CCR Remembrance Day Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)

Chelmsford (AW)

17:00

Date 2023-11-11

Distance 7f

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,725

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (4)	Calm Waters Bay J:Kieran Shoemark T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Kieran Shoemark T:John & Thady Gosden	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-23	10.6	0.47/1	15/8 35%
120,000euros foal; bred to be smart and makes her debut at a realistic level; interesting
11 (5)	Qatar Moon Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:Hilal Kobeissi	J:Rossa Ryan T:Hilal Kobeissi	126	—	92	-	84	42	37d	—	—	-12	12.3	0.63/1	5/2 29%
7lb better off for a nose with Machiavellian Lady on last month's C&D form; solid claims
9 (6)	Tayala Bay J:Hector Crouch T:Ed Walker	J:Hector Crouch T:Ed Walker	128	—	5353	70	81	61	16d	—	—	-2	13.9	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Promise from 6f-8.5f; should give her running but vulnerable to improvers
3 (3)	The African Queen Chestnut J:Richard Kingscote T:Charlie Johnston	J:Richard Kingscote T:Charlie Johnston	133	—	19	-	85	-	107d	—	—	+1	9.5	2.50/1	11 9%
Made all to win a small-field Brighton maiden on debut; highly tried latest; unexposed
1 (1)	Machiavellian Lady Bay J:Charles Bishop T:Eve Johnson Houghton	J:Charles Bishop T:Eve Johnson Houghton	135	—	31	73	77	36	37d	—	—	+11	20.5	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Two promising runs, winning over C&D on her second start; travels strongly; more to come
2 (12)	Queues Likely Bay J:Billy Loughnane T:J S Moore	J:Billy Loughnane T:J S Moore	133	b	714673	66	74	-	27d	—	—	+5	10.6	4.75/1	20 5%
5f turf winner; fair third upped to this trip latest; more needed to defy her penalty
6 (2)	Inbetweenus Bay J:Robert Havlin T:Gay Kelleway	J:Robert Havlin T:Gay Kelleway	128	—	56	-	61	-	71d	—	—	-4	1.6	5.25/1	22 5%
Debut run was better than last time; needs to raise her game to take this
10 (9)	Checkmeout Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Roger Varian	J:Jack Mitchell T:Roger Varian	126	—	54564	60	71	48	16d	—	—	-1	3.9	5.25/1	22 5%
Limitations seem exposed and improvement will be required to even reach the frame
7 (7)	Keep My Secret Bay J:Marco Ghiani T:Marco Botti	J:Marco Ghiani T:Marco Botti	128	—	55	-	68	30	18d	—	—	-2	0.8	9.75/1	40 3%
Modest form in two Wolverhampton maidens; more required to trouble the principals
8 (8)	Spirit Charmer Bay J:David Probert T:Andrew Balding	J:David Probert T:Andrew Balding	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-2	0.7	8.00/1	33 3%
Half-sister to two winners out of an AW winner; perhaps one for a bit further in time
5 (10)	Cordelin Bay J:Stefano Cherchi T:James Ferguson	J:Stefano Cherchi T:James Ferguson	128	t	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.4	19.75/1	80 1%
Half-sister to fair 5f-6f winner Stay Smart (RPR 81); dam a 7f AW 2yo winner; tongue-tied
12 (11)	Where Is The Love Bay J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Joseph Parr	J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Joseph Parr	126	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.3	37.25/1	150 1%
Half-sister to 2 winners out of a middle-distance winner; others have more pressing claims

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Calm Waters	6/4	13/8	15/8	13/8	13/8
Qatar Moon	5/2	5/2	9/4	5/2	5/2
Tayala	11/2	5	11/2	5	6
The African Queen	11	10	10/1	10	10
Machiavellian Lady	9	8	17/2	8	17/2
Queues Likely	20	18	20	18	18
Inbetweenus	20	20	22	18	18
Checkmeout	22	20	20	20	18
Keep My Secret	40	33	33	28	40
Spirit Charmer	33	33	33	33	33
Cordelin	80	80	80	80	66
Where Is The Love	100	150	150	125	125

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Machiavellian Lady

20.5

OR: 5.8 Form: 12.1 Odds: 2.7

17/2

2nd

Tayala

13.9

OR: 5 Form: 4.5 Odds: 4.4

11/2

3rd

Qatar Moon

12.3

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 7.3

5/2

Calm Waters

10.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 10.6

15/8

Queues Likely

10.6

OR: 4 Form: 5 Odds: 1.6

The African Queen

9.5

OR: 0 Form: 7 Odds: 2.5

Checkmeout

3.9

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Inbetweenus

1.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Keep My Secret

0.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

Spirit Charmer

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Cordelin

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

Where Is The Love

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

150

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Machiavellian Lady	73	77	36
Tayala	70	81	61
Queues Likely	66	74	—
Checkmeout	60	71	48
Calm Waters	—	—	—
Qatar Moon	—	84	42
The African Queen	—	85	—
Inbetweenus	—	61	—
Keep My Secret	—	68	30
Spirit Charmer	—	—	—
Cordelin	—	—	—
Where Is The Love	—	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Tayala	16d ago	Fit
Checkmeout	16d ago	Fit
Keep My Secret	18d ago	Fit
Queues Likely	27d ago	Fit
Qatar Moon	37d ago	Fit
Machiavellian Lady	37d ago	Fit
Inbetweenus	71d ago	Fresh
The African Queen	107d ago	Long break
Calm Waters	—	—
Spirit Charmer	—	—
Cordelin	—	—
Where Is The Love	—	—