	14 7%
C&D winner off 2lb lower last December; not hit top gear in three runs back from a break
9 (5)	Aalto Bay J:Billy Loughnane T:Ian Williams	J:Billy Loughnane T:Ian Williams	122	—	14-310	89	108	65	21d	—	—	+7	10.8	8.00/1	33 3%
Two wins in France, including AW, but well beaten on last month's stable/British debut
7 (10)	Legend Of Leros Bay J:Harry Davies T:Marco Botti	J:Harry Davies T:Marco Botti	123	—	41-374	90	109	92	18d	—	—	+8	10.7	9.75/1	40 3%
First three runs were most encouraging but his latest two much less so; jury out for now
8 (9)	Forca Timao Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Richard Hannon	J:Cam Hardie T:Richard Hannon	123	—	1-5570	90	110	-	135d	—	—	+15	17.7	9.75/1	40 3%
7f winner at two; yet to shine this year but been gelded & this not quite such a deep race
4 (3)	Azano Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:David O'Meara	J:Daniel Muscutt T:David O'Meara	130	—	536319	95	110	-	28d	—	—	+18	21.1	8.00/1	33 3%
Front-runner; won 7f handicap at Sandown in September; yet to shine in three AW runs

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Enfjaar	2	2	2	2	2
Mostabshir	9/4	9/4	9/4	9/4	9/4
Urban Sprawl	5/1	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Empirestateofmind	7	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2
Positive Impact	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2	6/1
Excel Power	14	11	12	11	12/1
Aalto	33	22	25	25	25
Legend Of Leros	33	40	40	33	33
Forca Timao	40	40	40	33	33
Azano	33	28	28	28	33

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Enfjaar

27.9

OR: 11.5 Form: 7 Odds: 9.4

2nd

Mostabshir

25.2

OR: 13.8 Form: 3 Odds: 8.4

9/4

3rd

Positive Impact

22.1

OR: 11.5 Form: 7 Odds: 3.6

6/1

Azano

21.1

OR: 11.3 Form: 9.1 Odds: 0.8

Urban Sprawl

19.3

OR: 9 Form: 5.1 Odds: 5.2

5/1

Empirestateofmind

OR: 11.3 Form: 4.5 Odds: 3.2

13/2

Excel Power

18.1

OR: 12.3 Form: 3.5 Odds: 2.4

Forca Timao

17.7

OR: 10 Form: 7 Odds: 0.7

Aalto

10.8

OR: 9.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

Legend Of Leros

10.7

OR: 10 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Mostabshir	105	108	—
Excel Power	99	113	63
Enfjaar	96	115	91
Positive Impact	96	114	62
Empirestateofmind	95	113	33
Azano	95	110	—
Legend Of Leros	90	109	92
Forca Timao	90	110	—
Aalto	89	108	65
Urban Sprawl	86	112	95

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Urban Sprawl	10d ago	Quick return
Legend Of Leros	18d ago	Fit
Aalto	21d ago	Fit
Azano	28d ago	Fit
Enfjaar	35d ago	Fit
Empirestateofmind	35d ago	Fit
Excel Power	44d ago	Fit
Positive Impact	63d ago	Fresh
Mostabshir	77d ago	Fresh
Forca Timao	135d ago	Long break