Bar One Racing "Always Gamble Responsibly" Handicap – Dundalk (AW)

Dundalk (AW)

19:45

Bar One Racing "Always Gamble Responsibly" Handicap

Date 2023-11-17

Distance 1m2f150y

Class

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize €9,735

Runners (15)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5 (14)	Jaafel Bay J:W J Lee T:James McAuley	J:W J Lee T:James McAuley	129	t	945312	79	98	83	14d	—	—	+7	26.5	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Just denied by Luke Short over 1m4f last time; raised another 2lb but can go close again
13 (15)	Fairytale Princess Bay J:James Ryan(5) T:G M Lyons	J:James Ryan(5) T:G M Lyons	121	—	069121	74	92	79	16d	—	—	+12	29.5	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Raised 9lb for last win but a capable claimer takes off 5lb; draw not a help but a player
NR (6)	Luke Short Bay J:TBC T:Noel Meade	J: T:Noel Meade	138	p	293101	88	92	81	14d	—	—	-4	40.3	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Beat Jaafel over 1m4f last time; raised 5lb for that but is effective over this trip too
1 (11)	Longbourn Bay J:Scott McCullagh(3) T:Ross O'Sullivan	J:Scott McCullagh(3) T:Ross O'Sullivan	143	t	903513	93	95	84	68d	—	—	+11	26.1	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Won a premier handicap over C&D before 3rd in a Curragh premier handicap; respected
12 (12)	New Year Honours Bay J:Declan McDonogh T:Gordon Elliott	J:Declan McDonogh T:Gordon Elliott	123	t	86/51-	73	92	-	—	—	—	+1	7.7	2.75/1	12 8%
Hurdle winner won over 1m4f on AW in UK in 2022; capable of running well
7 (4)	Benavente Bay J:Chris Hayes T:Kevin Thomas Coleman	J:Chris Hayes T:Kevin Thomas Coleman	127	—	762451	77	100	75	14d	—	—	+10	21.6	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Won over 1m two weeks ago and was raised 4lb for that; unproven over this trip
4 (10)	Solar Breeze Bay J:Robbie Colgan T:Ms Sheila Lavery	J:Robbie Colgan T:Ms Sheila Lavery	130	t	609610	80	96	68	26d	—	—	+10	16.2	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Forgiven a poor run on heavy ground last time but seems on a stiff mark
8 (9)	Autocrat Bay J:Shane Foley T:James McAuley	J:Shane Foley T:James McAuley	125	p	098516	78	99	72	14d	—	—	+7	16.7	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Won a C&D claimer last month; below that level behind Luke Short in a 1m4f handicap since
11 (7)	Lecale's Approach Bay J:Danny Sheehy(3) T:Miss Natalia Lupini	J:Danny Sheehy(3) T:Miss Natalia Lupini	124	—	1-49	77	93	66	14d	—	—	+11	15	5.00/1	20/1 5%
A 1m winner here a year ago; might have found 1m4f too far last time; not ruled out
6 (2)	War Correspondent Grey J:Gary Carroll T:R P Cody	J:Gary Carroll T:R P Cody	128	t	63-434	78	99	-	—	—	—	+2	9.1	2.75/1	12 8%
Some decent runs over 1m4f earlier this year and ran well on sole start at this track
R15 (8)	Garrick Painter Bay J:Sean D Bowen(5) T:Noel C Kelly	J:Sean D Bowen(5) T:Noel C Kelly	119	—	478620	72	99	75	9d	—	—	+7	9.9	6.75/1	28 4%
Runner-up in a C&D claimer two starts ago; below that form over 1m for this yard; reserve
10 (5)	Higher Kingdom Bay J:Siobhan Rutledge(3) T:John C McConnell	J:Siobhan Rutledge(3) T:John C McConnell	125	—	230600	75	98	70	14d	—	—	+4	7.7	8.00/1	33 3%
Now 6lb lower than for last win; can be slowly away and has to get back to form
3 (13)	Timourid Bay J:Conor Stone-Walsh(7) T:Paul W Flynn	J:Conor Stone-Walsh(7) T:Paul W Flynn	133	tp	220100	83	97	-	—	—	—	+11	15.3	6.00/1	25 4%
Hit and miss performer is a dual winner at this track so can't be dismissed
9 (1)	Boom Boom Boom Chestnut J:Sean Davis T:C Byrnes	J:Sean Davis T:C Byrnes	125	p	01530-	75	94	-	—	—	—	+7	13	8.00/1	33 3%
Won over 1m4f at this track a year ago and some good runs in defeat after up to 2m
14 (3)	Red Special Chestnut J:Jamie Powell(3) T:W McCreery	J:Jamie Powell(3) T:W McCreery	121	v	688	74	92	57	128d	—	—	+3	7.1	8.00/1	33 3%
Similar efforts in three maiden runs; worth checking for market confidence on handicap bow

