62nd Badger Beer Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)

Wincanton

14:25

Date 2023-11-11

Distance 3m1f30y

Class Class 1

Going Good To Soft

Type Chase

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £41,608

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4	Threeunderthrufive Bay J:Harry Cobden T:Paul Nicholls	J:Harry Cobden T:Paul Nicholls	157	tp	3U684-	147	164	122	203d	—	—	+7	31.7	0.69/1	11/4 27%
4th in the Scottish National; still capable of better following wind surgery
1	Frodon Bay J:Bryony Frost T:Paul Nicholls	J:Bryony Frost T:Paul Nicholls	168	t	33539-	158	164	147	196d	—	—	+18	35.8	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Has earned legendary status down the years; defied the very same mark 12 months ago
7	Certainly Red Chestnut J:Marc Goldstein T:Lydia Richards	J:Marc Goldstein T:Lydia Richards	150	—	11197-	140	165	141	196d	—	—	+25	35.4	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Course form ticks a big box but this demands a career-best from him.
10	Blackjack Magic Bay J:Rex Dingle T:Anthony Honeyball	J:Rex Dingle T:Anthony Honeyball	142	t	/21P1-	132	164	139	224d	—	—	+28	39	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Both chase wins came in small fields but jumps well and unexposed as a stayer
3	The Big Breakaway Chestnut J:Brendan Powell T:Joe Tizzard	J:Brendan Powell T:Joe Tizzard	159	b	/22PF-	149	166	157	210d	—	—	+18	29.3	2.25/1	10 10%
Strong stayer who wouldn't want the ground to dry out; solid chance otherwise
2	Sam Brown Bay J:Jonathan Burke T:Anthony Honeyball	J:Jonathan Burke T:Anthony Honeyball	162	t	5P5FF-	152	163	152	196d	—	—	+19	27.9	2.50/1	11 9%
Smart staying chaser very capable of holding his own in a race of this nature
11	Forward Plan Brown J:Ben Godfrey(3) T:Anthony Honeyball	J:Ben Godfrey(3) T:Anthony Honeyball	142	t	21132-	132	156	135	203d	—	—	+32	38.2	3.25/1	14 7%
Probably progressive but being 7lb out of the weights is the last thing he needs
6	Ashtown Lad Bay J:Tristan Durrell(5) T:Dan Skelton	J:Tristan Durrell(5) T:Dan Skelton	152	—	3123P-	142	163	157	211d	—	—	+24	31.9	3.75/1	16 6%
Only 4lb higher than for last season's Becher Chase win; chance if fit enough
5	Courtland Bay J:James Bowen T:Peter Bowen	J:James Bowen T:Peter Bowen	154	—	111216	144	164	142	13d	—	—	+35	39.2	4.75/1	20 5%
Had a good year but this test of stamina on softish ground might be too much
8	Ballygrifincottage Bay J:Lorcan Williams T:Dan Skelton	J:Lorcan Williams T:Dan Skelton	150	tp	/1PP-3	140	165	138	21d	—	—	+22	26.9	4.75/1	20 5%
Ran a laboured race back from wind surgery at Newton Abbot only three weeks ago
9	Gustavian Bay J:Richie McLernon T:Anthony Honeyball	J:Richie McLernon T:Anthony Honeyball	147	t	/431F-	137	164	132	238d	—	—	+26	30	6.00/1	25 4%
Has competitive form off this mark but not in races this strong

Horse	bet365	Coral
Threeunderthrufive	11/4	9/4
Frodon	5	9/2
Certainly Red	7	15/2
Blackjack Magic	7	13/2
The Big Breakaway	10	17/2
Sam Brown	10	11
Forward Plan	14	14
Ashtown Lad	16	16
Courtland	20	20
Ballygrifincottage	20	20
Gustavian	25	22

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Courtland

39.2

OR: 23.5 Form: 14.5 Odds: 1.2

2nd

Blackjack Magic

OR: 20.5 Form: 15.5 Odds: 3.1

13/2

3rd

Forward Plan

38.2

OR: 20.5 Form: 16.1 Odds: 1.6

Frodon

35.8

OR: 27 Form: 3.6 Odds: 5.2

9/2

Certainly Red

35.4

OR: 22.5 Form: 10 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Ashtown Lad

31.9

OR: 23 Form: 6.7 Odds: 2.2

Threeunderthrufive

31.7

OR: 24.3 Form: 0.2 Odds: 7.3

11/4

Gustavian

OR: 21.8 Form: 7 Odds: 1.2

The Big Breakaway

29.3

OR: 24.8 Form: 1.5 Odds: 3.1

Sam Brown

27.9

OR: 25.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

Ballygrifincottage

26.9

OR: 22.5 Form: 3 Odds: 1.4

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Frodon	158	164	147
Sam Brown	152	163	152
The Big Breakaway	149	166	157
Threeunderthrufive	147	164	122
Courtland	144	164	142
Ashtown Lad	142	163	157
Certainly Red	140	165	141
Ballygrifincottage	140	165	138
Gustavian	137	164	132
Blackjack Magic	132	164	139
Forward Plan	132	156	135

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Courtland	13d ago	Quick return
Ballygrifincottage	21d ago	Fit
Frodon	196d ago	Long break
Certainly Red	196d ago	Long break
Sam Brown	196d ago	Long break
Threeunderthrufive	203d ago	Long break
Forward Plan	203d ago	Long break
The Big Breakaway	210d ago	Long break
Ashtown Lad	211d ago	Long break
Blackjack Magic	224d ago	Long break
Gustavian	238d ago	Long break