Stay In Control At BetUK Handicap (Div II) – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

17:50

Stay In Control At BetUK Handicap (Div II)

Date 2023-11-15

Distance 6f

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £5,129

Winning Time 1m 12.36s (slow by 1.96s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Secret Road (IRE) James Sullivan · Tristan Davidson	12/1	Won
2nd	Thaki (IRE) Morgan Cole · Katie Scott	40/1	.5
3rd	Razzam (IRE) Alistair Rawlinson · Michael Appleby	9/2	2.25
4th	Abolish (GB) Andrew Mullen · Tony Carroll	100/30F	0.05
5th	Bellagio Man (IRE) Harry Russell · Antony Brittain	5/1	1
6th	Mersea (FR) Clifford Lee · Grant Tuer	11/2	.75
7th	Mister Bluebird (GB) P J McDonald · Heather Main	6/1	0.2
8th	Giogiobbo (GB) Dale Swift · Scott Dixon	40/1	2.75
9th	Misty Blues (IRE) Duran Fentiman · Tim Easterby	14/1	2.5
10th	As If By Chance (GB) Faye McManoman · Nigel Tinkler	8/1	2.5

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (4)	Mister Bluebird Grey J:P J McDonald T:Heather Main	J:P J McDonald T:Heather Main	137	p	503079	82	94	-	1d	—	—	-2	13.3	1.13/1	9/2 18%
On his last winning mark but mixed record since a 7f turf win in June
8 (8)	Abolish Bay J:Andrew Mullen T:Tony Carroll	J:Andrew Mullen T:Tony Carroll	123	p	908077	68	82	80	13d	—	—	-7	8.9	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Tumbled down the weights in the last 13 months; revival likely to be predicted by betting
4 (5)	Razzam Brown J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	131	—	312377	76	95	76	14d	—	—	+1	15.9	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Good start for this yard but his form has dipped markedly the last twice
5 (10)	Mersea Bay J:Clifford Lee T:Grant Tuer	J:Clifford Lee T:Grant Tuer	128	—	345698	73	93	71	13d	—	—	-4	9.8	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Little luck in recent starts & latest run easy to excuse (raced wide); dangerous mark
2 (1)	Bellagio Man Bay J:Harry Russell T:Antony Brittain	J:Harry Russell T:Antony Brittain	135	p	580148	80	93	73	5d	—	—	+3	16.5	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Penultimate run suggests he's still on a handy mark; bad draw last week & perhaps here too
3 (9)	As If By Chance Bay J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	133	—	167190	78	93	-	62d	—	—	+6	14.5	2.00/1	9 11%
Two 6f wins this summer; fully effective here and should leave two quiet runs behind him
7 (6)	Misty Blues Bay J:Duran Fentiman T:Tim Easterby	J:Duran Fentiman T:Tim Easterby	125	—	-60073	70	96	68	15d	—	—	0	11.1	2.13/1	17/2 11%
First significant promise this year when 3rd of 12 over C&D two weeks ago; respected
10 (3)	Secret Road Grey J:James Sullivan T:Tristan Davidson	J:James Sullivan T:Tristan Davidson	119	h	430740	64	94	-	34d	—	—	0	5.7	6.75/1	28 4%
Yet to match peak Irish form in 4 runs for this yard; eligible for weaker races than this
6 (7)	Giogiobbo Bay J:Dale Swift T:Scott Dixon	J:Dale Swift T:Scott Dixon	128	p	44114-	73	85	-	451d	—	—	+16	18.5	8.00/1	33 3%
Prolific winner and returns to action off a fair mark; 451-day absence the obvious concern
9 (2)	Thaki Bay J:Morgan Cole(5) T:Katie Scott	J:Morgan Cole(5) T:Katie Scott	122	t	671080	67	95	37	15d	—	—	+5	8	8.00/1	33 3%
Conditions fine and on a handy mark but usually plies his trade at a lower level

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Mister Bluebird	5	9/2	4	9/2	9/2
Abolish	9/2	9/2	5	9/2	9/2
Razzam	11/2	5	11/2	9/2	9/2
Mersea	9/2	5	9/2	5	5
Bellagio Man	9/2	9/2	11/2	9/2	9/2
As If By Chance	9	9	15/2	9	9
Misty Blues	8	17/2	6	8	17/2
Secret Road	20	22	12	28	25
Giogiobbo	33	33	25	33	33
Thaki	33	33	25	28	33

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Giogiobbo

18.5

OR: 5.8 Form: 12 Odds: 0.8

2nd

Bellagio Man

16.5

OR: 7.5 Form: 5 Odds: 4

11/2

3rd

Razzam

15.9

OR: 6.5 Form: 5 Odds: 4.4

11/2

As If By Chance

14.5

OR: 7 Form: 5 Odds: 2.5

Mister Bluebird

13.3

OR: 8 Form: 0.9 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Misty Blues

11.1

OR: 5 Form: 3 Odds: 3.1

17/2

Mersea

9.8

OR: 5.8 Form: 0 Odds: 4

9/2

Abolish

8.9

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Thaki

OR: 4.3 Form: 3 Odds: 0.8

Secret Road

5.7

OR: 3.5 Form: 0.6 Odds: 1.6

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Mister Bluebird	82	94	—
Bellagio Man	80	93	73
As If By Chance	78	93	—
Razzam	76	95	76
Mersea	73	93	71
Giogiobbo	73	85	—
Misty Blues	70	96	68
Abolish	68	82	80
Thaki	67	95	37
Secret Road	64	94	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Mister Bluebird	1d ago	Quick return
Bellagio Man	5d ago	Quick return
Abolish	13d ago	Quick return
Mersea	13d ago	Quick return
Razzam	14d ago	Fit
Misty Blues	15d ago	Fit
Thaki	15d ago	Fit
Secret Road	34d ago	Fit
As If By Chance	62d ago	Fresh
Giogiobbo	451d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.