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Jaafel	7/2	7/2	3	7/2	7/2
Fairytale Princess	4	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2
Luke Short	7	6	13/2	6	6
Longbourn	5	5/1	4	5	5
New Year Honours	12	12	11/1	12	12
Benavente	6	6	11/2	6	6/1
Solar Breeze	12	14/1	12	14/1	14
Autocrat	8	17/2	15/2	17/2	9
Lecale's Approach	16	20/1	16	18	16/1
War Correspondent	12	9/1	10	10/1	10
Garrick Painter	28	28	25	28	25
Higher Kingdom	33	33	25	33	33
Timourid	25	25	22	25	25
Boom Boom Boom	25	33	28	33	33
Red Special	33	33	28	33	33

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Luke Short

40.3

OR: 9.5 Form: 15.9 Odds: 14.9

13/2

2nd

Fairytale Princess

29.5

OR: 6 Form: 18.5 Odds: 5

7/2

3rd

Jaafel

26.5

OR: 7.3 Form: 13.5 Odds: 5.7

7/2

Longbourn

26.1

OR: 10.8 Form: 10.9 Odds: 4.4

5/1

Benavente

21.6

OR: 6.8 Form: 11.5 Odds: 3.3

6/1

Autocrat

16.7

OR: 7 Form: 7 Odds: 2.7

17/2

Solar Breeze

16.2

OR: 7.5 Form: 7 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Timourid

15.3

OR: 8.3 Form: 6 Odds: 1.1

Lecale's Approach

OR: 6.8 Form: 7 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Boom Boom Boom

OR: 6.3 Form: 5.1 Odds: 1.6

Garrick Painter

9.9

OR: 5.5 Form: 3.5 Odds: 0.9

War Correspondent

9.1

OR: 7 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

New Year Honours

7.7

OR: 5.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

Higher Kingdom

7.7

OR: 6.3 Form: 0.6 Odds: 0.9

Red Special

7.1

OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Longbourn	93	95	84
Luke Short	88	92	81
Timourid	83	97	—
Solar Breeze	80	96	68
Jaafel	79	98	83
Autocrat	78	99	72
War Correspondent	78	99	—
Benavente	77	100	75
Lecale's Approach	77	93	66
Higher Kingdom	75	98	70
Boom Boom Boom	75	94	—
Fairytale Princess	74	92	79
Red Special	74	92	57
New Year Honours	73	92	—
Garrick Painter	72	99	75

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Garrick Painter	9d ago	Quick return
Jaafel	14d ago	Fit
Luke Short	14d ago	Fit
Benavente	14d ago	Fit
Autocrat	14d ago	Fit
Lecale's Approach	14d ago	Fit
Higher Kingdom	14d ago	Fit
Fairytale Princess	16d ago	Fit
Solar Breeze	26d ago	Fit
Longbourn	68d ago	Fresh
Red Special	128d ago	Long break
New Year Honours	—	—
War Correspondent	—	—
Timourid	—	—
Boom Boom Boom	—	—